Puck Daddy - NHL

While waiting on hold for Verizon customer service, the mind wanders. Mine wandered to special teams in the NHL this season, and whether proficiency on the power play or the penalty kill equated to success in the standings.

For the 2009-10 season so far, these were the numbers crunched:

Top 15 teams in power-play conversion percentage: 120-77-27

Bottom 15 teams in power-play conversion percentage: 98-85-29

For the killers, it went like this:

Top 15 teams in penalty-killing conversion percentage: 121-76-17

Bottom 15 teams in penalty-killing conversion percentage: 97-86-39

It isn't exactly "BREAKING NEWS! MUST CREDIT PUCK DADDY" that teams that are really, really good on the power play and the kill win more games, on average, than teams in the lower part of the special teams rankings. There are always anomalies -- the Pittsburgh Penguins (12-4-0) are 22nd in the NHL on the power play, while the Toronto Maple Leafs (1-7-5) are second -- but it's common sense that this is going to be the trend annually.

The interesting number, at least to me, are the 39 overtime losses (hence, charity points) for the lower half of the League's penalty killers.

One theory was that these teams with lousy penalty killers are blowing leads in the final 20 minutes and then eventually losing in OT, as the momentum shifts to their opponents. Here's a comparison between the teams with the most overtime losses after leading for two periods, and the bottom 15 killers heading into tonight's games, via NHL.com:

Seven of the 12 teams that have lost in OT after leading after two periods are also among the NHL's worst penalty killers. Coincidence?!

Yeah, probably. NHL.com doesn't break down its special teams stats by the period, so it's difficult to figure out whether these teams are giving up late leads via pathetic penalty killing, or losing in OT on the dreaded 4-on-3 kill.

Again, I'm sure there are stat-heads out there that can read something into how the best killers have 24 more wins than the bottom 15, and how the bottom 15 have 22 more charity points than the top 15. (Or whether any of this trends annually.)

That is, something beyond the fact that mediocrity breeds mediocrity, and that some hockey teams that are totally deficient in some key areas are being propped up by charity points. All due respect to Marc Crawford, but his Dallas Stars are second-to-last on the kill (74.5 percent), 1-6 in overtime and yet they're eighth overall in the Western Conference. Where would they be if losses were, you know, losses?

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14 Comments

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  1. Peter D
    1. Posted by Peter D Fri Nov 06, 2009 5:10 pm EST

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    proof: last nite NYR v. EDM
    look when the rangers scored
  2. witt77hatcher
    2. Posted by witt77hatcher Fri Nov 06, 2009 5:23 pm EST

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    After this article on Power Play Converstion Percentages, I'm pretty curious to see how Power Play Conversion Percentages affect records.
  3. HotStacey
    3. Posted by HotStacey Fri Nov 06, 2009 5:25 pm EST

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    4/6 of the first games that ended did so in OT last night. unless the loser gets ZERO points regardless of how they lose then teams will continue to play dump and chase until they get their point. this is what a cap world does. the guaranteed point doesn't put an incentive on trying to score in overtime it incentivizes trying to GET to OT. we need to go back to zero points for a loss regardless of how teams lose and then players will be all out trying to score at all times as that's the only way they can win. right now the NHL is so stifled, self-conscious and predictably boring it's like watching robots play.
  4. Wyshynski
    4. Posted by Wyshynski Fri Nov 06, 2009 5:39 pm EST

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    @ witt77hatcher
    That was a glorious F-up on my part. Fixed and thanks.
  5. Ben D
    5. Posted by Ben D Fri Nov 06, 2009 5:41 pm EST

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    Zero points for a loss - any loss - please! C'mon NHL.
    BTW, where's our Hockey 101 this week?
  6. eyebleaf
    6. Posted by eyebleaf Fri Nov 06, 2009 5:42 pm EST

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    ooooh numbers
  7. Stickler
    7. Posted by Stickler Fri Nov 06, 2009 5:53 pm EST

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    hossa deserves to be mentioned if for nothing else than... you know...
  8. Stickler
    8. Posted by Stickler Fri Nov 06, 2009 5:53 pm EST

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    hossa deserves to be mentioned if for nothing else than... you know...
  9. Matt F
    9. Posted by Matt F Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:21 pm EST

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    For starters, that big a discrepancy has got to be mostly coincidence.
    However, if you're intent on a theory for what connects "below average PK" to "below average OT/SO record", isn't "below average team" a simpler one? Or "below average goaltending"?
  10. yerry.take
    10. Posted by yerry.take Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:50 pm EST

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    7 of Montreals 8 wins have come in OT or shootout. what up with that?
  11. habs1rule
    11. Posted by habs1rule Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:20 pm EST

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    Fourteen points!!
  12. colin c
    12. Posted by colin c Fri Nov 06, 2009 8:30 pm EST

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    Ever stop and think that once upon a time there was no overtime, no shoot out, if you ended in a tie you got 1 point, so therefore the 'charity point' you so love ranting on and on about (almost like it is Ovies nutz) is actually the bonus point for winning in either of those scenerios?
  13. NostraChronus
    13. Posted by NostraChronus Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:43 am EST

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    it's hard to draw comparisons at this point in the season with the NHL's cracked-out schedule, where some teams have played almost twenty games, and others only a dozen.
  14. Andrew
    14. Posted by Andrew Sat Nov 07, 2009 9:25 pm EST

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    The reason this debate goes on is because people are constantly equivocating the expression "charity point". Here Wysh is referring to an overtime loss, but recall that he has been just as critical about awarding an extra point for a shootout winner. So basically there are TWO kinds of charity points: One for losing in overtime, and one for winning in a shootout.
    This can be resolved y one of two ways: either make the shootout an all or nothing affair and watch as the skills competition gimmick plays an even bigger role in determine playoff teams and seeding, OR do the sensible thing and have the game end in a tie when the teams play 65 minutes to a standstill.
    Of course that's never going to happen because then the worst teams would fall out of contention quickly and fan interest would dissipate, just like it does in the other three sports, and Bettman will do anything to sell the NHL even if it destroys the integrity of the regular season.

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