Skip to search.

Trending Now:

  1. Brad Richards
  2. LA Kings
  3. NY Rangers
  4. Coyotes
  5. Ryan Suter

Red Wings Blogs

Puck Daddy on the Red Wings

  • Stanley Cup Playoff overtimes: Historically, when are goals most likely to be scored?

    The Los Angeles Kings did some unpredictable things, statistically speaking, en route to making the Stanley Cup Final: Like going 8-0 on the road, nearly having as many shorthanded goals (5) as power-play goals (6) and beating the top three seeds in the conference.

    Dustin Penner's Western Conference Final-winning goal was no exception. Pancakes scored at 17:42 of the first and only overtime, and according to the history of Stanley Cup Playoff overtime, that's an exception to the expected.

    Chris Winchester, a Detroit Red Wings for 35 years and a PD reader, put together a spreadsheet that looked at when goals were scored in playoff overtimes going back to expansion in 1968. From Winchester:

    I always had the feeling that most overtimes ended in the first 5 minutes or so of overtime.  After compiling the data for every playoff overtime game it turns out that over 40 percent of overtime games ended in the first five minutes of the extra period. I did not calculate the fact that the game may have ended in the 2nd or 3rd overtime, just the time the goal was scored during the extra period.

    In other words, the following chart doesn't account for in which overtime the goal was scored, but rather when in that overtime it was scored.

    Via Winchester, the numbers; click here for the much larger, clearer image.

    Again, take a gander at the full chart here. A few thoughts on this chart …

    • This was the first overtime game of the conference final round, and the first overtime game of the 2012 playoffs since the Washington Capitals and New York Rangers went long on May 7.

    • The Penner goal was only the second of the postseason to occur in the final five minutes of an overtime period; the other was Alexei Ponikarovsky's goal at 17:21 of the first OT in the New Jersey Devils' Game 3 win over the Philadelphia Flyers.

    • As you can see, Winchester has determined that the NHL has a new benchmark for games ending in the first five minutes of an overtime period with 14.

    • There have only been three seasons since 1968 in which more overtime games ended in the second 10 minutes of an extra session than in the first 10.

    • Finally, while the number of overtime games has been high for the last two postseasons, they're not necessarily a product of the "charity point/shootout" regular season OT model adopted after the lockout. Rather, they're symptomatic of the NHL's turn toward defensive systems — from 1995 to 2012, the playoffs have averaged 18.29 overtime games per postseason. Wonder if the turn from divisional play to a conference seeding format played into it as well.

    (Ed. Note: Thanks to Brad Forster for this reminder: The division semifinals was a best-of-five affair until the 1986—87 season, when it became a best-of-seven series.)

    Thanks to Chris for the research. We now feel a little more comfortable getting up and grabbing a beer in the last five minutes of an oh crap Penner just scored …

  • Detroit Red Wings face complicated decision on Tomas Holmstrom’s future

    Tomas Holmstrom, shown here in his natural habitat, is a 39-year-old with a 93-year-old's body (in hockey terms). He's also a folk hero for the Detroit Red Wings, scoring the dirtiest of dirty goals in playing a primary role on three Stanley Cup winning teams (appearing on a fourth).

    As Helene St. James of the Freep notes, unrestricted free agent Holmstrom could decide his career is at an end, or he could desire to play another year with the Red Wings after scoring 11 goals in 74 games last season.

    The question is whether GM Ken Holland wants him taking a roster spot from a young, faster offensive player. Via Ansur Khan at MLive.com:

    "I told (Holmstrom) a couple of weeks ago we won't decide anything until after the pro scouting meetings,'' Holland said. "We want him to decide if he's healthy and if he has the passion and the energy to play another season.

    "It's not strictly his call. We have to look at our team and decide what we're doing.''

    That includes deciding whether there's a better offensive alternative on the roster or in the system.

    From the Freep:

    Speed is of an essence in today's game. The Wings have young players knocking, guys like Gustav Nyquist, even Tomas Tatar, though the odds are against Tatar because he has a year left of waiver-exempt eligibility. But as it stands right now, the Wings already have 11 forwards under contract for next season, counting Nyquist, and counting Patrick Eaves, who is recovering from a concussion. And the Wings want very much to upgrade up front, to add a top-six forward via free agency.

    Under coach Mike Babcock, there's been an emphasis on expanding the team's net-front presence to include guys like Danny Cleary and Todd Bertuzzi, especially on power play units. Holmstrom keeps making the cut because he does it better than anyone, but his effectiveness has been limited as years of playing punishing hockey has taken its toll.

    Complicating matters is the relationship between Holmstrom and captain Nicklas Lidstrom.

    If Lidstrom wants to give Detroit a 21st season, it's reasonable to assume Holmstrom would give it a go again. It's also reasonable to assume that Lidstrom might, ahem, suggest bringing his close friend back next season would clear the runway for his own return to the Red Wings.

    As Coach Mike Babcock said after the season: "Are they a pair? I don't know the answer."

    Best scenario for the Wings? Holmstrom retires and Lidstrom returns. But is that realistic?

More Puck Daddy »

Winging It In Motown Winging It In Motown

from
More Winging It In Motown »

Red Wings Fans on

  • Red Wings Fans on Flickr
  • Red Wings Fans on Flickr
  • Red Wings Fans on Flickr
Go to Red Wings Flickr Group »

Red Wings Blog Roll

Are we missing a great Red Wings blog?

Let us know by submitting a url: