The 10 Sports Franchises Most Likely To Move
What do the Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills, Florida Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Islanders and New Orleans Hornets all have in common?
Dreary stadiums they don't own and stalling businesses eager to rake in more cash. In other words, they're all ripe for a move. And that means city or state governments around the country can expect them to come calling for help financing a new venue.
Based on franchise valuations, revenue and attendance trends over the past few years, the most stagnant team businesses – those with the greatest likelihoods of hitting the road at some point – are those stuck in outdated arenas and stadiums. While market size drives local sponsorship deals and TV money, souped-up venues that drive revenue through high ticket prices, luxury suites and corporate packages are the order of the day. You don't have that, you're not in the game.
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"The single biggest factor is ticket revenue, and a new venue is going to drive high-end ticket sales," says Bernie Mullin, who runs the Atlanta-based Aspire Group, an industry consultant.
Not that many clubs are likely to pull up the stakes anytime soon. The tough economic environment should, at least in the short term, curtail the ability of sports franchises to play one market against another in search of a sweet stadium deal. The consumer appetite for muni bonds and taxpayer subsidies in support of sports venues may take awhile to bounce back.
"Owners may not be able to shop their franchises around as much for awhile," says Shawn McBride, a vice president with Ketchum Sports Marketing.
But ultimately, these things have a way of coming back around. Desirable landing places for struggling teams, Mullin believes, include Las Vegas and Orange County, Calif., (which has the goods for a state-of-the-art facility and enough people for a strong fan base despite the plethora of teams up the road in Los Angeles). He also thinks Kansas City, Mo., despite its modest size, is ripe for an NHL or NBA club.
Other cities that experts expect to see in the market for new teams are Orlando, Fla., (already a secondary market for baseball's Rays) and Austin, Texas.
For the NFL in particular, market size doesn't much matter. How else to explain a thriving franchise in Green Bay, Wis., while Los Angeles sits empty? Almost any city can fill a 60,000-seat football stadium for eight home games a year, while league-controlled TV millions are doled out to all 32 teams equally. Yet the league has witnessed five franchise shifts since 1984.
For football owners in particular, the stadium deal is the big differentiator, and it's the only thing a local owner can really control. Lure a city into subsidizing a stadium complete with luxury box riches and the lion's share of revenues, and you've got yourself a more profitable place to play. That's what spurred the profitable Los Angeles Rams to bolt for St. Louis in 1995 and the Cleveland Browns to Baltimore a year later.
Major League Baseball, a world of local TV deals and 81 annual games that make market size much more important, has had just one franchise move since 1970 – that being the excursion of the struggling Montreal Expos to Washington, D.C., three years ago.
If any club is going to break that spell, expect it to come from Florida, a seemingly natural baseball market that hasn't lived up to expectations. Both the Florida Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays have been at or near the bottom of the league in attendance for a decade, thanks in part to the dreary stadiums they call home. Sports marketing experts call the Marlins' Dolphin Stadium and the Rays' Tropicana Field "major impediments" to success. Even a Rays World Series title this year, which is entirely possible, is unlikely to keep the franchise from bolting if voters don't approve the team's public-private offer for a new waterfront home in St. Petersburg.
Other struggling small-market franchises like the Kansas City Royals, who have extensively renovated Kauffman Stadium, and the Pittsburgh Pirates, who got their dream playground, PNC Park, in 2001, don't seem to be headed anywhere.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles sits open as the big vacuum for the NFL, a good thing for owners of the league's struggling franchises. The economy may slow the flow of window shopping across state lines for awhile, but a potential jewel like L.A. always stands out.
"That's the carrot that owners hold over their cities' heads," says McBride.
The top five:
1. Florida Marlins (MLB): Slideshow
2. Tampa Bay Rays (MLB): Slideshow
3. Buffalo Bills (NFL): Slideshow
4. Minnesota Vikings (NFL): Slideshow
5. San Francisco 49ers (NFL): Slideshow
• See more potential movers
