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Since we're down to the final moments of postseason life for teams in contention, Puck Daddy solemnly begins a daily countdown to annihilation.

Flip a coin. Bet on black. Do all of the usual clichés that represent a 50/50 chance of something occurring, and you'll understand the New York Rangers' playoff probability after their loss to the Boston Bruins on Saturday and the Florida Panthers' season-saving win against the Pittsburgh Penguins the following day.

According to Sports Club Stats, the Rangers have exactly a 50.0-percent chance of making the playoffs. The Panthers, with their win and other factors, saw their probability increase 13.5 percent to 44.1; again, not exactly optimal with time running out, but they're right back in this.

Of course, the Rangers have one significant advantage in this duel to the finish: Both teams have 89 points in 79 games, but the Rangers have 40 wins to the Panthers' 39. The road isn't easy at all for New York -- a game against the Montreal Canadiens, and then two games against the Philadelphia Flyers to end the season -- but technically the Rangers control their own fate.

The Panthers, meanwhile, have the Flyers, Atlanta Thrashers and Washington Capitals remaining. Which is to say two games they're going to play extraordinarily well in, sandwiched around a trap game they'll ultimately look back on as the end of their run.

Coming up, the playoff picture for both conferences, including a Western Conference where the Ducks are sliding back to the pack.

The following Western Conference playoff picture is painted by the invaluable resources from Sports Club Stats, which offers percentage probabilities for teams, and NHL Playoff Race, which provides the "tragic numbers" (the amount of points gained by the eight seed and/or lost by a team chasing it) for teams.

For the West:

Team

Place/Record/Pts.

Tragic #

% Chance of 7th

% Chance of 8th

Nashville Predators

8th/39-32-8/86

-

10

31

St. Louis Blues

9th/38-31-10/86

6

17

33

Minnesota Wild

10th/37-33-9/83

3

1

6

Edmonton Oilers

11th/37-33-9/83

3

0

3

The Anaheim Ducks' loss to the San Jose Sharks had a slight impact on the race: Their overall probability dropped 3.7 percent to 92.4 overall, while the Blues (plus 1.5), Predators (plus 1.1), Wild (plus 0.6) and Oilers (plus 0.3) saw tiny upticks for their chances.

Overall, the Blues (57.3 percent chance of making the postseason) and Predators (42.5 percent) are the two teams with legitimate, non-apocalyptic chances of making the dance in that eight seed. Nashville's game against the Chicago Blackhawks on Tuesday could tell us a lot about where this is going.

Higher up the food chain, the Calgary Flames are tied with the Vancouver Canucks with 94 points, but have a game in-hand -- which is why Sports Club Stats gives them a 66-percent probability of finishing third, while Vancouver has a 61-percent probability of finishing fifth.

Meanwhile, in the Eastern Conference:

Team

Place/Record/Pts.

Tragic #

% Chance of 7th

% Chance of 8th

New York Rangers

8th/40-30-9/89

-

6

43

Florida Panthers

9th/39-29-11/89

6

3

41

Buffalo Sabres

10th/38-31-9/85

4

0

7

The Sabres face the Detroit Red Wings on Versus tonight for their game in-hand on the Rangers and Panthers. Good luck with that.

The seeding for the first round is still completely unpredictable. If the playoffs started today, the Washington Capitals would face the Montreal Canadiens; the New Jersey Devils would take on the Pittsburgh Penguins; the Philadelphia Flyers would face off against the Carolina Hurricanes; and Tim Thomas would play Sean Avery.

That said, there's a 32 percent chance right now that the Devils take the No. 2 seed; there's a 29 percent chance the Habs place sixth; and there's even an 11 percent chance the Flyers place sixth.

Man, this is fun. Viva la Vortex of Death!

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103 Comments

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  1. Cd T
    1. Posted by Cd T Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:39 pm EDT

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    The Rangers will be the #7 seed in the East and Win it all!!!!
  2. scott g
    2. Posted by scott g Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:08 pm EDT

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    damnit
  3. GT
    3. Posted by GT Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:14 pm EDT

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    Beware of the Thrashers!! They apparently don't think too much of this Tavares kid, or at least they're playing like they're not too interested in his services!
  4. Gary D
    4. Posted by Gary D Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:08 pm EDT

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    I want some of what number 1 is smoking.Must be some hi-grade stuff.
  5. jonny s
    5. Posted by jonny s Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:40 pm EDT

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    didn't the caps clinch second???
  6. Dolan Must Go!
    6. Posted by Dolan Must Go! Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:08 pm EDT

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    New York Rangers: Born October 4, 2008...Died: April 4, 2009....gonna be a long offseason...dammit...
  7. mother pucker serif
    7. Posted by mother pucker serif Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:00 pm EDT

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    @Gary D
    I was thinking the same thing. Either that or he got "accidentally" bonked on the head by Avery's stick.
  8. Adam V
    8. Posted by Adam V Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:12 pm EDT

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    @ #6
    They have a two point lead on the Devils with three games to play. That's pretty far from clinched.
  9. Hockey Nut
    9. Posted by Hockey Nut Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:39 pm EDT

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    The Rangers will NOT make the playoffs solely on Averys karma coming around to bite the Rangers.
  10. M
    10. Posted by M Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:59 pm EDT

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    The Flyers will not factor in this regarding both Florida and the rangers. Flyers will probably lose to the Panthers because we just don't play well against them, especially with a Rangers game next on the list. And the Flyers and Rangers will split. Just because they always do. Rangers fate lies against Montreal tomorrow night. Florida has two wild card games vs Caps and Thrashers. I am not sure of the history between those teams.
  11. joe h
    11. Posted by joe h Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:26 pm EDT

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    I will be doing some heavy drinking over the next week :(
  12. Ch M
    12. Posted by Ch M Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:23 pm EDT

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    -1 to Wysh for not throwing in Oilers chances are like facing Undertaker at Wrestlemania.
  13. Dynamo38
    13. Posted by Dynamo38 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:45 pm EDT

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    Caps magic number of points to clinch the 2nd seed is 5.
  14. Gordon Bombay
    14. Posted by Gordon Bombay Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:38 pm EDT

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    rangers won't make it
  15. Rob R
    15. Posted by Rob R Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:25 pm EDT

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    I guess I'll be the guy to tell Wysh that "betting on black'" is not 50/50. Hello green 0 and 00!
  16. N. Y. NIGHTMARE
    16. Posted by N. Y. NIGHTMARE Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:06 pm EDT

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    relax we'll get in, have a little faith. wysh and other NJD fanboys are praying we dont get the 7 seed
  17. Michael
    17. Posted by Michael Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:18 pm EDT

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    @ Hockey Nut
    Congratulations on making perhaps the dumbest comment ever seen in the comments section of the puck daddy blogs.
    Really - Karma, that's VERY analytical.
  18. mike b
    18. Posted by mike b Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:11 pm EDT

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    If only betting on black was equal to a 50/50 chance... dumbass. There's a green number too, "00"
  19. speedk0re
    19. Posted by speedk0re Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:35 pm EDT

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    @ 13 Vince McMahon controls the Oilers chance at the playoffs this year?
  20. NostraChronus
    20. Posted by NostraChronus Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:06 pm EDT

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    what are the odds Lundqvist won't suck in the remaining three games? Put down the calculator, it was a rhetorical question, the answer being, of course he's going to suck, that's what he does when he's not sniffing.
  21. MONKEY MAN
    21. Posted by MONKEY MAN Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:32 pm EDT

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    rangers will choke, as per usual.
  22. speedk0re
    22. Posted by speedk0re Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:35 pm EDT

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    @ 22 A Buffalo fan talking about choking?
    Pot...Kettle...Black
  23. bobydobby
    23. Posted by bobydobby Thu Sep 03, 2009 6:55 pm EDT

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    Rangers in 8 spot get the brooms ready Bruins in Fore!
  24. MONKEY MAN
    24. Posted by MONKEY MAN Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:32 pm EDT

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    yes, but the Rangers are choking at a much fancier restaurant on expensive food. I'm sure there's a 'porkage fee' just for bringing Avery in the line-up.

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