Setting an over-under for Jimmy Garoppolo starts in 2021
The question about Jimmy Garoppolo’s future with the 49ers started the minute news broke that San Francisco traded up to No. 3 in the draft. One question about his roster status appears to have been answered when the team held onto him through the 2021 draft. He’s likely to be in Santa Clara for at least the start of the season. The next question is whether he begins the year as the starting quarterback, and how many starts he’ll get.
NBC Sports’ Peter King intimated in his ‘Football Morning in America’ column that the 49ers are happy with Garoppolo starting while Trey Lance, the No. 3 overall pick develops behind him. King seemed confident that Garoppolo would get more than a few starts in 2021 for San Francisco.
“I think the over/under on Jimmy Garoppolo starts in 2021 should be about 10,” he wrote. “Give me the over.”
Perhaps this is what the 49ers are planning on without ever seeing Lance practice. A 10-plus game look at Garoppolo gives Lance more than two months to get up to speed, and allows the team enough of a look at Garoppolo to determine whether he’s more effective than Lance would be.
That’s an entirely feasible scenario. The biggest flaw with that line of thinking is that it banks on Garoppolo’s health for more than 10 games. Lack of availability has been perhaps his biggest flaw since the club traded for him in 2017, although not staying healthy began before he arrived in Santa Clara.
Garoppolo was supposed to start four games for the Patriots in 2016 while Tom Brady was suspended. He started two games and got hurt in the second quarter of the second one.
He made it through all five of his starts with the 49ers in 2017, but tore his ACL the following year near the end of Week 3. Garoppolo started all 16 plus three playoff games in 2019, but a pair of high ankle sprains in 2020 limited him to only six starts.
It doesn’t matter whether Lance, Nick Mullens, or whoever is reading this was backing up Garoppolo – betting the over on 10 starts would be an extremely tough call given what we know about Garoppolo’s injury woes over the last five years.
We decided instead of going under on King’s number of 10 to set our own line at 6.5 games. The goal is to get equal action on both sides and 6.5 feels like a good number for that because allows for a few different things to happen.
First, it factors in Garoppolo’s injury history and allows for the possibility he’s only healthy for six or seven games.
The second thing it allows for is King’s scenario where Garoppolo does get half the season or more to start before the 49er hand the keys over to Lance. 11-plus starts isn’t out of the realm of possibilities should Garoppolo’s health cooperate.
There’s also a chance we see Lance start the year and the number goes way under even our 6.5 mark. It seems slim at this point given the relative lack of experience for the No. 3 pick and Garoppolo’s strong familiarity with the offense, but it’s not an outlandish thought that Lance may prove to be the more effective player throughout camp and he gets the reins Week 1 or 2.
Even if Lance doesn’t start right away, Garoppolo could come out and struggle, and if he does – it’s very tough to imagine a team with Super Bowl aspirations would give him a 10 or 11-game leash. The hook in that scenario couldn’t be more than a couple contests.
The bottom line is an over-under of 10 feels extremely lofty given all the things that stack up against the under. More than 10 games means Garoppolo is healthy and playing at a high level while Lance struggled to get his NFL legs under him. Fewer than 10 has a whole host of situations that could play out.
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