AccuScore: Playoff odds of teams shopping for Peyton Manning
AccuScore provides football predictions and projections by calculating the precise probability teams have of winning each game, their division and making the playoffs. Using projected lineups, football predictions are created by simulating each game of the season one play at a time, up to 10,000 to 20,000 times. Visit AccuScore for weekly updates for all football and sports predictions.
Peyton Manning’s career with the Indianapolis Colts will reportedly end Wednesday, when the Colts are schedule to address the matter at a media conference. It’s time to take a hard look at what a “healthy” Peyton Manning could do for some of the NFL’s most quarterback-needy teams. Obviously, the likes of the Giants, Patriots, Packers and Saints aren’t looking to bring in Manning, but plenty of other organizations are.
During the lead-up to the Super Bowl, Larry Fitzgerald openly admitted he was lobbying to bring Manning to Arizona, and if that happened, Arizona would go from a projected losing record to a respectable 11-5. Staying in the division, Manning’s arrival in Seattle or San Francisco also improves each of those teams considerably. The NFC West may be won by whichever team is quickest to the draw.
New York Jets players and fans have shouted their frustrations at Mark Sanchez’s lack of charisma on the field. Since Brett Favre ended up with the Jets, it’s impossible to rule out a Manning move to MetLife Stadium. Two Mannings in one city sounds like a bad buddy comedy, but Peyton would be projected to improve the Jets from 8-8 to 10-6, probably good enough for a wild-card spot.
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Staying in the AFC East, the Dolphins have been rumored to be interested despite a strong showing from Matt Moore. With Moore starting, the Dolphins are projected to have a 7-9 season, but if Manning takes his talents to South Beach, Miami would automatically be projected to win 10-plus games next season. Just like the NFC West, the AFC East could come down to which team can work out a deal and get Manning.
Manning’s health is questionable but for teams like the Cardinals, Redskins and Browns, he is probably worth the gamble as all three teams are in dire straits. Teams like the Jets, Dolphins and 49ers would probably be wise not to risk their futures on a nerve in a 35 going on 36 year-old quarterback’s neck.
Below is a breakdown of Manning’s impact on a team’s wins, losses, and odds of a division title and playoffs:
|w/ Peyton Manning||10.7||5.3||52.50%||69.80%|
|w/ Peyton Manning||10.5||5.5||26.80%||73.90%|
|w/ Peyton Manning||8.1||7.9||10.50%||25.40%|
|w/ Peyton Manning||9.7||6.3||49.90%||62.50%|
|KANSAS CITY CHIEFS||W||L||DIV%||PLAYOFF%|
|w/ Peyton Manning||8.5||7.5||14.70%||37.50%|
|w/ Peyton Manning||7.8||8.2||4.00%||22.40%|
|NEW YORK JETS||W||L||DIV%||PLAYOFF%|
|w/ Peyton Manning||10.2||5.8||24.00%||65.20%|
|SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS||W||L||DIV%||PLAYOFF%|
|w/ Peyton Manning||11.5||4.5||90.90%||93.40%|
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