2020 Fantasy Values

Ryan Knaus
Rotoworld

We're three weeks into 2020 and there's a large enough sample size to begin drawing conclusions. Yes, the looming trade deadline and eventual lunacy of March and April might ruin even the best laid plans, but it's worth exploring recent trends to look for value high and low.

I'll start with top-200 values (Jan. 1 through Jan. 20) for 8-cat, 9-cat and points leagues. There are innumerable variations on leagues, of course, but we can use these as baselines – for points leagues it's the familiar, straightforward scoring format used by FanDuel, Yahoo and NBA.com (Points = 1, Rebounds = 1.2, Assists = 1.5, Steals = 3, Blocks =3, Turnovers = -1). You can view/download the list here via Google Sheets.

For players to qualify for the list, they had to meet a few cutoffs. The first was a minimum of 15 minutes per game, which jettisoned 138 players. You won't miss them, but the list includes plenty of big men like Jakob Poeltl, Robin Lopez, Damian Jones, Naz Reid, Harry Giles and Boban Marjanovic and Isaiah Hartenstein. Otherwise, it's mostly scrubs.

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I was going to make five games played the cutoff, but that would have eliminated Karl-Anthony Towns, Thomas Bryant and a few other worthy players. Instead, I shifted it to a mere three games in January. That means, of course, that we bid farewell to Paul George, Mike Conley and Joel Embiid (among others). I then trimmed the list to the top-200 guys based on 8-cat value, which tends to split the difference between most fantasy formats. Going 200 deep also ensures most relevant guys will be included. There's a category for 9-cat with FT% punted...more on that later.

Editor's Note: Drafting is only half the battle. Dominate all season long with our Season Pass! Use our NEW Start/Sit Tool, Trade Analyzer, Weekly Tiers, Rest-of-Season Rankings, Projections and more on your way to a championship! Click here for more!

Name

Rank (8-cat)

8-cat

9-cat

9-cat (PUNT FT%)

NBA Official Points

Kawhi Leonard

1

10.28

8.71

7.20

52.49

Anthony Davis

2

10.24

9.69

7.38

48.60

Devin Booker

3

8.34

5.86

2.21

46.82

Trae Young

4

8.31

4.64

3.39

52.18

James Harden

5

7.30

4.02

1.72

53.25

Damian Lillard

6

7.05

6.12

4.20

47.47

Zach LaVine

7

7.00

5.89

5.27

47.29

LeBron James

8

6.37

4.01

4.56

52.84

DeMar DeRozan

9

6.37

5.28

2.58

45.35

Jrue Holiday

10

5.83

3.70

1.82

37.27

Brandon Ingram

11

5.65

3.65

2.09

44.49

Kyrie Irving

12

5.58

5.51

5.25

42.80

Ben Simmons

13

5.55

5.09

7.80

52.82

Norman Powell

14

5.39

5.91

4.63

34.46

Hassan Whiteside

15

5.34

5.22

6.18

46.86

Nikola Jokic

16

4.92

3.62

3.86

45.52

De'Aaron Fox

17

4.54

2.30

3.16

45.72

Luka Doncic

18

4.51

1.43

2.94

52.42

Russell Westbrook

19

4.50

2.02

4.47

53.53

Rudy Gobert

20

4.30

4.82

6.28

45.89

Clint Capela

21

4.24

4.52

3.86

40.21

Andre Drummond

22

4.14

1.98

4.67

46.02

Lou Williams

23

4.13

2.59

0.24

35.54

Ja Morant

24

3.96

1.48

0.62

37.70

Deandre Ayton

25

3.77

3.65

3.00

41.93

Chris Paul

26

3.68

3.15

2.53

36.79

Fred VanVleet

27

3.56

4.29

5.30

39.68

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

28

3.53

3.68

2.72

39.25

D'Angelo Russell

29

3.50

1.45

0.77

41.32

Robert Covington

30

3.39

4.03

4.49

33.72

Jonas Valanciunas

31

3.33

3.23

3.51

38.80

Jimmy Butler

32

3.29

2.82

2.00

40.53

Khris Middleton

33

3.28

3.38

2.42

35.78

Jayson Tatum

34

3.25

3.13

2.58

38.94

Giannis Antetokounmpo

35

3.23

1.18

5.16

53.23

Lonzo Ball

36

3.17

1.65

2.44

40.30

Nikola Vucevic

37

3.15

3.10

2.79

42.28

Danilo Gallinari

38

2.90

3.40

1.45

34.16

Marcus Smart

39

2.89

3.04

2.50

32.10

Derrick Favors

40

2.88

3.77

4.05

35.16

Jaren Jackson Jr.

41

2.81

3.31

3.53

33.17

Donovan Mitchell

42

2.77

2.19

0.74

34.60

Terry Rozier

43

2.71

2.97

2.08

34.64

Bam Adebayo

44

2.63

1.76

2.69

39.52

Kyle Lowry

45

2.59

2.25

1.67

38.00

Domantas Sabonis

46

2.52

1.11

2.12

41.12

Devonte' Graham

47

2.15

0.74

-0.49

32.59

Karl-Anthony Towns

48

2.08

1.38

-0.34

36.60

Nemanja Bjelica

49

2.07

2.21

2.06

30.96

LaMarcus Aldridge

50

2.00

2.52

1.77

32.84

John Collins

51

1.94

1.72

1.97

35.18

Buddy Hield

52

1.93

0.52

0.12

32.58

Kemba Walker

53

1.92

1.58

1.28

33.03

Wendell Carter Jr.

54

1.86

0.80

-0.31

32.20

Jamal Murray

55

1.77

2.04

0.35

33.69

Kelly Oubre Jr.

56

1.73

2.46

3.47

36.80

Julius Randle

57

1.62

0.33

0.46

38.87

Ricky Rubio

58

1.59

0.07

0.37

34.31

Kevin Love

59

1.57

0.64

-0.11

34.18

Derrick Rose

60

1.50

0.09

-1.07

34.77

Will Barton

61

1.37

1.86

1.54

33.79

Dillon Brooks

62

1.31

2.04

1.53

31.69

Marc Gasol

63

1.25

1.18

2.01

28.38

Patrick Beverley

64

1.17

1.37

1.58

31.23

Bojan Bogdanovic

65

1.04

-0.16

-2.34

26.87

Joe Ingles

66

0.93

1.13

1.10

29.44

Maxi Kleber

67

0.77

1.62

1.08

25.12

Tobias Harris

68

0.64

1.50

1.29

33.23

Kevin Huerter

69

0.63

0.72

0.67

29.62

Jae Crowder

70

0.63

1.50

1.05

28.00

Evan Fournier

71

0.58

0.35

-0.40

28.50

Collin Sexton

72

0.58

-0.15

-1.11

31.32

Nerlens Noel

73

0.54

2.34

1.76

25.35

Tristan Thompson

74

0.54

-0.12

-0.41

31.81

Alec Burks

75

0.46

0.23

-2.49

30.41

Bradley Beal

76

0.45

-0.96

-2.66

31.88

Brook Lopez

77

0.40

1.56

1.87

27.42

Pascal Siakam

78

0.39

0.06

-0.52

30.14

Markelle Fultz

79

0.38

-0.15

-0.09

32.06

T.J. Warren

80

0.32

0.73

0.57

30.29

Myles Turner

81

0.28

0.80

0.73

29.80

Al Horford

82

0.04

0.54

0.68

31.44

JaVale McGee

83

0.00

0.95

1.66

26.35

Kendrick Nunn

84

-0.01

0.19

-0.45

27.54

Gordon Hayward

85

-0.06

0.19

-0.38

29.81

Richaun Holmes

86

-0.20

-0.18

0.58

28.70

Marcus Morris

87

-0.26

0.65

2.25

33.90

Donte DiVincenzo

88

-0.33

0.16

0.24

25.10

Gorgui Dieng

89

-0.40

-0.15

-0.32

25.67

P.J. Washington

90

-0.48

-1.29

-1.30

26.83

Eric Bledsoe

91

-0.54

-0.67

-1.49

26.51

Malcolm Brogdon

92

-0.56

-1.11

-1.93

32.36

J.J. Redick

93

-0.62

0.27

-1.12

23.57

Tim Hardaway Jr.

94

-0.62

0.57

0.93

27.80

Jaylen Brown

95

-0.66

-1.95

-1.60

30.63

Carmelo Anthony

96

-0.70

-0.45

-0.81

28.43

Troy Brown

97

-0.71

-0.41

-0.34

27.81

Terrence Ross

98

-0.72

0.21

0.25

25.19

Daniel Theis

99

-0.74

0.21

0.36

25.49

Josh Richardson

100

-0.81

-1.50

-2.67

27.18

Michael Porter Jr.

101

-0.81

-0.19

-0.19

23.99

Derrick White

102

-0.92

0.03

-0.79

24.08

Marvin Bagley

103

-0.96

-0.49

-0.69

30.75

Serge Ibaka

104

-0.99

-1.45

-0.80

30.67

Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk

105

-1.00

-0.70

-0.98

21.58

De'Anthony Melton

106

-1.05

-0.67

-1.27

23.79

Draymond Green

107

-1.07

-1.25

-1.51

24.99

Darius Garland

108

-1.10

-2.60

-3.19

26.06

Lauri Markkanen

109

-1.12

-0.68

-1.08

25.25

Josh Hart

110

-1.17

-0.76

-0.38

24.10

OG Anunoby

111

-1.21

-0.59

-0.88

22.92

Jarrett Culver

112

-1.21

-1.55

-0.79

27.27

Dejounte Murray

113

-1.24

-1.10

-1.08

24.49

Trevor Ariza

114

-1.24

-0.36

-0.25

22.27

Justin Holiday

115

-1.26

0.01

0.24

20.71

Dennis Schroder

116

-1.26

-1.79

-1.78

27.48

Dwight Powell

117

-1.28

-0.66

-0.02

26.28

Kris Dunn

118

-1.29

-1.53

-1.37

22.82

Omari Spellman

119

-1.30

-0.56

-0.65

22.21

Mitchell Robinson

120

-1.31

-0.38

0.29

22.51

Taurean Prince

121

-1.35

-1.79

-1.69

24.29

Steven Adams

122

-1.36

-0.95

-0.12

29.12

Dwight Howard

123

-1.40

-1.10

0.66

28.00

Shabazz Napier

124

-1.42

-1.95

-2.36

23.98

Mikal Bridges

125

-1.43

-0.80

-0.73

20.22

Damion Lee

126

-1.43

-1.77

-2.42

25.76

Bruce Brown

127

-1.44

-0.82

-1.00

25.51

Danny Green

128

-1.53

-0.08

0.71

23.44

Aaron Gordon

129

-1.57

-1.91

-1.04

28.56

Thaddeus Young

130

-1.57

-0.84

-0.43

22.78

C.J. McCollum

131

-1.60

-0.73

-0.04

29.91

Glenn Robinson III

132

-1.65

-1.72

-1.92

24.36

Dorian Finney-Smith

133

-1.66

-0.81

-0.64

23.16

Enes Kanter

134

-1.69

-1.64

-1.59

25.09

Cam Reddish

135

-1.69

-1.43

-1.72

21.50

Jeremy Lamb

136

-1.70

-0.85

-1.50

23.00

Miles Bridges

137

-1.71

-1.93

-2.39

24.29

Ish Smith

138

-1.74

-1.75

-0.84

29.33

Josh Okogie

139

-1.74

-1.50

-1.22

21.65

Jarrett Allen

140

-1.79

-0.95

-0.07

26.08

Christian Wood

141

-1.87

-1.46

-1.95

22.59

Davis Bertans

142

-2.10

-1.79

-2.11

21.84

Eric Paschall

143

-2.11

-1.92

-1.92

24.35

DeAndre Jordan

144

-2.17

-2.24

-2.21

21.94

Ian Mahinmi

145

-2.23

-2.14

-1.00

23.52

Andrew Wiggins

146

-2.33

-2.91

-2.92

27.76

Derrick Jones Jr.

147

-2.34

-1.28

-1.80

21.60

Brandon Clarke

148

-2.39

-1.30

-1.99

22.13

Cedi Osman

149

-2.41

-2.26

-2.26

20.51

Harrison Barnes

150

-2.45

-1.36

-1.65

23.64

Elfrid Payton

151

-2.57

-2.69

-1.52

27.71

D.J. Augustin

152

-2.60

-2.76

-3.24

24.08

Matisse Thybulle

153

-2.63

-1.90

-1.57

19.84

Spencer Dinwiddie

154

-2.66

-4.07

-2.74

31.24

Tomas Satoransky

155

-2.71

-2.66

-3.43

22.89

Jordan McRae

156

-2.71

-3.05

-2.81

27.89

Goran Dragic

157

-2.77

-4.07

-3.56

23.22

Jordan Clarkson

158

-2.80

-2.17

-1.97

21.76

Seth Curry

159

-2.81

-1.96

-1.93

19.91

Ben McLemore

160

-2.84

-2.11

-2.11

16.38

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

161

-2.85

-2.00

-1.44

23.03

RJ Barrett

162

-2.90

-3.60

-3.13

25.13

Terence Davis

163

-2.96

-3.06

-3.40

18.67

Reggie Bullock

164

-2.96

-1.69

-1.77

19.24

Royce O'Neale

165

-3.06

-1.90

-2.21

18.82

Sekou Doumbouya

166

-3.09

-2.35

-1.80

21.88

Jeff Teague

167

-3.10

-3.84

-4.45

18.89

James Johnson

168

-3.15

-1.95

-1.37

18.76

Alex Len

169

-3.23

-2.31

-1.22

25.45

Nicolo Melli

170

-3.25

-2.67

-3.18

15.51

Ivica Zubac

171

-3.28

-1.88

-1.72

19.90

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

172

-3.29

-2.13

-2.79

18.36

Daniel Gafford

173

-3.32

-2.58

-2.08

17.65

Larry Nance

174

-3.39

-2.44

-0.76

20.34

Wilson Chandler

175

-3.45

-2.86

-3.12

16.63

Gary Harris

176

-3.46

-2.73

-2.99

20.12

Isaac Bonga

177

-3.48

-2.42

-2.14

17.44

Willie Cauley-Stein

178

-3.48

-2.27

-1.54

21.40

Malik Beasley

179

-3.49

-2.45

-3.03

16.51

Meyers Leonard

180

-3.52

-2.14

-2.22

18.33

Kyle Kuzma

181

-3.53

-3.22

-3.13

24.61

Rudy Gay

182

-3.57

-2.68

-2.69

21.19

Mo Bamba

183

-3.65

-2.33

-2.03

18.26

Jerami Grant

184

-3.73

-2.67

-2.20

21.51

Markieff Morris

185

-3.73

-2.78

-3.15

18.80

Kent Bazemore

186

-3.76

-3.26

-3.12

19.87

Duncan Robinson

187

-3.76

-2.92

-3.00

17.92

Patty Mills

188

-3.78

-2.83

-3.47

16.50

Frank Ntilikina

189

-3.78

-3.88

-4.48

17.81

Joe Harris

190

-3.80

-4.14

-3.64

21.00

Tyler Herro

191

-3.81

-3.07

-3.04

18.71

JaMychal Green

192

-3.81

-3.34

-3.73

17.39

Luke Kornet

193

-3.84

-2.70

-2.29

17.24

Montrezl Harrell

194

-3.86

-3.93

0.32

33.74

Bogdan Bogdanovic

195

-3.89

-4.23

-3.81

20.87

John Henson

196

-4.00

-2.91

-2.92

18.90

Tony Snell

197

-4.02

-2.53

-2.74

15.15

De'Andre Hunter

198

-4.10

-3.69

-3.70

18.03

Jaxson Hayes

199

-4.31

-3.26

-1.08

22.46

Jahlil Okafor

200

-4.35

-3.88

-2.81

21.35

 

As I mentioned prior to this list, I opted to give 'Punt FT%' its own column. That's somewhat self-serving, because I recently traded Brandon Ingram for Ben Simmons in the Rotoworld staff league. Yes, Simmons is playing better lately due to the absence of Joel Embiid (left hand surgery). He's been the No. 1 player in 9-cat when you punt FT%, though, and he's inside the top-10 on the season, whereas Ingram isn't even second-round without FT%. I have a pure punt-FT% team that includes Andre Drummond, Russell Westbrook, Julius Randle and others, so this move just made sense for me.

It's an interesting trade, though, because while it helps my team specifically due to the punt-FT% build, it makes the GM I traded with objectively better in a 9-cat league – and he's already sitting at No. 1. Everyone else in the league might be upset, but I had to make the move that I thought helped my team – and without Jonathan Isaac my team has been struggling, so I wanted to shake things up anyway. Plus, I'm slightly nervous about Ingram since he's had a few flare-ups of knee soreness, Zion Williamson's return might hurt him, and the Pelicans will have minimal incentive to play him in the final month if they fall out of the playoff picture (currently 3.5 games back). Time will tell.

I mentioned the modest restrictions to qualify for this list (10+ minutes, at least three games played since Jan. 1), but after culling to the top-200 we lost some more notable names. Remember that this is 8-cat value, per game, for the past three weeks. Guys who didn't make the cut include George Hill, Delon Wright, Avery Bradley, Danuel House, Coby White, Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker, Caris LeVert and Aron Baynes.

Most of those guys have been abandoned by fantasy owners already, and the guards on that list aren't faring well due to inefficiency and/or low playing time. Hill is averaging only 19.5 minutes per game, for instance, a number that wasn't much higher even while Eric Bledsoe was injured earlier this season. Coby White is 40.7% from the field and 61.9% from the line this month, and I've abandoned my fleeting optimism about his late-season appeal. Maybe in points leagues, if he's turned loose at some point, but that's about it.

The most glaring inclusion on that list of sub-200 players is Caris LeVert. I've been relatively down on him this season, and we're witnessing Exhibit A for my reasoning – in eight January games, he's scoring 12.8 points on awful percentages (36.5% FGs, 60.0% FTs) without many supporting stats at 1.4 threes, 3.1 boards, 2.9 assists, 0.6 steals and 0.1 blocks. There's no way to sugarcoat those numbers, and you probably can't even trade him right now. Given his perceived upside, I'd still try to hold him in the hopes that he gets hot and develops some trade value.

It's not all doom and gloom. There are plenty of big men I'm either stashing or watching very closely, despite low positions on this list, including Jaxson Hayes, Daniel Gafford, Nicolo Melli, Willie Cauley-Stein, Christian Wood and Brandon Clarke. I think Clarke and Wood need to be owned already in category-based leagues, and Hayes is borderline – it seems inevitable that the Pelicans will trade Derrick Favors, or shut him down, after which Hayes should have great upside. We didn't quite get there with Favors injured recently, but it's a long season. I've shown before that young players benefit as the season proceeds, while older guys tend to fall off. That’s a theme I might return to within the next few weeks, as I'm considering some metric that combines a player's age and their team's record. For now, suffice to say that young guys on bad teams should benefit disproportionately after the All-Star break (and particularly from mid-March through April).

Here's one final cut of data I found interesting. Using Yahoo position eligibility as a baseline, I tallied up how many eligible players there were for each position.

PG: 61

SG: 84

SF: 74

PF: 75

C: 57

This includes multiple-position eligibility, which is why there's more than 150 listed – it works out to an average of 1.76 per player. It's also yet another reason to remember to stock up on point guards and centers early in drafts, since there literally just isn't the same supply compared to other positions. That's all the time we have for this week's column, but perusing the lists above should yield plenty more insights regardless of your fantasy format(s). It might be easier to navigate the spreadsheet on Sheets or Excel. As ever, you can find me on Twitter @Knaus_RW if you have any questions or insights!

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