10 Regression Candidates and Backfield Changes

Hayden Winks
Rotoworld

Potential Backfield Changes

SEAHAWKS - Chris Carson will resume near full-time duties with Rashaad Penny leaving Week 14 with a knee injury. It’s likely a season-ending ACL injury. Carson is a mid-range RB1 in most matchups with C.J. Prosise checking in occasionally.

RAIDERS - DeAndre Washington out-touched Jalen Richard, 20-9, with Josh Jacobs (shoulder) sidelined. An MRI will determine if Jacobs will miss more time, but Washington is a nice addition in most leagues while we wait for more details to emerge. Washington would see 10+ carries with goal-line and pass-catching work if Jacobs’ fractured shoulder is as bad as it sounds.

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TITANS - Derrick Henry is the unquestioned workhorse when healthy, but a hamstring injury flared up in Week 14 and puts next week’s status up in the air. Dion Lewis would be the primary runner if Henry can’t get in full practices this week. Lewis will likely be featured in John Daigle’s waiver column.

BILLS - Devin Singletary out-carried Frank Gore, 17-4, and tied for the team lead in targets with eight. Singletary has earned near full-time work but his goal-line role is still up in the air. Gore and Josh Allen have been taking those reps for most of the season. 

REDSKINS - Derrius Guice left with a knee injury that may end his season. Adrian Peterson ended up with 20 carries while Chris Thompson led Washington with eight targets. This backfield is now easy to project. AP will see 14-20 carries and all the goal-line work down the stretch as an RB3. 

49ERS - Raheem Mostert led the way in this three-back committee, totaling a nice 69 yards with a score on a team-high 10 carries. Matt Breida (6 carries) and Tevin Coleman (3 carries) were complementary options behind Mostert, who was also on the receiving end of a trick-play touchdown. Mostert is a flex play moving forward.

JETS - With Le’Veon Bell (illness) out, Bilal Powell led the way in a two-back committee with Ty Montgomery chipping in. Powell ended with 19 carries and three targets, enough volume to be in the RB2/3 conversation if Bell misses another game. 

PATRIOTS - With New England trailing 20-7 at half time, Belichick gave more opportunities to James White (5 carries, 7 targets) and Rex Burkhead (7 carries) at the expense of Sony Michel, who finished with just eight scoreless yards. I won’t be surprised if Michel is benched for Burkhead down the stretch. White is the only back to have any faith in right now and even he is just a flex play in PPR leagues.

BUCS - Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber posted nearly identical rushing lines on 11 carries each, although RoJo saw five targets to Barber’s two. Jones is a desperate flex play moving forward but is best left on the bench.

DOLPHINS - Our Laird and Savior Patrick Laird was the clear-cut No. 1 back in Miami. He had 15 carries and five targets, while Myles Gaskin was left with six total opportunities. It’s an ugly situation, but Laird is on the flex radar in PPR leagues.

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10 Regression Candidates

A pass-catcher’s usage (targets and/or air yards) this week is a decent predictor of next week’s fantasy performance. The following pass-catchers were either used more than what their box score indicates, making them positive regression candidates:

1. John Brown - 8 targets and 96 air yards - only 3 receptions, 26 yards, 0 touchdowns

2. Julio Jones - 8 targets and 113 air yards - only 5 receptions, 66 yards, 0 touchdowns 

3. Stefon Diggs - 9 targets and 138 air yards - only 6 receptions, 92 yards, 0 touchdowns

4. Jamison Crowder - 7 targets and 57 air yards - only 3 receptions, 30 yards, 0 touchdowns

5. Sammy Watkins - 8 targets and 67 air yards - only 4 receptions, 50 yards, 0 touchdowns

6. Marvin Jones - 7 targets and 62 air yards - only 3 receptions, 62 yards, 0 touchdowns

7. Odell Beckham - 5 targets and 86 air yards - only 2 receptions, 39 yards, 0 touchdowns

8. Curtis Samuel - 4 targets and 117 air yards - only 2 receptions, 25 yards, 0 touchdowns

9. Parris Campbell - 5 targets and 56 air yards - only 3 receptions, 12 yards, 0 touchdowns

10. Larry Fitzgerald - 7 targets and 50 air yards - only 3 receptions, 20 yards, 0 touchdowns

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