Oklahoma State entered the weekend at No. 2 in the BCS standings, and kicked off a wacky BCS-busting weekend with a two-overtime loss at Iowa State. 24 hours ago, it appeared OSU's shot at the national championship game was left on the turf in Ames, Iowa. After a wild weekend in the BCS top 10, where does OSU wind up when the BCS standings are released on Sunday night? Here is our unscientific look at things:
Worst-case for OSU
Six zero or one-loss teams did not lose in week 12. No. 9 Stanford is leading Cal 28-21 as I'm typing.
8. Virginia Tech
10. Boise State
Given that OSU has just one-loss, you can reject all two-loss teams. In the week 11 standings, No. 12 was the dividing line between 0/1-loss teams and those with two, so everyone below 12 is irrelevant to this discussion. Here are the teams that joined that grouping.
New two-loss teams:
How we're reaching the worst-case status of eighth should be apparent at this point. Where OSU lands between the worst- and best-case will depend on the human polls and computers. In the human polls, voters are unlikely to place OSU below one-loss Boise and undefeated Houston. Virginia Tech and Stanford (assuming they hold on against Cal) would be question marks at this point. Arkansas would seem likely to be ahead of OSU in the human polls.
In the computers, the Cowboys have been strong all season, as has the Big 12 overall. It seems reasonable to expect OSU will remain strong relative to everyone except the SEC teams.
Our overall (*totally unscientific) projection for OSU on Sunday night:
4. Stanford - assuming a win against Cal
5. Oklahoma State