Time may be running out for struggling NFL QBs
All the praise that was lavished last year on Joe Flacco(notes) and Matt Flynn(notes)—and both players deserved it for leading their teams to the playoffs in their rookie seasons—obscured the fact that too many promising quarterbacks struggle mightily when they get to the NFL.
As Exhibits A through F, we offer Alex Smith, Jason Campbell(notes), Vince Young(notes), Matt Leinart(notes), JaMarcus Russell(notes) and Brady Quinn(notes). All six players came into the NFL within the last five years as first-round draft picks with extraordinary college resumes and lofty expectations.
Thus far, they haven't managed to lift their careers off the tarmac. Thus far, they have been busts.
Given the history of first-round quarterbacks, maybe we shouldn't be surprised.
"It's what the numbers have borne out over the last number of years," said former Ravens coach and current FOX analyst Brian Billick, inserting a plug for his book More than a Game. "I wrote that there have been 40- plus quarterbacks taken in the first round since '95. By any stretch of the imagination, 13 or 14 of them have been successful.
"We always say it's a 50-50 crapshoot when you take a quarterback in the first round. Well, it's more like 70-30. Those are the odds. These guys are probably on par with the failures of first-round quarterbacks for the last 20 to 30 years in the NFL."
Why has this recent six-pack failed to excel? The reasons range from injuries and a revolving door of coaches (Alex Smith and Jason Campbell) to mechanics issues (JaMarcus Russell) to a misguided assumption that their success in college would automatically carry over into the NFL (perhaps all of them).
"They're good players in college—really outstanding—but the transition to the NFL, unless they understand it's a huge gap to overcome, they'll struggle with it," said former NFL coach Mike Martz.
No one understands their struggles more than Rich Gannon, who, during a 17-year NFL career (1986-2004) transformed himself from a backup-journeyman to a four-time Pro Bowl player and a Super Bowl quarterback.
"It's hard to compare all of them, because they're all different," said Gannon, now an analyst on FOX. "But my guess is most of them have to learn the five 'P's' that I always say: Proper preparation prevents poor performances."
All of the blame can't be laid at the feet of the players. There have been some extenuating circumstances. Leinart got hurt and hasn't been able to beat out Kurt Warner(notes) in Arizona, Russell hasn't exactly been surrounded with a Hall of Fame cast in Oakland, and Smith and Campbell have played for multiple coaches, coordinators and systems.
"That is really disruptive to the development of a young player," Gannon said. "All the changes are hard on any quarterback. I think owners, coaches and general managers are really missing the boat there."
Here's a closer look at each of the quarterbacks and their struggles:
His strengths: Pocket presence, accuracy and decision making all have improved.
His problems: Needs to regain his swagger. Lost some confidence after injuries and hearing claims that he's a bust.
Observation: "This might be a real opportunity over the next nine weeks to see if he can develop his skills," said Billick.
Jason Campbell, Redskins (25th pick, '05)
His strengths: Athleticism. Can make all the throws. Has ability to extend plays and make first downs with legs.
His problems: Indecisive. Doesn't appear comfortable, especially when game is on the line. Not willing to take chances.
Observation: "He needs the complete Maako overhaul. Pull the frame off the body, power-coat it, everything," said Gannon.
Vince Young, Titans (3rd pick, '06)
His strengths: Has the complete package: size, vision, arm strength, athleticism.
His problems: Inability to operate and function efficiently as a pocket quarterback.
Observation: "(The Titans) are doing exactly what you need to do with Vince Young," Billick said. "They're playing to his strengths."
Matt Leinart, Cardinals (10th pick, '06)
His strengths: Has good size, can make all the throws, played in a pro-style offense in college.
His problems: Accuracy and consistency before getting hurt.
Observation: "The best thing to happen to Matt Leinart is to have Kurt Warner there," Martz said. "If Matt's smart, he'll watch everything Kurt does and listen to everything he says."
JaMarcus Russell, Raiders (1st pick, '07)
His strengths: Strong arm. Ability to pick up first downs by running—but doesn't do it enough.
His problems: Accuracy and footwork issues. Appears to lack confidence. preparation habits are questionable.
Observation: "Until he appreciates the fact that this is such a different game and approaches it with a lunch pail mentality, he'll never make it," said Martz.
Brady Quinn, Browns (22nd pick, '07)
His strengths: Competitiveness, leadership. Throws relatively well.
His problems: Is tentative and isn't always quick to recognize certain situations.
Observation: "In his defense, I don't think we've seen enough of his body of work," Gannon said.
While Leinart and Quinn remain on the bench, and Campbell and Russell continue to struggle, Smith and Young have chances to resurrect their careers the rest of this season.
After not playing in a game for almost two years (since Nov. 12, 2007), Smith regained the starting job for the 49ers when he replaced a benched Shaun Hill(notes) against Houston on Oct. 25. Young returned to the starting lineup after Tennessee's bye week and helped direct the Titans to their first victory of the season.
Both players need to seize these latest opportunities. It may be their last ones with their current teams.
Dennis Dillon is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at ddillon@sportingnews.com.
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