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Six Points: Late bloomers

Teams hope to find their future stars in the NFL draft, but as we have seen with this decade, first-round picks never are a sure thing.

Why is that? First of all, there's no test to determine a person's heart. You also don't know how much potential actually is left, or which stage the player is at, as far as overall development. He could be totally tapped out by the time he gets to the NFL. But every person is different – and that's what makes the NFL draft so interesting.

You actually can get a player like Terrell Davis, who didn't play a lot in college but turned out to be a phenomenal pro, as a sixth-round pick. Or you can end up with a supposedly can't-miss prospect like Ryan Leaf or Todd Marinovich who doesn't pan out. The draft is not an exact science, and it never will be.

Let's take a look at six former first-round selections who have yet to make their mark and their chances at finally living up to their pre-draft hype.

1. Joey Harrington
Wide receiver Charles Rogers has been hurt the last two years, and the Lions didn't have a running game until last season with Kevin Jones. There also have been some bad moves involving other parts of the offense, including an offensive line that's not that great.

With Steve Mariucci's West Coast system, the Detroit Lions are doing the right thing as far as trying to help Harrington succeed. I believe he still has a huge upside, so I wouldn't give up on him quite yet. Five or six years from now, the Lions don't want to be saying they should've kept him.

The 2005 season will be huge for Harrington, the No. 3 overall pick in 2002. He doesn't want the organization to lose confidence in him, but there will be a lot of internal pressure for him to do well.

2. Gerard Warren
A change of scenery will be good for Warren, the third pick in 2001. Things really never panned out for him with the Cleveland Browns, although he did show glimpses of greatness. As a coach, that can be frustrating.

I hope he's able to live up to that potential with the Denver Broncos. He just has to make up his mind about being a professional and decide whether he wants to work hard at it day in and day out. If he does do that, he probably won't be an elite player, but the results will be a lot better than his time in Cleveland.

3. Ron Dayne
I think expectations were too high for Dayne, who was a great college back at Wisconsin. Drafted 11th overall by the New York Giants in 2000, Dayne was limited to backup status partly because he played behind one of the NFL's best all-around backs in Tiki Barber.

Losing weight last season helped Dayne's acceleration, and I loved what I saw from him early in training camp. He finally understands that the NFL is a different game and that, to be successful, you have to be nifty and make people miss. In that instance, I thought he made great strides last year.

With Denver's blocking scheme – and the way running backs have excelled behind the Broncos' offensive line – Dayne has a great opportunity.

4. Travis Taylor
Taylor, the 10th selection in 2000, just has been inconsistent. Part of it could be blamed on the Baltimore Ravens' offensive system and the lack of accuracy from the quarterback. However, expectations for him with his new team, the Minnesota Vikings, are high.

The coaching there is phenomenal and the system there is phenomenal. I look for Taylor to improve in Minnesota, and I don't necessarily mean in numbers. It's a better system, even though Brian Billick, the Ravens' head coach, created it when he was the Vikings' offensive coordinator. With the players they have around him and what they can do offensively on a weekly basis, Taylor will be far more explosive than he ever was in Baltimore.

5. David Terrell
Terrell, taken eighth overall by the Chicago Bears in 2001, is in a good situation with the New England Patriots. He won't have a lot of pressure on him, and he'll be playing with the best quarterback he's ever played with in the pros in Tom Brady. He also will have at least two or three receivers who are better than him. The way the Patriots practice and the way they go about things will really help him.

It'll be time for Terrell to develop. He'll be around receivers who have had some success but also are unselfish. That's one thing he may have to work on the most: being a team guy instead of a me-first guy. If he's able to do that, he'll reach his potential. The Patriots have done pretty well resurrecting rejects from other teams.

6. Courtney Brown
Injuries have played a big role in his lack of development. The No. 1 overall pick in 2000, Brown missed a lot of time in Cleveland, and those repetitions in practice and games always are crucial to a young player's maturation. There's no substitute for live game experience.

Brown might've been great at the scouting combine in showing how big, strong and fast he is, but he's not very agile. He doesn't have the best skill in changing directions, and that has hurt him in the NFL.

I don't think being in Denver will make much difference. The Broncos are in dire need of a pass rusher, but a change of scenery won't change him a bit.