A Court of Appeal in Vancouver began hearing arguments today about why female ski jumpers should have the right to compete in the upcoming Winter Olympics. There are claims of sexism and discrimination, threats of cancelling the men's event if the women don't get a chance to jump and more sniping than a political campaign. But there's also one sobering reality for the 14 female ski jumpers who brought the lawsuit against the Vancouver Organizing Committee: With only 92 days left before the Opening Ceremony, it's difficult to envision that their ultimate goal, a medal event in the 2010 Winter Games, will be achieved.

At issue is whether the Olympics are subject to Canada's discrimination laws. In the first court case a judge said it's not, since the Winter Games are organized by the IOC and the IOC isn't subject to Canadian law. However, the counter-argument is that VANOC shouldn't be allowed to break the law since hosting the Olympics is a government activity. The judge also disagreed with that point. (Nowhere, you'll notice, do you really hear anything about ski jumping in the court case.)

Here at Fourth-Place Medal we focus on curling and swimming, not torts and Habeas Corpus, so we'll leave the legal analysis to others. As a practical matter though, this looks like an up(ski jumping)hill climb for the female jumpers.

It's tough to believe that sexism is at the root of the IOC's decision to not put women's ski jumping on the 2010 schedule. Forty years ago, maybe. (Heck, twenty years ago too.) But we now live in a world where women's hockey and boxing are on the Olympic slate. Why would there be so much resistance to ski jumping?

Like all IOC decisions, it boils down to money. If the organization thought it could make money from female ski jumping, it would have been on the schedule years ago. All of the reasons the IOC gives for keeping out the sport (not enough world championships, too few top-tier competitors) are just code for "we don't think we'll sell enough tickets or get enough people to watch on TV". 

The other main problem facing women's ski jumping is time (as in, there's not too much left). Logistical concerns like housing, security, ticketing, scheduling and transportation would make adding another event almost impossible three months out from the Olympics. Even if the Court of Appeal rules in favor of the 14 ski jumpers, an appeal by VANOC could stretch this saga out long enough to any victory by the women purely a moral one.

Win or lose, women's ski jumping is legitimizing itself. By 2014 there won't need to be any lawsuits. Next year, expect the IOC to add the sport to the schedule for the Sochi Olympics.