Why the New England Patriots Will Win the Super Bowl: Fan’s Look

I recently wrote an article that developed a modest, far-from-complete system to pick the eventual Super Bowl winner (found here). The following is how the four remaining teams hold up to this system. We'll see if if plays out. The five stats I used were points per game, points against, point differential, turnover differential, and third-down conversion percentage.

Each team was measured against the worst team to win the Super Bowl since 2002 in each category. They each get a rating out of five to determine which stats they were ahead of the curve on. Then, the second number rating is whether they are above or below the average of the Super Bowl champions since 2002 in the same five categories.

Number of Stats Higher than Worst Super Bowl Champions (2002-2010)

New England Patriots - 5/5

Baltimore Ravens - 5/5

San Francisco 49ers - 4/5 (3rd Down Conversion Percentage)

New York Giants - 3/5 (Points Against, Point Differential)

Number of Stats Higher than the Average of Super Bowl Champions (2002-2010)

New England Patriots - 4/5 (Points Against)

Baltimore Ravens - 2/5 (Points Per Game, Point Differential, Turnover Differential)

San Francisco 49ers - 3/5 (Points Per Game, 3rd Down Conversion Percentage)

New York Giants - 0/5 (Points Per Game, Points Against, Point Diff, Turnover Diff. Third Down Con.)

Adding the two numbers together, the New England Patriots end up with a 9 out of 10. The Ravens and 49ers end up with a 7 out of 10, and the Giants end with a 3 out of 10. Based on this system (which is nothing but a "for fun" system), the Super Bowl will feature the San Francisco 49ers and the New England Patriots. The Patriots will be the 2011-12 Super Bowl champions.

While I hardly think this system is anything more than some fun, random number crunching, the Patriots would be my pick anyway.

All random analysis aside, the Patriots have looked exceptionally dangerous (even for them) lately. They'll certainly have their hands full with the Baltimore Ravens during the AFC Championship. However, when I look at a coach like Bill Belichick and a quarterback like Tom Brady (with two amazing tight ends and Wes Welker), I can't pick against them —despite their defensive woes. Additionally, if their defense plays anything like it did against Denver, they'll march straight through to the Lombardi trophy.

Brian is a lifelong NFL fan, specifically of the Chicago Bears. Since the Bears are currently sitting at home, he had nothing better to do than to come up with a "for fun" system of picking a Super Bowl Winner.

Sources

Brian's Statistical System

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Updated Sunday, Jan 22, 2012