Super Bowl XLV odds are anyone’s guess

Peyton Manning and the Colts are 99-29 in the last eight seasons.
(Getty Images)
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV
1. Indianapolis Colts 13/2
2. San Diego Chargers 8/1
3. New England Patriots 10/1
4. New Orleans Saints 10/1
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 11/1
6. Dallas Cowboys 12/1
7. Green Bay Packers 12/1
8. Minnesota Vikings 12/1
9. Philadelphia Eagles 16/1
10. Baltimore Ravens 20/1
11. New York Giants 20/1
12. New York Jets 25/1
13. Tennessee Titans 25/1
14. Atlanta Falcons 30/1
15. Cincinnati Bengals 30/1
16. Arizona Cardinals 35/1
17. Chicago Bears 35/1
18. Houston Texans 35/1
19. Carolina Panthers 40/1
20. Miami Dolphins 45/1
21. San Francisco 49ers 45/1
22. Seattle Seahawks 45/1
23. Denver Broncos 50/1
24. Jacksonville Jaguars 50/1
25. Washington Redskins 50/1
26. Buffalo Bills 100/1
27. Cleveland Browns 100/1
28. Detroit Lions 100/1
29. Kansas City Chiefs 100/1
30. Oakland Raiders 100/1
31. St. Louis Rams 100/1
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 100/1

“Never make predictions, especially about the future.” – Casey Stengel

The 2009 season was over for less than an hour and Vegas was already putting up odds about teams going to the Super Bowl next season. I have a hard time figuring out who will go to the Super Bowl in December of the current year, let alone predicting one year in advance. (I know Matt “I love me some Texans” Bowen can do this, though – and by the way, congrats to the Bowen family on their new addition. A Texans fan for sure.)

The odds are below – before free agency begins, before the draft, before any trades or cuts or before any player movement. What I find interesting is that Vegas oddsmakers can make these kinds of predictions when everyone who is intimately involved in the NFL knows the next three months can change the power structure of the league. Or can it?

This offseason, the final eight teams will be limited in their ability to change their teams or add to their teams, so they must use the draft or trades to add the one or two players to get them over the top. Of the top 10 teams below, only New England, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia will have the ability to make any player moves they want based on operating in the uncapped year. As a result, expect their them (and their odds) to change this coming May.

Watching the Super Bowl, it’s clear that to win the big game a team must have a big thrower playing quarterback, someone who can make tough throws and run a sophisticated offense that can score points. The rules have changed so much that the NFL is a passing league, and without an effective passer, there’s very little chance the Super Bowl can be an achievable goal. The list below is formulated because of the quality of the quarterback play from each team, no matter what these teams do this offseason. When teams look over this list, their first reaction might be, “We can improve. We will be better than this once we make a few moves.” But without the quarterback in place, that kind of thinking is just hoping for success, not planning for success. This list should reinforce to every personnel man in the league, every team builder in the league, that they must fix the quarterback, first and foremost.

Proposed rule change on three-point stance

I know Commissioner Roger Goodell is going to look into whether eliminating the three-point stance will help cut back on concussions, but I’m not sure this will help. The one coaching point we were all taught when we first learned to play football was to keep our pad level down; do not play high. Most offensive linemen today play in a two-point stance in order to deal with pass rushers and not waste time setting up. In a two-point stance, players are automatically playing taller, and this works for offensive linemen, but not for defensive linemen. I would think putting them in a two-point stance might create higher pad level.

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