The Shark: Week 9 Picks Against the Spread

The Shark stops by The Trenches to offer his against-the-spread picks for Sunday's NFL card. Sometimes he offers a selection or two from Saturday's college football slate. On Monday (usually), he reviews the weekend's action, and makes his Monday night picks. The Shark advises that his column is for entertainment purposes only.

When you’ve been as bad as we have, you can ill afford to get beaten by defensive and return touchdowns. We’ve been hit with waves of losses like this, most recently, on our Jets pick last week.

The Jets were dominant against Miami, outgaining the Dolphins 378-104, and out first-downing them 23-10. However, they were victimized by two Ted Ginn kickoff returns for touchdowns, as well as a fumble recovery that was returned for six. That twist of fate turned what woulda, coulda, shoulda been a winning week into yet another week on the losing side of the ledger.

We’ll try again to turn it around this week with a trio of picks for Sunday, one each for the 1:00, 4:00 and 8:00 time slots.

Cincinnati +3 over Baltimore: The line indicates to us that the public is still not believing what they’re seeing with the Bengals. Additionally, a lot of stock is being put into the Ravens’ first win in four tries. The second loss in Baltimore’s three-game losing streak came at home to Cincinnati. Not only did the Bengals win that game, they were dominant statistically, with a 403-257 advantage in yards, a 22-12 advantage in first downs, and a 34:19-25:41advantage in time of possession. We’ll take them as a home dog on Sunday. Wager: 33 cannoli to win 30

Carolina +14 over New Orleans: We’re buying the line up from 13.5.

This year’s version of the Saints reminds us a lot of the Patriots of two years ago. New England that year was virtually unstoppable offensively, just as New Orleans appears to be this season. Inevitably, this leads to the high-powered team being overvalued from a point-spread perspective. The Pats began that season 8-0 ATS, but finished with a 2-9 ATS stretch. Let’s say that again: New England covered only twice in their last 11 games in their storied 2007 season.

We believe it’s reaching the point of overvaluation with the Saints. They failed to cover a big spread against Atlanta last week, and they were extremely fortunate to cover in Miami two weeks ago (not to belabor the point, but it was one of those bloody defensive touchdowns that enabled the Saints to cover that week).

There’s also some solid historical trends in Carolina’s favor. The Panthers have covered four of the last five against the Saints, as well as in their last five trips to New Orleans. In fact, neither coach John Fox nor QB Jake Delhomme(notes) (as a Panther, Saint or Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun Cajun) have ever lost in the Superdome. And the Panthers have won three of their last four, with their best efforts coming on the road this season. Wager: 36 cannoli to win 30

Philadelphia -3 over Dallas: Philly’s only blemishes have been an inexplicable loss in Oakland and a home loss sans Donovan McNabb(notes) to the Saints. Dallas has won three in a row, the last two at home. But the Cowboys are a nearly impossible team to back on the road. They are 1-2 ATS this year away from home, their only cover coming in Week 1 against Tampa. Last season, they were a putrid 0-3 as a road dog, and were 1-5 straight-up in their last six road games last year. Wager: 33 cannoli to win 30

Bankroll: 602 cannoli (-398 season-to-date)
Record: 17-26-2

More from Sporting News: Colts Face Texans with Hobbled Secondary