10 good things I’m thinking about the Cowboys 2022 season
Earlier in the week, Cowboys Wire set the stage for things about the 2022 version of the Dallas Cowboys which were cause for concern. In “10 bad things I’m thinking,” concerns ranged from the offensive line composition and coaching, wide receiver and tight end youth and inexperience to the general dark cloud that’s hung over the organization since January.
But now it’s time to focus on the positive. With Dallas squaring off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football (here’s how to watch, stream and the keys to the game) to begin the slate of 17 regular season games, things will get hot and heavy very quickly. Here are some trends to look for over the marathon of the season.
The defense absolutely can lead the league in turnovers again
(Photo by Matt Strasen/AP Images for Panini)
We’ve read countless anecdotes about how teams with surreal turnover numbers fail to reach the bar the following season. The great Bob Sturm from The Athletic laid it out crystal clear in this week’s must-read Dan Quinn Report.
Basically, every single team had fewer takeaways the next season and most of them had distinct drop-offs. Just look at this list. On average, the drop-off is 13.7 takeaways from the big year to the next. The NFL average takeaways last year was 22.8 and if Dallas drops by 13.7, it will fall below the league average.
That would be a huge drop-off.
Here’s why I believe the Cowboys could lead the league again. Their pass rush should be better. Despite the hand wringing over losing Randy Gregory to a free-agency fiasco; if Tank Lawrence is healthy for a full season then that’s a net gain. Micah Parsons is now in Year 2.
In addition, the corners are both playing for big-money contracts. Anthony Brown is in the final year of his deal and Trevon Diggs will be eligible for an extension for the first time and is ready to break the bank. Going out on a limb, but this group will be the one-off.
KaVontae Turpin is going to be what Stephen Jones wanted Tavon Austin to be
(AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
In 2018, the Cowboys front office did Prescott and the entire offense a disservice. In mid-April the club jettisoned lead receiver Dez Bryant and two weeks later Jason Witten had had enough and retired on them, albeit (unfortunately?) only for a year. Their big offseason signings for targets were Allen Hurns and Tavon Austin, the latter who was touted as a shining acquisition who would see up to two dozen touches a game.
24 per game.
He had 24 touches for the entire season.
This will not be that. There’s been no anointing of Turpin, the USFL MVP who scored two return touchdowns in a single preseason game in August, but maybe there should be. He’ll be the primary kick return guy, primary punt return guy and he also will get gadget plays. But perhaps Turpin will be a full replacement for Cedrick Wilson in that he was also be a viable receiving option for Prescott. He looked capable in the USFL, now he’ll just have to prove it on the biggest stage. He shouldn’t be doubted.
Will McClay's worth will once again be proven
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Sports in general is a what have you done for me lately league, but especially in the NFL where contracts aren’t guaranteed and players come and go and disappear from memory quickly.
Y'all — you know what we haven't really talked about?
Jaylon Smith is out the league right now.
I was against drafting him, and the 2nd contract and etc etc… but that's still WILD.
— KD Drummond (@KDDrummondNFL) September 9, 2022
McClay’s ability to consistently identify talent at the collegiate level is paramount to the Cowboys success because they don’t go hard in the other two phases of talent acquisition: free agency and trading.
Dallas has the most homegrown players of any organization, and by a wide margin. Dallas has one of the youngest rosters in the NFL in 2022. There will be another core of youth who steps up to the plate over the course of the season, including one or two that emerge to be actual stars.
The candidate list is long. Among second-year guys, Quinton Bohanna and Osa Odighizuwa are starting at defensive tackle and Israel Mukuamu and Simi Fehoko could have a surprising workload, even if not right out the gate.
Among rookies we’ve already talked about KaVontae Turpin, but Jake Ferguson and Daron Bland have sizable roles carved out already, not to mention a litany of other guys waiting for opportunities like safety Markquese Bell.
Ezekiel Elliott and the run game can have a great year
(AP Photo/Ron Jenkins)
No one needs to rehash all of the things that have been said about Elliott over the last several seasons, so this will be short and sweet. He’ll have to prove it to remain in Dallas as they can escape his contract following 2022. Can he? He looked like it to start last season, running for 5.3 yards per carry and scoring five rushing touchdowns in his first five games.
Then the knee injury hit and although he toughed it out, his performance down the stretch was tough to watch. Can he avoid the injury bug with over 1,600 career carries under his belt?
Dallas will return to the 2016/2017 run-heavy approach. It won’t totally revert, but the club plans to lean on the ground game while they see if the wideout corps can emerge.
That will include Tony Pollard, of course, who is one of the most elusive runners the league has had over the last couple of seasons. It also includes Rico Dowdle, who I’m predicting makes this a backfield similar to what the Browns have had in Cleveland with Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson.
Dallas finished ninth in rush yardage in 2021; expect them in the top 5 in 2022 with at least 2,400 ground yards.
Dak Prescott is going to be a force in the run game
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
That rushing total will include a boost from a more mobile Dak Prescott. Prescott is now almost two years removed from his ankle injury. Last year, we saw a calf injury in Week 6 impact his scramble ability and mobility in the pocket, but he should be back to his old self now.
Remember, he had six rushing touchdowns in each of this first three seasons and averaged just under 20 yards a game until that horrific injury. In 2021 he averaged just nine yards a game.
Mentally it had to be hard to run after that being how he was injured, but this year he will likely return to the abandon he showed over the first part of his career.
Micah Parsons will win Defensive Player of the Year
Brett Maher could be really good
(Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
During training camp, when Dallas was hosting a woeful competition between UDFA rookie Jonathan Garibay and veteran journeyman Lirim Hajrullahu, I penned an article with several free agent candidates. One of the reasons I based those candidates on is the bounce-back philosophy that seems to happen to kickers.
Oftentimes, kickers emerge after getting their feet wet. Things may not work out for them immediately, or they may suffer a down year and then bounce back. Of course there are kickers who never had it or lost it and never recovered, but some of the best seasons from kickers come after they had a bad season. Whether it be kicking injured, a loss of confidence or a bad environment, looking for guys in need of second chances just makes a ton of sense considering how performances fluctuate at this position.
Maher firmly fits as a candidate for this to happen to him.
The big-legged kicker was below average his first year (80.6%) then woeful his second (66.7%). But he resurfaced after a year out the league in New Orleans and hit 88.9% of his kicks over half a season.
Also, that big leg means that Dallas isn’t going to have to worry about what all of their opponents will, kickoff returns.
Malik Hooker is going to play like a first-round pick
(AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
The Cowboys took a flyer on three safeties in 2021 free agency and two of them returned in 2022 with two-year deals. Jayron Kearse was the least heralded, but finally found a home as a full-time player in Quinn’s defense and excelled as a downhill player in the coordinator’s three-safety look.
But in 2022, it will be Hooker who takes the spotlight. The former first-round pick of the Indianapolis Colts is primed to play like the prospect he was coming out of Ohio State before all of the injuries piled up. It’s been a long time since the Cowboys had a centerfield safety with this level of talent and the idea that the club can match their turnover total from last year has a lot to do with his return to that level of play.
Another year removed from his achilles injury and Hooker is going to help the corners immensely with his ability to know what to do and make it to spots. Think of that confusion on several big plays last year between Diggs and Damontae Kazee; that’s a thing of the past if Hooker is out there.
CeeDee Lamb is going to be force-fed, and he's going to eat well
(AP Photo/Ron Jenkins)
Lamb was already the Cowboys No. 1 receiver, but the Kellen Moore offense has always been about Prescott finding the open receiver. This year, there will be a focus on getting the best player the ball as much as possible. His 120 targets in 2021 should balloon to the atmosphere of where Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp reside. 9-to-12 looks per game will have Lamb approaching 1,500 yards on the season.
Division Title Defense
(AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
The Eagles are improved. The Giants will improve solely by having a competent coach, but the roster is still in need of help. Washington’s QB play will be improved, but not by much and their org is a dumpster fire.
Things will be tougher in the division, which still might be the worst in football, but it should still send two teams into the playoffs.
The Cowboys should have a better defense than the Eagles and they certainly have the better quarterback. They also have the better running backs though the run game in total is probably a wash.
While Philly has the best offensive line and better receiving options, Dallas should eek out the division win by a game, becoming the first back-to-back NFC East champions since 2003-2004.
For our game-by-game predictions, go here.
