Russian Coach Guus Hiddink Facing Difficult Decisions?

On the face of it, the match between Russia and Slovenia, the first leg of which is due to take place on Saturday and the return in Slovenia on Wednesday, looks to be a foregone conclusion. Russian football has been buoyant since the semi-final appearance at Euro 2008 some 18-months ago and in the shape of Mr Hiddink, they have one of the sharpest football brains in the business at the helm. 

Slovenia qualified from one of the weakest groups, exploiting the fact that the two top seeds, the Czech Republic and Poland, overwhelmingly under-performed.

Arguably, none of the Slovenian squad would make it into the Russian side. An easy win, therefore, is surely the only logical conclusion.  

Perhaps not. In Russia, pessimism reigns supreme, many rating their country’s chances as 50/50 at best. And there are a number of very good reasons why Muscovites and those from beyond the confines of the capital are a lot less buoyant than the rest of Europe regarding Russian hopes of making it to South Africa in 2010.

Game Time

The first major issue that confronts Guus Hiddink is the startling lack of game time a number of his big-names have had this season.  The success in Austria and Switzerland saw an upsurge in interest in Russian football, building on what many saw as an under-exploited transfer market in the wake of CSKA’s UEFA Cup success back in 2005. 

The vast majority of the Russian squad assembled for those Championships just 18 months ago were almost exclusively comprised of Russian-based players, but the most recent squad contained five foreign based players. On the face of it this is ideal, as Russian players become increasingly exposed to Western European playing methods it can only enhance the strength of the team. Alas it hasn’t worked out like this, with many of the Eastern exports struggling for appearances at their new foreign pay masters.

Leading goal-scorer in qualification, Roman Pavlyuchenko, has been given just two starts this season at Tottenham, both in the Carling Cup.  His playing time in the Premier League barely amounts to one full match, cobbled together from various anonymous substitute appearances, the most depressing of which was an invisible 27 minutes against Stoke.

Yet the most obvious replacement for the tall target-man, former Zenit striker Pavel Pogrebnyak, is having an equally bad time of it since his big-money move to VfB Stuttgart in the summer. He has at least managed two goals for his new team, but hasn’t scored since the middle of September and has found himself increasingly restricted to a supporting role as a result of his lack of potency in front of goal.

Other options, such as the out of form Aleksandr Kerzakhov who hasn’t scored for his club side Dynamo since the middle of August or Dmitri Sychev, who has shown that he probably lacks the required talent to make a genuine and lasting impression on the international scene, are both out of the question as well.

A Change In Formation

In response to these striking problems, Hiddink elected to start with Andrei Arshavin leading the line in a 4-3-3 formation in the meaningless final qualifying match against Azerbaijan. However, that decision also back-fired as Russia stuttered to a 1-1 draw. Therefore, playing Arshavin on his own is probably not the way to go against Slovenia, a far more accomplished side.

The responsibility to partner Arshavin against Slovenia may fall to Rubin’s Alexandr Bukharov, who made his national debut as substitute in the match against Azerbaijan. Good in the air and also comfortable with the ball at his feet, Bukharov hit a sensational long-range goal at the weekend against CSKA Moscow, indicating that he’s more than just a target-man who has got lucky from close range in a side creating plenty of chances. However, he is more or less totally untried at this level, so starting with him could be a risk

Concerns At Left-Back

It’s not just up front where Russia’s foreign legion have been struggling to acclimatise. Yuri Zhirkov's arrival at Stamford Bridge has hardly set the Premier League alight; indeed he has so far only managed one start in the Carling Cup and a substitute appearance in the Champions League.  Not the ideal way to make a first impression on your new employers and fans. 

Nevertheless Zhirkov’s incessant movement and work-rate makes him the ideal candidate for Hiddink to use in a left-back role in a narrow 4-3-3 formation, as he is both reliable in defence and potent when given the chance to raid forward.  The other options in the shape of Dimitri Torbinsky and Diniyar Bilyaletdinov aren’t familiar with the defensive demands of the role and it would be risky to play them there in such an important match.

A Lack Of Form And Confidence

It’s just not a lack of game time that has hampered Russia’s best players, but also a notable loss of form for some of their key players, especially ones based at Zenit St. Petersburg and CSKA Moscow. Zenit have struggled badly this season, eventually sacking Dick Advocaat mid-season. Despite a recovery, they are still remain some way off the standard being set by Spartak Moscow and Rubin Kazan at the top of the table. 

Things are even worse at CSKA Moscow, who have gone through three coaches already this season. With the core of the back-line made up of players from the Army-men (Igor Akinfeev, Sergei Ignashevich and Alexei Berezutsky), Hiddink will be hoping that he can instil his CSKA and Zenit players with a new sense of belief before they take to the pitch against what will be a fired up Slovenia.

For Vladimir Bystrov, the first choice right-sided attacker, it’s neither a lack of form or game time that’s worrying him. The one-time Zenit winger returned after a spell away from the club with Spartak Moscow, and whilst his arrival has coincided with a genuine upturn in fortunes for the 2007 winners of the Russian league, the fans have never forgiven him for leaving in the first place. Even six goals in his first six games did little to dim their fury directed his way, and poor Bystrov has had to endure much booing. Returning to his old ground at the Luzhniki for this game against Slovenia there may be plenty of Spartak fans present looking to vent their frustration at their one-time favourite, especially if things go against Russia.

Nothing In Reserve

With the reduction of the number of foreigners that Russian sides are permitted to field, the Russian FA have clearly recognised that there isn’t a sufficiently large pool of talent for Hiddink to pick from. Under Valery Karpin, Spartak Moscow have shown what can be achieved with promising youngsters such as Pavel Yakolev. However, he is far too young to be risked in such a crucial match, so these exciting developments will come too late to be of any use to Hiddink for these games.

A Journey Of A Thousand Miles Begins With A Single Step

With so much at stake, Hiddink clearly has a number of very difficult decisions ahead of him in the coming hours regarding exactly how he intends to beat a stubborn opponent.

With half of the squad struggling with a combination of fitness concerns, lack of form or loss of confidence, the wily old coach may just find that his journey to South Africa doesn’t just start with a single step, as Chinese philosopher Lao-Tzu once stated, but with a flat battery and leaky tyre.