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"I guess that's the way the whole durned human comedy keeps perpetuatin' itself." -- "The Stranger" in "The Big Lebowski."

Truer words were never spoken, even out of context. The Western Conference playoff race has been one such human comedy, or perpetual tragedy, depending on the night's results. Yesterday, the Columbus Blue Jackets solidified their playoff seeding; the Nashville Predators toppled the San Jose Sharks to move back into a postseason slot; the St. Louis Blues continued to keep pace with the postseason pack; and the Los Angeles Kings kept their faint hopes alive while costing the Dallas Stars a point in the standings.

Every team from the seventh seed down to the 13th has played 74 games, and they're separated by eight points, giving us one hell of a finish.

Beyond the obvious -- how much would playoff ticket revenue mean in cities like Nashville and St. Louis? -- the final two spots in the Stanley Cup playoff draw could dramatically alter the chase for the Cup; if you believe either the San Jose Sharks or Detroit Red Wings are, given the right matchup, susceptible to an upset.

Coming up, a look at the stretch run for the bottom of the Western Conference playoff standings. Who do you think will fill the seventh and eighth seeds at the end of the season?

Two great sites to keep an eye on during the playoff race, and whose information we're sharing here: Sports Club Stats, which tracks playoff probability percentages, and NHL Playoff Race, which tracks teams' "tragic numbers" (the amount of points lost by a team or gained by the eighth place team that would mathematically eliminate a team), among other factors.

As an example of how quickly these things can change, take tonight's Ducks/Oilers game. According to Sports Club, the Ducks currently have a 64.6-percent chance of making the playoffs; with a win tonight, it jumps to 77.1. The Oilers have a 33.8-percent chance before the game; with a win, it leaps to 49.9. 

Here's a glance at the contenders, the probabilities (before tonight's action), "tragic numbers" for elimination and remaining games.

Anaheim Ducks

7th place, 80 points; Chance of Finishing Seventh: 34 %; Chance of Finishing Eighth: 21%. Remaining Games: Mar 27 vs. Edmonton; Mar 29 vs. Colorado; Mar 31 at Edmonton; Apr 2 at Vancouver; Apr 4 at San Jose; Apr 5 vs. San Jose; Apr 10 vs. Dallas; Apr 11 at Phoenix.

We called the Ducks for the playoffs, and so far we're looking like smarty-pants with the hockey they've been playing. The two games against the Oilers are critical; the two games against San Jose are fascinating in the sense that the Sharks need them for a run at the top seed and, conversely, they could determine if the first all-California playoff series since expansion finally happens in the Western Conference.

Nashville Predators

8th place, 80 points; Chance of Finishing Seventh: 14%; Chance of Finishing Eighth: 20%. Remaining Games: Mar 28 vs. Los Angeles; Mar 29 at Detroit; Mar 31 at Columbus; Apr 3 at Chicago; Apr 4 vs. Columbus; Apr 7 vs. Chicago; Apr 9 at Detroit; Apr 10 at Minnesota.

The Predators are four games under .500 on the road, so the tilt in the schedule doesn't help. Does Nashville need a sweep at home to make the cut? Better question: Can Jason Arnott come back at some point in these eight games?

Edmonton Oilers

9th place, 79 points; Tragic Number: 15 points; Chance of Finishing Seventh: 15%; Chance of Finishing Eighth: 17%. Remaining Games: Mar 27 at Anaheim; Mar 29 vs. Minnesota; Mar 31 vs. Anaheim 9:00 pm; Apr 2 vs. San Jose; Apr 4 vs. Vancouver; Apr 7 vs. Los Angeles; Apr 10 vs. Calgary; Apr 11 at Calgary.

Nothing like having your season on the line against your arch nemesis in the last weekend of the season, huh? The Flames could still be a dogfight for the division title at that point, too. The Anaheim games will tell us a lot about what this Edmonton team really is, as Dwayne Roloson has done his share of bailing them out lately. They're a tough team to figure out; minus-18 in the second period for the season? The hell?

St. Louis Blues

10th place, 79 points; Tragic Number: 14 points; Chance of Finishing Seventh: 11%; Chance of Finishing Eighth: 18%. Remaining Games: Mar 28 vs. Columbus; Mar 29 at Columbus; Apr 1 at Chicago; Apr 2 at Detroit; Apr 4 at Dallas; Apr 7 at Phoenix; vs. Columbus 8:30 pm; Apr 12 at Colorado.

The new darlings of the underdog set, the Blues are playing on borrowed time but a rather hopeful path to the playoffs: They've not played well on the road (three games under .500), but at least three of their games away from home down the stretch are incredibly winnable. Dan Hinote's quote about what drives this team: "You start pulling on the same rope and you realize that we may not be a great team on paper, but we're a great team. We all believe in each other because we're all kind of underdogs. That's a dangerous group when you put a bunch of people like that on the same team... because we believe in each other but people are counting us out."

Minnesota Wild

11th place, 78 points; Tragic Number: 14 points; Chance of Finishing Seventh: 11%; Chance of Finishing Eighth: 17%. Games Remaining: Mar 28 at Calgary; Mar 29 at Edmonton; vs. Vancouver; Apr 3 vs. Calgary 8:00 pm; Apr 5 at Detroit; Apr 7 vs. Dallas; Apr 10 vs. Nashville; Apr 11 at Columbus.

This is a scary team if and when it gets center Mikko Koivu or defenseman Brent Burns back; and Koivu could be back this weekend, according to the Pioneer Press. Marian Gaborik has played some outstanding offensive hockey since his return. If the offense can figure itself out against better competition than the Islanders, the Wild could easily be the eight seed. Then again, there isn't an easy game left on the schedule, especially when you consider Niklas Backstrom is 0-2-1 against the Stars this season.

Dallas Stars

12th place, 75 points; Tragic Number: 11 points; Chance of Finishing Seventh: 1%; Chance of Finishing Eighth: 3%. Remaining Games: Mar 28 vs. Florida; Mar 30 at Phoenix; Mar 31 at Los Angeles; Apr 2 vs. Calgary; Apr 4 vs. St. Louis; Apr 7 at Minnesota; Apr 9 at Colorado; Apr 10 at Anaheim.

In all probability, it's over for Dallas, sitting five points out. But then you look at a schedule with three games against teams playing out the string and three games against teams the Stars are chasing. And you start to think about the resiliency this team has shown in the face of massive injuries and turmoil all season. Again, they seem destined to miss the cut, based on their inconsistent play. But is it over? And if it isn't, how badly do the Sharks and Wings really hope it is for Dallas?

Los Angeles Kings

13th place, 72 points; Tragic Number: 8 points; Chance of Finishing Seventh: 0. Chance of Finishing Eighth: 0. Mar 28 at Nashville; Mar 31 vs. Dallas; Apr 2 at Phoenix; Apr 4 vs. Phoenix; Apr 6 at Calgary; Apr 7 at Edmonton; Apr 9 at Vancouver; Apr 11 vs. San Jose.

So long, and thanks for all the fish. Terry Murray and Jonathan Quick brought this team deeper into the postseason hunt than anyone thought possible. But when your playoff hopes rest on the twin miracles of your own running of the table and other teams' complete collapse ... well, then it's time to wonder what that nutty Dean Lombardi's going to do in the offseason to put the Kings over the top.

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65 Comments

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  1. Bobby D
    1. Posted by Bobby D Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:45 pm EDT

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    Its not over til its over.......go Stars!
  2. Dewman
    2. Posted by Dewman Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:42 pm EDT

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    dang it
  3. Bobby D
    3. Posted by Bobby D Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:45 pm EDT

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    whats the big deal about being first? I don't get it....
  4. grinch
    4. Posted by grinch Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:45 pm EDT

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    Don't try too hard trying to understand what stupid people do.
  5. J Mill
    5. Posted by J Mill Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:37 pm EDT

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    Watch out if the Blues make it and play San Jose in the first round - they have a winning record against the Sharks this year, they are (and if they make it, will have been) red hot, they play hard every shift (unless it's against Detroit... :-( ), and Chris Mason's on fire!
    Not to mention, the karma factor if the Sharks win the President's Trophy and play St. Louis - I'd predict that the Sharks would win game 1, the Blues games 2-4, the Sharks come back and force game 7, but lose when Nabokov lets in a freak goal by Keith Tkachuk in the last seconds of the first period.
    No, I'm not still bitter about that!
  6. blarg
    6. Posted by blarg Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:14 pm EDT

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    "The Predators are four games under .500 on the road, so the tilt in the schedule doesn't help."
    It is a tough schedule but if I figure correct they're 6-4-2 on the road since the all star break.
  7. habs1rule
    7. Posted by habs1rule Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:15 pm EDT

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    I just looked at each teams schedule, and its a toss up. My gut tells me Minnesota finishes 8th, and Anaheim 7th. Thats if the Wild gets Gaborik going.
  8. cwizzle
    8. Posted by cwizzle Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:48 pm EDT

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    Blues have some tough games on the road too( CHI,DET,CLB), but this is a determined looking hockey club. I'd be scared if I were SJ or DET....smells like a first round upset. GO NOTE!
  9. T.J Oshie it!
    9. Posted by T.J Oshie it! Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:44 pm EDT

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    As a hopeless Blues fan, I'll say their playoff hopes are likely if they keep getting the solid goaltending from Mason. It's a bit unrealistic to expect them to bounce Detroit or San Jose in the first round; I think the only way it would be even remotely possible is if the Blues met San Jose and Nabokov had serious trouble.
    Even though the thought of sending Detroit home so very early makes me tingle all over, I'll be the first to admit it's not happening this year.
  10. Coach4Prez
    10. Posted by Coach4Prez Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:00 pm EDT

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    Dream on J Mill. dream on - even if St Louis gets in, they play either the Sharks or Detroit. An it's there that the run will end....BBWWWAAAAAHHHHHH!
  11. JQP
    11. Posted by JQP Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:14 pm EDT

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    "posted by bobby d fri mar 27, 2009 4:39 pm edt - whats the big deal about being first? i don't get it.... "
    being first would mean home ice advantage throughout the conference playoffs, and if that team makes the cup finals, all probability of home ice advantage there too.
    if that's not understood, i would recommend following less math "intensive" subjects.
  12. M
    12. Posted by M Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:59 pm EDT

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    JQP, that was hiysterical. Really!
    Thirteenth
  13. Bobby D
    13. Posted by Bobby D Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:45 pm EDT

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    @ JQP and M....I am referring to the second post.....no a playoff seed....idiots
    2. Posted by Dewman Fri Mar 27, 2009 4:31 pm EDT Report Abuse
    first
    If that’s not understood, I would recommend going back to grade school
  14. Almost Lewboski
    14. Posted by Almost Lewboski Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:46 pm EDT

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    It's always nice to see the 'Stranger' quoted. The Stars playoff chances are "darker then an angus steers' tookus on a moonless night'.
  15. Mat
    15. Posted by Mat Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:10 pm EDT

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    Keep writin' 'em off, Coach4Prez, keep it up...
  16. Royknwsall0331
    16. Posted by Royknwsall0331 Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:28 pm EDT

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    I think Detroit is an absolute lock to get to the 2nd round regardless of who they play. San jose is more likely to be upset in the first round.
  17. Fin-atic
    17. Posted by Fin-atic Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:25 pm EDT

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    I don't think SJ will have an easy time with anyone in the first round because of the expectations being held over their heads to finally deliver. That and every team has been pumped up to play SJ this season, so it hasn't exactly been easy for them to win. That being said, I wouldn't bet on any team besides Det, SJ, or Calgary to make it to the finals in the West.
  18. Marc M
    18. Posted by Marc M Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:06 pm EDT

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    Hey Stars fan that spit in my face during the game 5 the Stars were given in Dallas last year, how does home for the playoffs taste!!!
  19. James S
    19. Posted by James S Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:02 pm EDT

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    Does anyone really want to play Columbus right now? With that goaltending, and better foward lines now, They can be dangerous.
  20. cwizzle
    20. Posted by cwizzle Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:48 pm EDT

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    james CLB is the scariest team in hockey right now.
  21. HitThePost
    21. Posted by HitThePost Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:23 pm EDT

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    The Sharks are the great pretenders heading into the post season, as I mentioned on an earlier post. The Sharks standing masks its struggles since the All Star break, where they are 14-9-6 in 29 games. Compare that to Detroit's 18-6-2 in 26 games. Even if the Sharks make it past the first round, which is looking increasingly doubtful, no way are they making it past Detroit in the post season. I think whoever gets them in the first round should breathe a sigh of relief and plan for round 2 revenues.
  22. RICO_22
    22. Posted by RICO_22 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:39 pm EDT

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    If tthe BLUES
  23. Fin-atic
    23. Posted by Fin-atic Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:25 pm EDT

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    #22 I think you "hit the post" too many times. If you look up the Sharks playoff history, they usually fold in round 2. As for Detroit, I give them even odds. You never know with those two teams or even who might get injured between now and then.
  24. RICO_22
    24. Posted by RICO_22 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:39 pm EDT

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    If tthe BLUES

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