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My Super Bowl XLVI Pick Against the Spread: Fan Take
Super Bowl XLVI is less than a week away. Those of you who followed my weekly column know that I was profitable with my weekly picks against the spread. Here is my final pick for the season.
The Patriots are technically the home team in the Super Bowl. But Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana will be neutral ground for both teams.
The Giants are riding a five-game winning streak. Their last two games were impressive victories at San Francisco and at Green Bay. Their defense ranked 25th during the regular season, but they have played much better in the playoffs. The credit goes to their pass rush (nine sacks in the playoffs). Giants quarterback Eli Manning has played great (eight touchdowns, one interception). The Giants are playing well and they are confident.
The Patriots come in on a ten-game winning streak. Their last loss came at the hands of these Giants, 24-20 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Their high-powered offense fired on all cylinders in their first playoff game against the Denver Broncos. Quarterback Tom Brady threw six touchdowns in that game. But against the tough defense of the Baltimore Ravens, Brady threw no touchdowns.
The Giants are more balanced than the Patriots. They have the better defense and their offense can score points. They are also the Cinderella story of these playoffs. The Giants will attack the Patriots with their downfield passing game. I expect wide receiver Victor Cruz to have a big game. The Patriots have the better offense, but their numbers have been inflated by games against bad teams. To counter the Giants' pass rush, Brady will rely on short, precision passes to Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski.
The point spread has dropped a full point in the past week. That means more people are betting that the Giants will cover or win. I'm with them. Defense wins championships. The Giants' defense is much better than the Patriots' defense. That will be the difference in this game. The Giants will make one more defensive stop than the Patriots. That will be enough to cover or even win the game.
The pick: Giants +2 1/2. Giants 27, Patriots 26.
What's your pick? Leave a comment below.
More from Edwin Torres:
Edwin Torres has been a fan of the Dallas Cowboys since the days of Tony Dorsett and Roger Staubach. As a longtime fan of the National Football League, Edwin follows many interesting games and stories each week. For more articles, follow him on Twitter @FlipPoker.
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