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"People have been telling me I'll be No. 1 for a long time and expectations grow ... I've been playing in the (OHL) for three years now and people start to pick my game apart a little more and more, but I think it helps me improve my game where I need to." - John Tavares, Ottawa Sun, July 28, 2008.

To say John Tavares hasn't been the consensus No. 1 selection for next year's draft would be like saying "The Dark Knight" has received mixed reviews. Like Sidney Crosby and Eric Lindros before him, he's inspired his own derby of teams whose lack of success could land them a franchise player; from the Florida Panthers to the St. Louis Blues to the New York Islanders. Hell, even Vancouver Canucks fans were wondering if their team should tank for Tavares.

The Toronto Maple Leafs tried to rewrite the rules to sign him early; and Tavares and his agent tried to change NHL Draft policy to make special exceptions for players in his situation.

Of course, pre-draft hype and being ordained as "The Next One" mean nothing if the player isn't as good as his headlines. For examples, this probably wasn't the first fan page for Alexandre Daigle -- but it may have been the last.

So the question becomes: Is Lance Hornby's near-blasphemous article in today's Toronto Sun about scouts being down on Tavares, and his No. 1 position being in jeopardy, reasonable backlash or the beginning of his Phil Kessel descent in next year's draft?

From the Sun:

His third OHL campaign with the Oshawa Generals saw his goal total reduced from 72 to 40, though his 118 points in eight fewer games than 2006-07 was not a significant drop. "I would say he let up last year, that he wasn't as intense," one scout said. "The passion to score when he goes from the blueline in wasn't as great, but he's still an elite athlete.

There's an alternative view of Tavares's stats from Matt Bugg over at Dobber Hockey, who noted last year that "eight of the Top 15 in All-Time NHL goals and ten of the greatest scorers the NHL has ever seen were not junior league leaders at John Tavares' age or older. With that in mind, let's just sit back and enjoy the show."

Back to the Sun, which delves into potential off-ice issues with Tavares:

Another scout said Tavares' dumping of Siskinds Sports Management and primary agent Bryan Deasley last season for the higher profile Creative Artists Agency "raised some red flags" among NHL teams. But the same scout said it was too early to think Tavares could not retain Central Scouting's top perch by June. "Maybe he got stale last year, but this is a big year coming up for him," said the scout.

First off, if the move to CAA raised "red flags" around the NHL, what would have happened if Tavares had kept his interim agent, a.k.a. Mom, as his handler? Insiders would have labeled this kid a draft gamble faster than you could say "Bonnie Lindros."

That said, it remains a critical year on the ice for Tavares. This is a whole different level of pressure on the kid. He's like an A-plus student at a prep school who needs to maintain that average while he enchants Ivy League recruiters.

It's hard to believe Tavares won't still be the first player drafted next summer, especially if the Leafs somehow land the top pick. (And by "somehow," we mean "retire, Mats.") But he's clearly on notice now from the NHL's draft-watchers.

If there's one thing the League knows how to market correctly, it's a super-rookie, so here's hoping Tavares goes No. 1. And besides, he gives a decent interview...even if the questioner is wearing an athletic tape mustache:

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36 Comments

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  1. Holy Diver 83
    1. Posted by Holy Diver 83 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:10 pm EDT

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    The Isles will win just enough games to be like 3rd or 4th. always a bridesmaid never a bride anymore! But suffering adds character, LET'S GO ISLANDERS!
  2. J.P.
    2. Posted by J.P. Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:42 pm EDT

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    I think the CAA-related concerns center on the fact that CAA's just getting into the sports agency business. Granted, they're diving in and making a big splash, but they're a Hollywood talent agency (and a bunch of d-bags), so the concern that they - and by extension their clients - would be more interested in image and branding than some more traditional agencies (Meehan's group, for example) may not be too far-fetched.
    But given the incredibly restrictive parameters related to entry level deals under the current CBA (you or I could negotiate a rookie deal pretty easily), a focus on off-ice (endorsements and whatnot) management for a top kid makes a ton of sense.
  3. Wyshynski
    3. Posted by Wyshynski Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:21 pm EDT

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    @ J.P. --
    It really shouldn't be a concern. As you said, the rookie salary structure is what it is. Maybe some of the fogies running the league think Tavares is going to star in a sitcom during the off-season?
  4. J.P.
    4. Posted by J.P. Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:42 pm EDT

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    No, I agree - I was just adding to the explanation of where that concern may come from.
    Hollywood scares old white people, and they fear that a live action "Aquaman" starring Tavares could be the highest-grossing film debut ever.
  5. Greg D
    5. Posted by Greg D Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:43 pm EDT

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    Victor Hedman is going to be the #1 pick. He's in the Chris Pronger mold.
  6. ~jai~
    6. Posted by ~jai~ Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:21 pm EDT

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    He's more of a Wonder Twin from SuperFriends than Aquaman, but good call.
  7. Mike K
    7. Posted by Mike K Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:19 pm EDT

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    Hedman is a safer pick then tavares, he is the swedish answer to pronger .... tavares wont be a mega star a-la crosby -ovechkin unless he improves outside the other teams blueline
  8. Wyshynski
    8. Posted by Wyshynski Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:21 pm EDT

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    @ Greg D
    When you say, "in the Chris Pronger mold," do you mean he's a dominating defenseman or a Grade A dillweed?
  9. Hell Followed After
    9. Posted by Hell Followed After Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:40 pm EDT

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    hey wysh, do you play any hockey. i'm new here and don't know anything about you, except everyone thinks you stink
  10. mike b
    10. Posted by mike b Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:11 pm EDT

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    Whome, Wysh does stink... but he's real cooool... check out his awesome pic at the top of the page. Who wouldn't want to read THAT GUY's opinion about hockey daily, no matter how demented.
  11. Shum
    11. Posted by Shum Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:10 pm EDT

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    If Atlanta doesn't finish last in the NHL this year I'll be amazed. This might finally give Kovalchuk one other player on his team with any offensive talent because Tavares should be a hands down number one pick. You don't call a kid the "Next Great One" to not select him first overall; that is of course unless the "Great One" is the first overall pick.
  12. Rumpelstilzchen
    12. Posted by Rumpelstilzchen Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:32 pm EDT

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    Woah J.P. Keep the posts dumb, please.
  13. ScottyWazz
    13. Posted by ScottyWazz Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:22 pm EDT

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    Another thing that could have lead to the drop-off was his non-stop playing last season. With Team Canada in the Summit Series and WJC to the regular season with the Generals, that's a lot of hockey for a player the age of Tavares.
    That said, I think it's a toss-up for who's going to be #1 whether it be JT or Hedman. Personally, I don't see it as clear-cut as you do Gregy-Pooh.
  14. BRIAN S
    14. Posted by BRIAN S Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:14 pm EDT

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    DILLWEED!
    Doughty !!!!!!!!
  15. HOCKEY PUCK
    15. Posted by HOCKEY PUCK Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:28 pm EDT

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    sabres should tank it and get him yeah baby oh that will happen anyways
  16. Peeler
    16. Posted by Peeler Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:02 pm EDT

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    Shum....forget Atlanta....Ilya has alread had other guys around his selfish @ss....a 18 yr old kid won't help that pathethic organization......IMO Toronto or LA (who will blow it again) will get the #1....
  17. which one???
    17. Posted by which one??? Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:21 pm EDT

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    SEAN AVERY IS STILL A BEE-OTCH!!!!! RANGERS SUCK!!!! PLEASE BUILD US A NEW (MODERN DAY) ARENA WANG!!! ....AND MORE ICE GIRLS PLEASE!!!! (how many do u think DP banged already) Yeah DP, you Pimp daddy!!!!
  18. ewryg
    18. Posted by ewryg Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:40 pm EDT

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    Greg Wyshynski can go suck on a big juicy cock
  19. Merc
    19. Posted by Merc Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:16 pm EDT

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    Sorry Which - your boys will majorly suck again this year, but not enough to get the 1st pick. So get used to looking up at the Rangers (kinda like how your Mom looks up at me during oral), cuz you'll be doing it for the next decade or so
  20. Hyphen
    20. Posted by Hyphen Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:24 pm EDT

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    The dude nets 118 points in 59 games, 11 more than this years golden boy Stamkos, good enough for 3rd in the league total best in the league on per game basis and people are concerned? I'm not buying it at all. I expect him to have an equally decent year this year then get drafted by a bad hockey team that will taint his career until his rookie contract runs out and he can escape on the FA market. Get your Tavares jerseys ready Isles and Jackets fans!
  21. Hyphen
    21. Posted by Hyphen Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:24 pm EDT

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    Good Luck on Mats retiring Toronto fans. You guys should pull a Packers and try and pay him not to come back next year, or healthy scratch him for half the season and intentionally lose games like the Sens circa 1992.
  22. cristobal
    22. Posted by cristobal Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:24 pm EDT

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    when will the simians running the nhl accept the future of sports - no drafts, let these teams sign 4 year olds if they want. wayne rooney was 16 and playing top flight english football. - start promotion and relegation - get these teams that want to sit around and soak up the profits out of the league and into the ahl. if you want to sell off your talent and still sell seats, do it in kansas city or labrador. - invite the world to start playing with the nhl. i would really love to see if my LA Kings had a chance in hell of beating CSKA moscow or even Minsk. Hockey is the star, monkeys. Not Bettman, not Crosby, not Daly, Not Gretzky.....open up the game to the rest of the world....I can turn on the television and see the World Under 20 olympic qualifiers of soccer, but I cannot watch the World Championships of Hockey each year or any Junior Hockey from Canada.
  23. Mike K
    23. Posted by Mike K Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:19 pm EDT

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    stamkos is a way better all around player then tavares....watch them play instead of watching the scoresheets.....tavares is missing in his own end at times and stamkos has way more agility and speed then tavares....although i will give tavares props that he could be the most dominant player on a power play in the league in little time
  24. Josh T
    24. Posted by Josh T Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:43 pm EDT

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    The Islanders will finish dead last, giving them the best opportunity to get the number 1 pick and THEN will lose out... A super rookie in Florida, wow, that has "crap-tacular " written all over it! Poor kid...
  25. cristobal
    25. Posted by cristobal Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:24 pm EDT

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    this rewards-for-losing system s*cks. Poor kid is right....

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