2019 NBA draft lottery primer: What you need to know
The NBA draft lottery on Tuesday sets the first round in stone for the actual draft on June 20. Here is a quick rundown of this year’s Ping-Pong drawing, which will decide the fates of 15 teams eyeing 14 lottery selections and one all-time prospect.
When is the 2019 NBA draft lottery?
The Chicago Hilton plays host to Tuesday’s draft lottery at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, shortly before Game 1 of the Western Conference finals between the Golden State Warriors and Portland Trail Blazers.
Aren’t the lottery odds different this year?
Why, yes, they are. Thank you for asking. This marks the first year of the league’s new lottery odds, which were established in an attempt to prevent tanking to the bottom of the standings, thus increasing the odds of landing the top overall pick.
This year, the teams with the three worst records all have a 14 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 40.2 percent shot at remaining in the top three. There is also a smoother decline in the odds for the remaining participants, who now own a slightly better shot of getting a top-four pick (rather than top three in years past).
Which team will land the No. 1 overall pick?
The New York Knicks (17-65), Cleveland Cavaliers (19-63) and Phoenix Suns (19-63) all have equal odds of getting the No. 1 pick and not falling out of the top three. Their 14 percent odds represent the best chance at the top pick by a slim margin over the Chicago Bulls (22-60). The odds for each successive team steadily drop.
Here are the odds of landing a top-four pick for every participating team:
How have past trades affected the draft lottery?
Three lottery picks hold protections as a result of recent trades.
• Memphis-Boston: The Grizzlies owe the Celtics their pick if it falls outside the top eight, due to a 2015 trade that sent Jeff Green from Boston to Memphis. There is a 57.2 percent chance the Grizzlies remain in the top eight. The pick is top-six protected in 2020 before becoming unprotected in 2021, so the Celtics, who could have as many as four first-round picks, are rooting for Memphis to stay put. Memphis, meanwhile, would not mind seeing the pick convey to Boston this year.
• Dallas-Atlanta: As a result of last year’s draft-day swap of the Nos. 3 and 5 picks that landed Luka Doncic in Dallas and Trae Young in Atlanta, the Mavericks owe the Hawks their No. 1 pick this year if it falls outside the top five. The Mavs keep the pick if their 26.2 percent odds of jumping into the top four convey. In that case, the pick remains top-five protected in 2020 and top-three protected in 2022 and 2023.
• Philadelphia-Boston: Sixers and Celtics fans watched the Kings with bated breath this season, and Sacramento’s surprising playoff chase left both teams with little chance at a top pick. The Kings’ pick has a 1 percent chance of conveying to Philadelphia, which gets the pick only if it lands at No. 1 overall. Boston receives the pick otherwise, and there is a 95.2 percent chance it stays at the 14th spot.
This pick is the result of two of the worst trades in recent memory. The Kings traded it in 2015, along with a pick swap in 2018, to the 76ers in a salary dump of Carl Landry, Jason Thompson and Nik Stauskas. (Sacramento then used its cap space to get Rajon Rondo, Marco Belinellie and Kosta Koufos.) Philadelphia swapped picks with Sacramento in 2018, moving up to No. 3 overall, and then traded both that pick and the 2019 Kings pick to Boston for the right to take Markelle Fultz.
Who is the biggest prize in the lottery?
The No. 1 overall pick is going to be Zion Williamson. He is a 6-foot-7, 284-pound athletic freak who rates as the most coveted lottery selection since at least Anthony Davis in 2012 and possibly even LeBron James in 2003. The Duke freshman is known for thunderous dunks, but he is capable of almost everything on the court.
NBA commissioner Adam Silver told The New York Times last week that a team might have tanked all 82 games for Williamson’s draft rights, if not for the lottery.
Most mock drafts feature Murray State sophomore playmaking point guard Ja Morant and Duke freshman scoring forward R.J. Barrett as the next two picks.
Vanderbilt freshman point guard Darius Garland and wings Cameron Reddish (Duke freshman), De’Andre Hunter (Virginia sophomore) and Jarrett Culver (Texas Tech sophomore) are all in the running to be taken by whichever team ends up at No. 4.
So, how does the draft lottery actually work?
In the lottery room at the Chicago Hilton, 14 Ping-Pong balls are placed into a bin. After a 20-second spin, the first of four balls is drawn, followed by the three remaining balls at 10-second spin intervals. The four balls can result in 1,001 possible number combinations, and each lottery team is assigned a group of four-number combos corresponding to their odds (i.e., the Knicks, Cavs and Suns all receive 140 four-number combos, while the Hornets, Heat and Kings each get 10.)
The first drawing determines the No. 1 pick, and the process is repeated three more times for picks two through four. The drawing determines only the top four picks. The 10 remaining teams fill out the lottery based on worse record. (The draft order of teams with the same record has already been decided by a series of coin flips.)
This whole process takes place inside a room prior to the televised broadcast. In the room are 12 media members, one representative from each team, a handful of NBA front-office personnel and a few accountants from Ernst & Young will all know the results of the lottery before the rest of us. Only none of them will have a way to communicate with the outside world, as all electronics are barred from the room.
The results are stuffed and sealed into an envelope by Ernst & Young representative Darrington Hobson, who delivers them to NBA deputy commissioner Mark Tatum, who is unaware of the contents. The results are then shared with another set of reps for each team live on the telecast, none of whom are aware of the draft order.
Who are the on-stage reps for each team?
Atlanta: Jami Gertz, team owner
Boston: Rich Gotham, team president
Charlotte: James Borrego, head coach
Chicago: Horace Grant, special adviser
Cleveland: Nick Gilbert, son of the team owner
Dallas: Cynthia Marchall, CEO
L.A. Lakers: Kyle Kuzma, player
Memphis: Elliot Perry, minority owner
Miami: Alonzo Mourning, vice president of player programs
Minnesota: Gersson Rosas, president of basketball operations
New Orleans: David Griffin, general manager
New York: Patrick Ewing, former player
Philadelphia, Chris Heck, team president
Phoenix: DeAndre Ayton, player
Washington: Raul Fernandez, vice chairman
Considering Williamson is a franchise-altering prospect and the fates of three protected picks hang in the balance — not to mention the possibility that whichever team lands the No. 1 pick will have improved a possible trade package for Anthony Davis, the last prospect of this magnitude — this is the most anticipated draft lottery in recent memory. Enjoy watching one of these 14 people’s jaw drop.
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Ben Rohrbach is a staff writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at rohrbach_ben@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @brohrbach
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