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2019 Fantasy Baseball SS Previews: It pays to be aggressive

Javy Baez delivered an MVP-worthy season last year. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Javy Baez delivered an MVP-worthy season last year. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Let’s talk about speed, because shortstop is one of the few positions where you can find it in abundance.

The average MLB team stole just 82 bases in 2018, continuing a multi-year decline. As recently as 2012, the average team total was over 100. Way back in 1992, when some of us began playing fantasy baseball, an average major league team swiped a whopping 126 bases.

But shortstops haven’t really stopped running. Of the 28 players who reached the 20-steal plateau last season, 11 of them were shortstops (or shortstop-eligible in fantasy).

[Positional Rankings: Top 300 | C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | P ]

There are very good tactical reasons for MLB clubs to not risk outs on the base-paths, of course — we’re not here to argue generally for more stolen base attempts. Fantasy owners simply need to recognize the fact that steals are becoming a scarce commodity. If you play in a deep, competitive league, you can’t bank on finding steals in-season via the free agent pool. Also, it’s best if you aren’t reliant on single-category specialists for your stolen bases. Ideally, your steals will be delivered by players who make useful contributions across multiple stats — guys like, say, Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner and/or Javier Baez.

And this brings us back to shortstop, a position that’s rich with 4- and 5-category contributors. Of those 11 shortstops who stole 20-plus bases last season, nine also reached double-digit homers. Six of those nine also scored 80 or more runs. Four different shortstops had 20/20 seasons. Lindor, Baez and Alex Bregman produced MVP-level performances.

In a typical Yahoo league, seven players with shortstop eligibility will be selected within the opening three rounds, and all of them deserve their ADPs. If you fill this position near the top of your draft, you’ll have addressed our game’s trickiest stat while locking down a traditionally challenging roster spot. At short, it pays to get aggressive early.

Which shortstop is a strong buy for the 2019 fantasy season?

Scott: Amed Rosario was a Top 10 prospect just two years back, and while part of that ranking was based on defensive ability, he’s been considered a disappointment with his bat. But is that fair? Rosario’s offense perked up in the second half of 2018, where his .268-43-5-28-18 line sparked fantasy contenders. Only five shortstop-eligible players beat Rosario’s production after the break, and he finished ahead of some big names (Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts) during that period.

The batting average could be neutral or a drain; I get it. But Rosario is here to run, he’s going to hit a few homers, and he costs next to nothing — his early Yahoo ADP is outside the Top 200. Rosario is still just 23. There’s plenty of room for growth here.

Andy: At a position as talent-rich as shortstop, it’s probably a stretch to suggest that Tampa Bay’s Willy Adames is a player to target in standard Yahoo mixed leagues. But if you play in a custom format with multiple UTILs and perhaps a MI slot to fill, Adames is clearly of interest. He’s just 23 years old and coming off an impressive half-season for the Rays, having slashed .278/.348/.406 with 10 bombs over 323 plate appearances. Adames reached double-digit homers and steals more than once in the minors, batting .270/.363/.410 for his career. Everything he did for Tampa Bay last season is repeatable in 2019. Consider him, deep leaguers.

Dalton: Now’s a good time to buy Corey Seager, coming off a lost season in which injuries first sapped his production before ending his year in early April. He should enter 2019 fully recovered from Tommy John and hip surgeries, and a healthy Seager is one of baseball’s best shortstops.

He’s 24 years old, owns a career 133 wRC+ (Manny Machado’s is 120, for reference) and is slated to bat second in between righties A.J. Pollock and Justin Turner. Seager is curiously going 25+ picks after a similar player in Carlos Correa in most drafts, so he’s someone to target at that price.

Conversely, who do you think will be a fantasy bust at the position?

Scott: Francisco Lindor is one of my favorite players in all of baseball. I imagined I would come into several shares of him for 2019, be it drafting him, buying him at auction, or trading for him. But his strained calf injury makes him unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, and when ranges are floated with long-term injuries, I tend to trust the higher side of the range.

It’s generally a mistake to be the most injury-optimistic guy in the room. And who’s to say Lindor is at full throttle, especially on the bases, when he returns? I would never take him in Round 1, and I’m leery of him in Round 2. Not a fun call, but a prudent one.

Andy: Tim Anderson is such a complicated player. He was one of the four shortstops who produced 20/20 seasons in 2018, yet he was also the only one among those four who wasn’t actually a productive batter. He reached base at a miserable .281 clip last year, a slight improvement over the previous season’s .276. Anderson rarely walks and he can’t touch right-handed pitching (240/.272/.390 career; .224/.269/.380 last year). It’s plenty impressive that he’s managed to produce a pair of useful fantasy seasons despite his devastating flaws. But if you draft him, you’ll want to sit him more often than not. This year, I’m fully out.

Dalton: Steals are hard to come by, and it’s easy to get excited about a young player who just went 14/32 in only 275 at bats, but Adalberto Mondesi is a real batting average risk with his lack of plate discipline (77:11 K:BB ratio last year). His power/speed combo is certainly enticing, but Mondesi has a short track record, is a legit threat to hit in the .230s, and his counting stats will suffer from hitting in one of the worst lineups in baseball. You can get similar production from Jonathan Villar at a cheaper cost.

[Batter up: Join or create a 2019 Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for free today]

Let’s look ahead. Which SS prospect do you think will impact 2019?

Andy: Fernando Tatis Jr. is not only the top prospect at short, he’s also one of the 2-3 very best in the game, regardless of position. In his best seasons, Tatis has a clear chance to be a 30/30 players. He was feasting at Double-A last year (at age 19) before a thumb injury ended his campaign. Tatis rebounded by crushing in winter ball. It’s possible that his arrival in the big leagues will be delayed for service time/business-of-baseball reasons, but there’s little doubt he’s an elite prospect. Here’s a sneak preview…

Dalton: Brendan Rodgers doesn’t have an initial clear path to playing time in Colorado (although DJ LeMahieu’s departure helps), but he’s the team’s best prospect. He’ll be an attractive fantasy add as soon as he’s given an opportunity, especially with Coors Field on his side. Steamer600 projects .280-70-19-76-9 for Rodgers, who was the No. 3 pick in the 2015 draft and possesses more upside than fellow rookie teammate Garrett Hampson.

Scott: Tatis and Rodgers are the first two names to know, so just understand I’m nodding along with my colleagues as they pitch them. I’m curious to see how the Blue Jays handle Bo Bichette, the second jewel of their legacy minor-league class (we see you, Vlad). Bichette had a bang-up 131 games for Double-A New Hampshire last year (.286 average, 95 runs, 11 homers, 32 steals), and is ranked between 8-13 on the four major prospect boards. Maybe Toronto will make Bichette wait a full year, like Kid Guerrero had to, but I’ll keep my ears raised for a possible mid-season callup.

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