Fri Nov 06, 2009 4:50 pm EST
While waiting on hold for Verizon customer service, the mind wanders. Mine wandered to special teams in the NHL this season, and whether proficiency on the power play or the penalty kill equated to success in the standings.
For the 2009-10 season so far, these were the numbers crunched:
Top 15 teams in power-play conversion percentage: 120-77-27
Bottom 15 teams in power-play conversion percentage: 98-85-29
For the killers, it went like this:
Top 15 teams in penalty-killing conversion percentage: 121-76-17
Bottom 15 teams in penalty-killing conversion percentage: 97-86-39
It isn't exactly "BREAKING NEWS! MUST CREDIT PUCK DADDY" that teams that are really, really good on the power play and the kill win more games, on average, than teams in the lower part of the special teams rankings. There are always anomalies -- the Pittsburgh Penguins (12-4-0) are 22nd in the NHL on the power play, while the Toronto Maple Leafs (1-7-5) are second -- but it's common sense that this is going to be the trend annually.
The interesting number, at least to me, are the 39 overtime losses (hence, charity points) for the lower half of the League's penalty killers.
One theory was that these teams with lousy penalty killers are blowing leads in the final 20 minutes and then eventually losing in OT, as the momentum shifts to their opponents. Here's a comparison between the teams with the most overtime losses after leading for two periods, and the bottom 15 killers heading into tonight's games, via NHL.com:

Seven of the 12 teams that have lost in OT after leading after two periods are also among the NHL's worst penalty killers. Coincidence?!
Yeah, probably. NHL.com doesn't break down its special teams stats by the period, so it's difficult to figure out whether these teams are giving up late leads via pathetic penalty killing, or losing in OT on the dreaded 4-on-3 kill.
Again, I'm sure there are stat-heads out there that can read something into how the best killers have 24 more wins than the bottom 15, and how the bottom 15 have 22 more charity points than the top 15. (Or whether any of this trends annually.)
That is, something beyond the fact that mediocrity breeds mediocrity, and that some hockey teams that are totally deficient in some key areas are being propped up by charity points. All due respect to Marc Crawford, but his Dallas Stars are second-to-last on the kill (74.5 percent), 1-6 in overtime and yet they're eighth overall in the Western Conference. Where would they be if losses were, you know, losses?
Puck Daddy is an NHL blog edited by Greg Wyshynski. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

Chicago 7, San Jose 2 (Nov. 25)
Posted Nov 24 2009
Washington 2, Buffalo 0 (Nov. 25)
Posted Nov 24 2009
Pittsburgh 3, Montreal 1 (Nov. 25)
Posted Nov 24 2009
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14 Comments
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look when the rangers scored
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That was a glorious F-up on my part. Fixed and thanks.
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BTW, where's our Hockey 101 this week?
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However, if you're intent on a theory for what connects "below average PK" to "below average OT/SO record", isn't "below average team" a simpler one? Or "below average goaltending"?
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This can be resolved y one of two ways: either make the shootout an all or nothing affair and watch as the skills competition gimmick plays an even bigger role in determine playoff teams and seeding, OR do the sensible thing and have the game end in a tie when the teams play 65 minutes to a standstill.
Of course that's never going to happen because then the worst teams would fall out of contention quickly and fan interest would dissipate, just like it does in the other three sports, and Bettman will do anything to sell the NHL even if it destroys the integrity of the regular season.
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