Mon Oct 05, 2009 4:38 pm EDT

Rio de Janeiro was just named host of the 2016 Summer Olympics, so you know what that means: Time to start speculating about which city is the favorite to host the Games of 2020!
Fourth-Place Medal ranks the five most likely host cities for the next, next, next Olympics. Each of the cities has, at some point, been rumored to be considering a bid for 2020.
1) Rome -- Rome 2020 has three things going for it: The IOC will want to get back to Europe after Rio de Janeiro, the Games haven't been in the city since 1960 and there are more Italian members of the IOC than any other country.
2) Minneapolis -- The story of the USOC/IOC rift is as overblown this week as it was under-blown last week. Yes, it mattered (we had been warning of this since last August), but it wasn't a bid-killer. There were a half-dozen reasons Chicago didn't get the Games and anti-American bias is just one them. The IOC is, was, and always will be Eurocentric. But it was Eurocentric when Atlanta got the 1996 Games and Eurocentric when Salt Lake City hosted in 2002. It's always a hurdle to overcome, but it can be done. And it will be done sooner rather than later. At some point the IOC is going to have to make some political concessions and come back to the United States. Both Minneapolis and Boston are said to be considering bids for 2020. We'd give the edge to Minneapolis since support from citizenry is a major factor in these things (CHICAGO) and we get the sense that Minnesota would rally behind something as unifying as an Olympic bid. (Little-known fact: Minneapolis finished second in the voting for the 1952 Olympics behind Helsinki.)
3) Madrid -- Always the dama de honor, never la novia.
4) Dubai/Doha -- We're lumping these two cities together (from the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, respectively) because they both have the same pros and cons: The IOC has never gone to the Middle East and, as the Rio vote showed, the organization loves to try things for the first time. More importantly, both of these places are flush with oil money, so funding would be a breeze and the facilities would likely be the greatest the sports world has ever seen. But no amount of money can change the weather, and the 100+ degree average temperatures in these cities in July, August and September make holding outdoor events an impossibility. Yes, they could build climate-controlled domes, but I doubt the IOC would go for that. And what about events that have to be outside like the marathon, rowing, long-distance walking and beach volleyball?
5) Toronto -- All the benefits of the United States without the need to capitulate to the USOC.
Not on the list: Birmingham (seriously, the mayor wants to make a bid) ... Tulsa (see: Birmingham) ... Guadalajara (IOC isn't going to Latin America twice in a row) ... St. Petersburg ... Cape Town (this will happen one day, but the fear of back-to-back southern hemisphere Olympics will prevent it from going down in 2020).
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Posted Nov 27 2009
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