World Cup Qualifying Preview: Russia - Slovenia

Kick-off: Saturday November 14, 17:00 CET.
Luzhniki, Moscow

Under Pressure Russia

Given Russia’s over-whelming status as favourites in the tie, the general mood within the Russian camp and public isn’t as positive as one might expect, with many in the country suggesting that their qualification chances are about equal with Slovenia. Their degree of pessimism stems from a natural tendency to portray themselves as underdogs, but also as a result of a number of factors that may turn against Russia over the course of the two encounters.

A number of key players, many of whom earned moves to western European leagues after the success Russia enjoyed at Euro 2008, aren’t getting much of a look-in with their new teams. With the exception of Andrey Arshavin at Arsenal, several others, including Roman Pavlyuchenko and Pavel Pogrebnyak, have failed to settle and are struggling for game-time at their respective club sides.

Several key members of the side still ply their trade in the Russian game, but aren’t in the same form that they showed prior to Euro 2008. With Zenit St. Petersburg and CSKA Moscow players making up a large proportion of the squad in defence and midfield but struggling to keep pace with league leaders Spartak Moscow and Rubin Kazan, it may be that inspirational coach Guus Hiddink has some tough decisions to make pre-kick-off regarding who makes the starting XI.

More Than The Sum Of The Parts

Things couldn’t be more different in the Slovenian camp, as they are quite content to cast themselves as the underdog in this clash heaping yet further pressure on Russia. Slovenia enjoy an outstanding record in play-offs winning their previous two against Ukraine and Romania to book places at tournaments earlier in the decade, so they certainly have the knack of winning these all-important matches.

Team unity has been the key factor in Slovenia’s success in the recent qualifying campaign, with every member of the team keen to stress the bond the squad shares. With no big-name stars to accommodate, there is a sense of purpose and unity seldom witnessed at national level which Slovenia have tapped into. The result is that unlike many national teams who fail to achieve their maximum potential, Slovenia actually exceed what should be possible with relatively limited resources.

Nevertheless this young Slovenian side will have to ensure they don’t lose their nerve at this critical stage. The failures to the more-heralded and better known Czech side have been put down to showing too much respect, and Slovenia will have to make sure they don’t fall into that trap against Russia.

FORM GUIDE

Russia

October 14 v Azerbaijan (A) DREW 1-1(WCQ)

October 10 v Germany (H) LOST 1-0 (WCQ)

September 09 v Wales (A) WON 3-1 (WCQ)

September 05 v Lichtenstein (H) WON 3-0 (WCQ)

August 12 v Argentina (H) LOST 3-2 (Friendly)

Slovenia

October 14 v San Marino (A) WON 3-0 (WCQ)

October 10 v Slovakia (A) WON 2-0 (WCQ)

September 09 v Poland (H) WON 3-0 (WCQ)

September 05 v England (A) LOST 2-1 (Friendly)

August 12 v San Marino (H) WON 5-0 (WCQ)

TEAM NEWS

Russia

Guus Hiddink’s ability to pre-empt problems within his squad will be tested to the maximum against Slovenia and the manager who has guided South Korea, Australia, and the Netherlands to the World Cup will need all his experience. 

Roman Pavlyuchenko is likely to be dropped to the bench, as Hiddink favours in-form match fit players. Aleksandr Kerzakhov could be his replacement but the striker is badly out of form in front of goal having failed to score since mid-August in the Russian league.

The role could fall to Dmitri Sychev of Lokomotiv Moscow, whose 10 league goals this season have been the one bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season for the Railwaymen. Another option, especially given the two-legged nature of this tie, is to opt for just one up front, as they did against Azerbaijan, with Andrey Arshavin leading the line on his own and getting support from CSKA starlet Alain Dzagoev. 

Chelsea left-back Yuri Zhirkov has had even less playing time than his compatriot Pavlyuchenko in London this season, and is another player who could quite possibly make way for either Diniyar Bilyaletdinov or Dimitri Torbinsky. 

Possible Starting XI (4-3-3): Akinfeev; Yanbaev, Ignashevich, Berezutsky, Zhirkov; Bilyaletdinov, Rebko, Semak; Torbinsky, Sychev, Arshavin

Slovenia

The team news from Slovenia is more straight forward with coach Matjaz Kek intending to take the same squad to Russia that he named for the final qualifier last month against San Marino. The only injury concern centres on left-back Bojan Jokic, who is considered a doubt for the game. This may leave Slovenia a little short in this department. If Jokic fails to make the match, then it may require a reshuffle with either Miso Brecko, first choice right-back switching across or FK Moscow right-back Branko Ilic getting a chance to impress against the country where he plies his trade.

Possible Starting XI: Handanovic; Brecko, Suler, Cesar, Jokic (or Ilic); Birsa, Radosavljevic, Stevanovic, Kirm; Novakovic, Dedic

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Russia - Andrey Arshavin

With the onus on Russia to go out and attack much of the goalscoring burden will fall upon Andrei Arshavin’s shoulders. The Arsenal schemer has shown that Russian footballers can adapt to life in Western Europe if given the time to acclimatise. A certain starter against Slovenia, Arshavin may have to lead the line alone and will need all his intelligence to outfox a defence that was the second tightest in the entire European qualifying section. 

Slovenia - Bostjan Cesar

The ex-Marseille centre-back could be one of the key players for Slovenia, if they are to cause an upset over the course of the two matches. Now at Grenoble, the 27-year-old is playing some excellent football and organises the Slovenian back-line well.  He is considered one of the leaders of the team by many of the younger less experienced members of the squad, and he will be vital to imparting some wisdom to them, especially if they go a goal down early in the tie.

Prediction

The first leg of a two match tie can often be a tight affair, and with the Russians perhaps feeling that they can't lose this first game they may be tempted into keeping it tight before looking to snatch a goal in the return match next Wednesday. That attitude will suit the Slovenians down to the ground, so with both teams therefore happy with a draw, it could be a game of few clear cut chances at either end.

Russia 0-0 Slovenia