Juggernaut Index, No. 7: The New England Patriots
The Juggernaut Index is our annual ranking and review of NFL teams for fantasy purposes — repeat: FANTASY PURPOSES. Here we concern ourselves with a franchise’s likely contributions to the fantasy player pool. We are not concerned with projected wins and losses. Instead, we’re focused on yards and points. As always, we’re beginning with the league’s least useful teams, working our way toward the elite fantasy juggernauts.
[Sign up to play for free | Mock Draft now | Rankings | Draft Kit | Latest news]
The New England Patriots enter the season with their Hall of Fame quarterback suspended for four games and their featured runner sidelined for at least half the year due to injury. So yeah, this rank may seem a bit aggressive. But we’ve learned over the years that Bill Belichick and his coaching minions have a peculiar ability to transform scrap-heap players into fantasy monsters. Also, we’re dealing with a team that ranked third in the league in scoring in 2015 (29.1 PPG) and fifth in passing (286.7 YPG). The Pats have fielded a top-10 scoring offense every year for the past 12 seasons. There’s little question that in 2016, when all the numbers are in, New England will look like a fantasy juggernaut.
For the first time in recent memory, Tom Brady is an absolute draft day steal. Yes, you will need to wait out his suspension (or his re-suspension, or his belated suspension, or whatever it is). But when he returns against the Browns in October, you’ll have an all-time inner-circle fantasy legend atop your active roster. Brady led the NFL in touchdown passes last season (36) while throwing for 4770 yards. This year, you can easily pair him with a mid-draft QB who opens with a friendly September schedule — Matthew Stafford, maybe, or Kirk Cousins — and you’ll get elite production from the position at a low cost. Brady’s current Yahoo ADP is 75.8 — a gift, really. He’ll be worth the wait.
One thing I have not done in leagues in which I’ve landed Brady is to also snag Jimmy Garoppolo, his understudy. Garoppolo has been perfectly fine, if not spectacular, during the preseason (36-for-54, 406 yards, TD), but the Pats open with a rough matchup at Arizona, so Jimmy is off the board in Week 1. I’m fairly confident that Belichick and OC Josh McDaniels will set up Garoppolo for success, though I don’t think we’ll see the full expression of this team’s offensive firepower. I’d expect plenty of short, safe throws — not quite game-manager-ish, but certainly not hyper-aggressive. Really, that opening week matchup scares me off. If you’re looking for a September fantasy placeholder for Brady, you can surely do better.
New England’s receiving corps offers two well-established upper-tier fantasy assets in Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, plus a few fun lottery tickets. Gronk has dealt with some offseason tweaks and dings, but nothing that threatens his opening week availability or his long-term outlook. He remains a top-of-draft tight end, coming off back-to-back 1100-yard seasons. He’s reached double-digit touchdowns five times in his six-year career, which is of course silly. I have no objection to drafting him near the turn picks in the first round of fantasy drafts. Like Gronk, Edelman has a complicated injury history and he’s missed a few practices along the way, but he seems to be healthy at the moment. (With the Pats, we never truly know. This team treats injury info like launch codes.) Over the past three seasons, Edelman has averaged 6.6 receptions per game, making him a hero to the PPR community. He retains his WR2 status in our game.
Beyond Edelman, this team’s passing game will likely have a spin-the-wheel vibe for much of the season, with a different player feasting each week. Martellus Bennett has joined the party, and the Pats are expected to employ two tight ends on an overwhelming majority of snaps this year. Belichick seems pleased with the new addition to the offense:
“He’s a big player, he’s talented, blocks well, runs well, he has got skills in the passing game and the running game,” Belichick said. “I’d say there’s really not a whole lot that it looks like he can’t do. It looks like he can do pretty much everything you want a tight end to do. He’s smart, very smart. He handles the formations and adjustments and things like that, which are a big part of our offense at that position. He handles those well, and it’s been pretty easy.”
Quite a statement of almost human-like appreciation from Coach Belichick. There’s something you don’t see every day.
I continue to view Bennett as a viable fantasy starter, and he falls well outside the top-100 picks in Yahoo drafts (117.8). We’ve obviously seen Brady support multiple starting-quality fantasy TEs in prior seasons, so it’s not too difficult to imagine Bennett delivering a 60-650-9 campaign. I’m in. Georgia rookie Malcolm Mitchell may eventually start for this team at receiver, though he’s working his way back from an icky elbow injury. Mitchell has good speed and over-the-middle ability, and it’s clear that he’s picked up New England’s offense quickly — no simple feat for a young receiver on this team. For now, however, he’s more of a dynasty flier. He’s nowhere near the top of the Pats’ receiving hierarchy.
I could say the same about Chris Hogan, except that he’s been peppered with targets in preseason action. Look at this gorgeous Brady-to-Hogan strike. During exhibition play, Hogan hauled in nine balls for 115 yards and one score, and he was a buzzy player throughout the offseason. This could be one of those cases, as with Wes Welker back in the day, where the Pats simply steal an underutilized talent from a division rival. We’ll see. Hogan is basically free in fantasy drafts, so the profit potential here is great.
Dion Lewis had carved out an enormous role in New England’s backfield, something larger than the Kevin Faulk/Shane Vereen gig, but he’s still dealing with knee issues following last season’s ACL tear. Lewis has been placed on the reserve/PUP list, which makes him undraftable in fantasy leagues of standard size and shape. It’s just not realistic to think that you can stash a player for at least half the season, and perhaps longer. We have no idea when Lewis will return, but we know he’s not even eligible until Week 7. One of the biggest mistakes that fantasy owners frequently make is to assume the best about every injury. We all hope he returns at full strength, obviously, but it’s impractical to wait.
In Lewis’ absence, James White gets a value bump as the presumptive primary receiving back for the Pats. He wont step into Lewis’ full workload, but he’ll see plenty of short-range targets in a high-yield offense. White showed us a lot last season (40 REC for 410 yards), so he’s a PPR player of interest. We think LeGarrette Blount will be this team’s featured early-down runner, but we never really know with New England until the offense takes the field. Blount still has his full bag of tricks, including the leap-over-an-oncoming-tackler maneuver, his signature play. He isn’t the most electric runner, necessarily, but he’s a reliable back who gets what’s blocked, plus a yard or two. He’s no great PPR asset, but Blount has a path to 800-plus yards and a useful touchdown total. He’s a very nice late-draft option for the ZeroRB crowd.
We should note that former sixth rounder Tyler Gaffney has been making a strong push throughout camp and preseason, earning time with the varsity during exhibition play. He’s a deep-dive special right now; Pats reporters have projected him as everything from a starter to a final cut. He’s flashed a bit in recent weeks, so keep his name on your cheat sheet for now. We’re dealing with the team that turned Sammy Morris, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Jonas Gray into legit fantasy commodities. Anything is possible.
New England’s D remains a fantasy asset, per the usual. A turnover-friendly division schedule helps, as does the fact that this team so commonly plays with a lead. And so does Jamie Collins. New England’s D/ST will be playable in fantasy more often than not.
—
2015 Offensive Stats & Ranks
Points per game – 29.1 (3)
Pass YPG – 286.7 (5)
Rush YPG – 87.8 (30)
Yards per play – 5.6 (8)
Plays per game – 65.7 (12)
—
Previous Juggernaut Index entries: 32) C leveland, 31) San Francisco, 30) Philadelphia, 29) Baltimore, 28) Tennessee, 27) Los Angeles, 26) Miami, 25) Detroit, 24) Chicago, 23) San Diego, 22) Minnesota, 21) Tampa Bay, 20) Atlanta, 19) Washi ngton, 18) Buffalo, 17) Kansas City, 16) Oakland, 15) NY Giants, 14) Indianapolis, 13) Jacksonville, 12) Houston, 11) Denver< /a>, 10) NY Jets, 9) Dallas, 8) Cincinnati, 7) New England
