Roy S. Johnson Blog

Mon Jun 01, 2009 4:32 pm EDT

Five is not enough

Sunday was a good day for starting pitchers. Ten of them ended the day with a W. In 15 games, that's an impressive ratio.

However, none of them put in a full, impressive day's work.

The closest was Detroit right-hander Edwin Jackson, who threw eight shutout innings against Baltimore before yielding the mound to Fernando Rodney, the Tigers's bearded and imposing closer.

That's not unusual. The complete game an endangered species. Pitchers like Zack Greinke, the Kansas phenom (above) who's pitched five complete games in 2009 is an anomaly. The next best is a six-way tie with two complete games.

But even guys like Jackson, workhorses who often take their teams deep into a game, are fading thanks to conservative pitch counts and complex bullpen strategies. He's averaged 6.6 innings in his last 10 starts, five of them wins. Four pitchers - Greinke, Roy Halladay, Kevin Millwood and CC Sabathia - are averaging at least 7.0 innings per start this season.

Most top-end starters are averaging at least six innings per outing, a good two-thirds days' work. And that's the minimum a starter should have to perform before being able to earn a W.

Unfortunately, baseball barely requires a half-day's labor - five innings - from starters for a W. That's just not enough.

On Sunday Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo lasted into the sixth but managed just one out before being lifted, having allowed two runs. Yet because the Brewers scored five in the first three innings he was credited with the W. It was the fourth time in 10 starts that Gallardo failed to pitch six innings, and he earned victories in two of those outings.

Sorry. Not enough.

If I could take some white-out to the rule book, I'd require starters to go seven before getting the W. That's man-ball. In 1978, baseball's 10 winningest pitchers (plus any 20-game winners - remember them?) averaged 7.4 innings per outing. (As a side note: Mike Caldwell pitched 23 complete games that season.)

A decade later, the number was only negligibly less - 7.3 innings per outing.

By 1998, with the development of bullpen specialists, the starter's day had shortened to 6.7 innings among those same 10 winningst pitchers. And the number didn't change during the 2008 season.

My seven-inning rule would undoubtedly rile some human-rights activists, claiming it's physically and mentally cruel and unusual, or somesuch. Wimps. I'd settle for six innings at this juncture, reluctantly.

The five-inning rule coincides with the rule that if a game is called after five innings, it goes in the books as a completed game. Frankly, that rule should be changed, too. Five innings is like a date that ends at the appetizer. Or a book you stop reading halfway through.

It was fun but hardly fulfilling.

Changing the rule would not throw the stat book into a tizzy. As noted above, Gallardo would have been the only "winner" stripped of a W because he did not complete six innings.

It also would not have a dramatically adverse effect on any individual pitcher's pursuit of history. Very few are winning 20 games any more, and after Randy Johnson reaches the 300 milestone (it could happen Wednesday), our grandkids might be in the majors before another 300-gamer comes along - even if they shortened the requirement to three innings.

Raise the bar now and let's see pitchers earn their Ws.

AP photo

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67 Comments

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  1. Eric Z
    1. Posted by Eric Z Mon Jun 01, 2009 7:06 pm EDT

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    pointless
  2. all eyes on me
    2. Posted by all eyes on me Mon Jun 01, 2009 7:06 pm EDT

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    Yovani Gallardo is my pitcher. I'll take the W.
  3. Dirty D
    3. Posted by Dirty D Mon Jun 01, 2009 7:11 pm EDT

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    I concur!!
  4. Trenton A
    4. Posted by Trenton A Mon Jun 01, 2009 7:23 pm EDT

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    Nolan Ryan agrees.
  5. billieboy
    5. Posted by billieboy Mon Jun 01, 2009 7:27 pm EDT

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    I really think the " Complete Game " category is disappearing into thin air !
    It is sad ! Plus the " SAVES " category , I think, is way too ' OVERVALUED ' !
    Also the " HOLD ' category is becoming a new ' fad '. What is an " Hold " ! ?
    Duh ! I really do not understand that ! That way I see : A Pitcher MUST earn
    a WIN after SEVEN innings. Then a reliever comes into the 8 th inning; and then,
    a closer comes into the 9 th inning. IF there is a tie after NINE innings, then all bets
    are off whereas a manager has the free will to choose any pitcher to finish off the game.
    That is the best way I think ! That way is very baseball professionalism ! - and
    common sense to boot ! Of course the game dynamics always change whatever is
    happening, and the manager sometimes have to ' yank ' the initial pitcher out before
    the seven innings. That is why most pitchers have difficulty winning games because of the
    well - developed batters OR that the first starter might have not been prepared to start the
    game. If I were a manager, I would ASK the starter ; " ARE YOU READY OR NOT ! ? "
    Then I will decide to keep or find another pitcher fast ! I have seen too many pitchers give up
    at least FIVE runs in the first inning ! That is the problem of ' preparedness ' !
  6. Rich T
    6. Posted by Rich T Mon Jun 01, 2009 7:44 pm EDT

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    I'm very old-school, and think pitchers are babied too much. Yet, unless you want to become the next Grady Little, you have to have a quick hook.
  7. a-mak15
    7. Posted by a-mak15 Mon Jun 01, 2009 8:10 pm EDT

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    Mediocre pitchers - I'm talking about the majority of four and fives - throw a plethora of balls which up their pitch count at a faster rate. They often can't last into the seventh because of this. Therefore, you'll have more middle relievers picking up wins, and is it really different if a guy goes *one inning* and picks up the victory as opposed to those who goes five? The latter seems more deserving.
  8. fatzoggy
    8. Posted by fatzoggy Mon Jun 01, 2009 8:11 pm EDT

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    So you would rather raise it to 6 or 7 and see more RELIEVERS get the win for pitching 2/3 of an inning in the middle of a game? That's all you're going to get. We'll soon have middle relievers getting 15-20 wins instead of starting pitchers. 5.0 innings is more than half a game, and plenty of room to earn a win. Raising it to 6 or 7 doesn't make much sense to me.
  9. Rendezvous
    9. Posted by Rendezvous Mon Jun 01, 2009 8:19 pm EDT

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    So, Roy, if the starting pitcher does not go 7 (or even 6) innings, but his team wins, who is awarded the W? The relief specialist who pitched 1/3 of an inning? He deserves it more than the pitcher who earned 15 outs? I, too, deplore the over-specialization of the pitching staff into starting pitchers, 6th-inning pitchers, two-outs-and-a-man-on-in-scoring-position-with-a-left-handed-squeeze-bunter-at-bat pitchers, and so on, but your idea does not make much sense as you have not proposed a reasonable replacement for the status quo. Maybe make a statistical category of team-pitching wins? Oh, wait. We call that category Wins, and keep the team standings based on that trivial category.
  10. desitom
    10. Posted by desitom Mon Jun 01, 2009 8:46 pm EDT

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    What happens if a pitcher goes 5 innings with a lead and the game gets called because of rain? No W for any pitcher? 5 innings is enough for a team to get a W, so it should be enough for the starter to get a W.
  11. Greg E
    11. Posted by Greg E Mon Jun 01, 2009 8:57 pm EDT

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    There is not a more annoying person than a "purist". Hockey purists nearly drove the sport into the ground. Baseball purists decry the number of homeruns and interleague play which has generated much revenue for the MLB. Football is much more an offensive and passing game nowadays than even 15 years ago. And finally sports like soccer will never take off in the states because of purists. It's called change guys- learn to live with it and stop complaining about "in the old days" pitchers were sooooo much tougher and hitters so much more pure. There is a reason sports have become very popular- changing away from some of the stupid purist rules. Guys throw alot harder today and face much better hitters than back in the "old days". Plus do you really want to overwork a guy now and lose him in the future. Look at Dontrelle Willis. Back when they won the series he was phenom and the manager (McKeon I believe) worked inning after inning, pitch after pitch outta the guy. Now is a shell of that phenom and isn't even 30 yet! So shut up!
  12. tofudogsburg...
    12. Posted by tofudogsburg... Mon Jun 01, 2009 8:58 pm EDT

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    that's kind of boring though isn't?
  13. rich
    13. Posted by rich Mon Jun 01, 2009 8:59 pm EDT

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    who cares
  14. lindy loo...
    14. Posted by lindy loo... Mon Jun 01, 2009 9:30 pm EDT

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    For the past two years or so Roy Halliday had been the King of complete games - nobody had more than him - always a workhorse --
  15. Tyree C
    15. Posted by Tyree C Mon Jun 01, 2009 9:53 pm EDT

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    The day of the pitcher taking the mound to stay for 9 is sadly probably gone, and will be until all of baseball, at all levels, realizes that the damage to arms begins in the year after t-ball, when win-crazy coaches teach 7 year old pitchers how to throw every type of breaking ball there is, instead of having them throw fastballs only, and trying to throw strikes. The young arm, under duress from throwing breaking pitches, does not grow stronger the way it would if only fastballs were thrown. A pitcher shouldn't even attempt a curve or slider until the age of 16 or so.
    Baseball's MLB front office has a vested interest in pitchers going every fifth day and not pitching complete games, because the effect is to bring pitchers into the majors who have absolutely no business up there. Steroids aside, these inept pitchers are primarily responsible for the inflated offensive statistics. More runs means more money...yet another reason why the mainstay pitcher is gone perhaps for good.
    What needs to be done now is adjust the honorifics. Award the Cy Young to the best pitching staff, instead of to pitchers who don't go past the 7th, if that far. We see starters considered for the CY when they have ERAs of 4. Absurd. They don't belong on the same continent as Koufax, Marichal, Drysdale, Ford, Carlton, Palmer, Hunter, Seaver...McNally, even. Compared to them, Peavy is just a guy.
  16. J G
    16. Posted by J G Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:14 pm EDT

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    Keeping tabs on W's in baseball statistics is as dumb as keeping tabs on W since he left the White House. They mean nothing.
  17. Jo Bangles
    17. Posted by Jo Bangles Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:18 pm EDT

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    The complete game's been dead for decades. It's not like this is a recent phenomen of the last 2 or 3 years. Dennis Eckersley, Roger McDowell, Bobby Thigpen - just to name a few - were all 1 inning closers in the 80s. I know it seems recent to us old guys, but that was over 20 years ago! The game has changed, get over it.
  18. Al B
    18. Posted by Al B Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:31 pm EDT

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    If you're worried about arm injuries to young pitchers, teach them how to throw changeups and sinkers to go with the heater. Today's pitchers have all kinds of specialized exercises, precise training regimens and the highest level medical care, yet they keep breaking down. Compare them to pot-bellied Mickey Lolich, who threw as many as 376 innings and 29 complete games in a season.
  19. Harold H
    19. Posted by Harold H Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:31 pm EDT

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    Jamie Moyer will get to 300 in early 2013. He will be 50 years old and still throwing that 80mph gas. Who here thinks he cant win 14 games 3 years from now?
  20. Rally
    20. Posted by Rally Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:45 pm EDT

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    In 1971, Mickey Lolich started 45 games, pitched 376 innings, went 25-14, had 29 complete games, faced 1538 hitters and recorded 308 strikeouts . . . and still finished second in Cy Young award balloting to Vida Blue.
    What's the bet that if anybody posted those stats today, he'd be a shoo-in for the CYA??!
  21. Michael W
    21. Posted by Michael W Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:49 pm EDT

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    only problem is that all the wins will end up going to relievers.. and therefore ELIMINATING an already slim chance that anyone new will reach 300 wins
  22. blakecouch
    22. Posted by blakecouch Mon Jun 01, 2009 10:50 pm EDT

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    You got it, JG. W-L for pitchers is maybe the most meaningless stat in baseball. It's been used to attack great pitchers (like Nolan) who pitched for mediocre teams, and inflate the careers of mediocre pitchers who pitched for big-hitting clubs. Setting the standard for starters at 7 innings is no less arbitrary than keeping it at five.
    It seems to me the author might have an actual beef with expansion baseball diluting the pitching talent pool at the big league level. This more than almost any factor but free agency has changed the nature of the game as it's played today, but that's the world we live in. Time to accept it and move on.
  23. baseball maineiac
    23. Posted by baseball maineiac Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:49 pm EDT

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    Pitching 5 innings nowadays is probably equivalent to pitching 8 innings 40 years ago because you don't get a breather facing the 7,8 and 9 hitters like you used to. Through at least the 60's those would typically be a middle infielder, catcher and pitcher all hitting in the low .200's with no power. In today's game your number 8 hitter might be hitting .260 with 20+ home runs. Basically, the easy outs are gone in the modern game. Then you have the multiple pitching changes in the 6th and 7th innings (blame LaRussa if you want). That creates 12 man pitching staffs instead of 9 or 10. That being said, wins for a pitcher are a relatively meaningless stat, kind of like batting average. It meant something when pitchers nearly always completed games but even by the 1920's the trend toward relief pitching as strategy had already begun.
  24. kacsports
    24. Posted by kacsports Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:53 pm EDT

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    I wouldn't be shocked if down the road the requirement for a starter being eligible for a win goes down to four or even three innings for a SP, provided their team never loses the lead...
  25. baseball maineiac
    25. Posted by baseball maineiac Tue Jun 02, 2009 12:13 am EDT

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    Maybe the win should be assigned by the official scorer to the most deserving pitcher. I hate it when a reliever coughs up the lead and then gets the win when the hitters bail him out.

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