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2005 preview: Raiders

AFC West predictions

1.

San Diego

2.

Denver

3.

Oakland

4.

Kansas City

Oakland Raiders
Head coach: Norv Turner, second season
2004 record: 5-11
2004 rankings: Offense, 17th (322.1 yards/game); Defense, 30th (371.0 yards/game)
2005 strength of schedule: Second
From SportingNews.com: AFC West overview

Despite spending some free-agent dollars, the Raiders were sunk by a bad defense in 2004 – one that gave up nearly 28 points per game. In a tough AFC, Oakland's playoff hopes were dashed by the time it reached midseason at 2-6.

Big free-agent pickup Warren Sapp was a bust – especially when playing at end in the 3-4 scheme. The linebackers were nondescript, while cornerback Phillip Buchanon and safety Ray Buchanan took turns giving up big plays.

The offense wasn't much better, with Kerry Collins throwing nearly as many interceptions (20) as touchdowns (21) and the running game translating into a big flop.

OFFENSE

Collins is the West Coast version of Jake Plummer, with less mobility. As long as he's leading this unit, he'll have stretches of inconsistency, but the acquisition of wideout Randy Moss, who is the best jump-ball receiver in the league, will help.

Collins still may not break the 60-percent plateau for completions (he's only done it once in 10 seasons). Moss will catch more of his off-target passes than any receiver Collins has ever had, though. And when Moss is lined up with Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry, it may be hard for Collins to look bad.

The offensive line is a good group, and it will get better this season after rookies Robert Gallery and Jake Grove started last season. New running back LaMont Jordan should be running plenty of plays behind Gallery, who has the makings of a Pro Bowler.

While Moss is the offense's huge addition, Jordan may be the key to success. Coach Norv Turner gave up on the running game last season, and he needs Jordan to provide the balance that will keep Collins from throwing 40 passes a game.

DEFENSE

For all the good news on offense, the scales are tipped back into balance by a defense that didn't get much better in the offseason. An argument could be made that Oakland got better by ridding itself of mistake-prone players, but it would be foolish to depend on addition by subtraction.

While cornerback Charles Woodson is still a Pro Bowl-caliber player, there isn't an overwhelming amount of talent surrounding him in the secondary. Even rookie cornerbacks Fabian Washington and Stanford Routt – drafted in the first and second rounds, respectively – seem a year or two away from making an impact.

Up front, the defense would be smart to stick in a 4-3 scheme and sit Ted Washington and Warren Sapp together at the defensive tackle spots. But it appears Oakland will continue to alternate to the 3-4, where Sapp has been ineffective at end. Derrick Burgess was signed to help bolster the pass rush from the defensive end spot, but that's not likely for a player who had 2½ sacks last season.

The linebacker situation is a mess. Rookie Kirk Morrison and special teams ace Tim Johnson will battle to start in the middle, while outside linebackers Sam Williams and Travian Smith are dealing with injury issues.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The kicking game is superb, featuring the powerful legs of Sebastian Janikowski on field goals and kickoffs and Shane Lechler on punts. Oakland will need help from its speedy class of rookies as it seeks punt and kick returners. It's likely one of the cornerbacks, Fabian Washington or Routt, will handle the return game.

PREDICTION

The Raiders will finish 8-8 and third in the AFC West.