Event: 200-meter freestyle, 2009 World Swimming Championships

When: 12:02 p.m. ET

Possible spoilers: Paul Biedermann, Speedo

Analysis: Michael Phelps hasn't lost a race in a major competition since he was bested by Ian Crocker at the 2005 World Championships. Since then he's swum in 18 events and won them all. That streak is in serious jeopardy of ending this evening in Rome.

Imagine if Usain Bolt had to run in flip-flops or if Alex Ovechkin had to skate in goalie pads. That's what it will be like today for Phelps as he takes to the block in his Speedo LZR, the once-revolutionary suit that has since been far surpassed by models from Arena and Jaked, among others. Due to contractual obligations with Speedo, Phelps has to wear the LZR at the worlds, while his opponents (like the German Biedermann) can wear faster, polyurethane-based suits that can improve times by as much as two seconds. 

Biedermann is basically bringing a gun to a knife fight. If he bests Phelps, it won't be because of ability, it will be because of the research and development team at Arena. 

Last year in Beijing, Biedermann finished fifth in this race, more than three seconds behind Phelps. Now, he's a world record holder in the 400 and the top seed in a race Phelps has dominated for the last half-decade. Has he improved? Sure. But, as even he acknowledges, the suit has played a vital role in that improvement.

It would be foolish to ever count out Michael Phelps. He was supposed to lose his last two 100-meter butterfly races at the '07 Worlds and '08 Olympics, but he pulled out miracles to win. He earned eight gold medals when such a feat should have been impossible. The 200m freestyle final tonight in Rome is yet another obstacle.

The difference this time is that Phelps seems to resigned to losing. His quotes about the suits have a defeatist tinge to them, almost as if the 14-time gold medalist is preparing himself for a loss. That's what we're predicting too.

Even if you're not a swimming fan but for one week out of every four years, you may want to tune in to NBC Universal at noon ET today (or online at this link) to watch what should be a thrilling race. You may see the dethroning of the most decorated athlete in Olympic history. Or you may he see one his greatest triumphs.