Cris Carter's early look at the upcoming season:
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AFC | NFC
As AFC teams open training camp, we must first acknowledge the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots. I would like to go with the popular theory that the champs can't repeat. But this is a team that added two very good first-round picks and revamped its running game. Its improvement cannot be ignored.
With two titles in the last three years, New England is the X-factor. If the Patriots come back with the same amount of intensity as the past couple of years, they have the edge over the rest of the league.
AFC EAST: Do the champs still have the drive?
The Patriots are the favorites based on coaching, talent and how well they play as a team. Football is the ultimate team sport, and New England has set the standard.
With two titles in the last three years, the front office and the players could have been content to rest on their laurels. Instead, they overcame offseason turmoil with Ty Law, signed running back Corey Dillon and had a good draft.
Now if they return this season with the same amount of drive and intensity, they are the team to beat.
The big question for the Buffalo Bills is whether Drew Bledsoe can bounce back. Much of that depends on whether the offensive line – now without leader Ruben Brown – can protect him. Bledsoe definitely needs some time to throw the football.
With new coach Mike Mularkey, don't be surprised if Buffalo runs the ball more this season. The combination of Travis Henry and Willis McGahee at tailback could be an effective 1-2 punch, especially if McGahee can return to his college form.
All of a sudden, the Miami Dolphins have huge problems with the retirement of Ricky Williams. Chris Foerster is a new offensive coordinator and is now without his No. 1 weapon on offense. Throw in an average offensive line with some question marks, and the Dolphins are going to be a mediocre football team.
Miami's big offseason acquisition was A.J. Feeley, and so far Jay Fiedler has outplayed him in workouts. Head coach Dave Wannstedt already was under huge pressure to win. If it doesn't happen this year, folks think it will be his last year.
The New York Jets again will be at the bottom of this tough division. They made a good move acquiring Justin McCareins, who will be another weapon for quarterback Chad
Pennington to throw to. But they didn't improve as much as Buffalo, and their defense remains a big question mark.
AFC NORTH: The Ravens have that look
The Baltimore Ravens have a great identity – they boast a strong defense and can run the football. And with this identity comes a bravado that I really like. Their offseason additions, especially Dale Carter and their draft picks only add to this.
The only question mark is Kyle Boller. Can he build on his success early last season? And the disappointment of not getting Terrell Owens during the offseason will hurt them. They would have been my AFC favorite with Owens, but Baltimore still has enough firepower with Jamal Lewis running and Boller using play-action passes and making plays with his feet.
For the Cincinnati Bengals, everything is hanging on new quarterback Carson Palmer. In his first year as a starter, can he duplicate the kind of season Jon Kitna had in 2003?. But the Bengals as a team should be better after acquiring strength and stability on both sides of the ball.
The Bengals made three good additions in the offseason – Deltha O'Neal, Patrick Johnson and Kim Herring. This group of veterans will be a great complement to a young team.
Marvin Lewis changed the team's attitude last year and has its attention. And now that he is a proven winner, he can expand on his ideas. From what I hear, his players would run through a wall for him.
The Pittsburgh Steelers still have a good nucleus and great receivers who are capable of big downfield plays. That has become their identity over the last several years – a total departure from the past. Tommy Maddox should be able to bounce back because of the talent of Plaxico Burress and Hines Ward.
But on defense, the Steelers need to defend the pass better. Do they realize the forward pass is a legal play? If they can't improve their pass D, it could be another long year.
The Cleveland Browns are tough to figure out. They upgraded at quarterback – at least in terms of completion percentage – but they now are reduced to a one-dimensional passing game. Jeff Garcia doesn't have the arm to get it down the field, and the rest of the NFL is beginning to figure out how to defend the short passing game.
Cleveland should be excited about new tight end Kellen Winslow. He is one of the most outstanding athletes to come into the NFL in a long time, regardless of position. We would be ranting and raving about his athleticism if he didn't play tight end. He is a phenomenal athlete with a phenomenal attitude about playing the game.
AFC SOUTH: Manning's arm tops the best division in football
The Indianapolis Colts were in a tough position this offseason, but they did a lot with limited room under the cap. They lost a couple of key players – most notably Marcus Robinson – but put their confidence in Peyton Manning and kept the free-agency losses to a minimum.
The Colts may not be able to duplicate their run of last year, but Manning and the high-powered offense should be able to return to the top of the AFC South.
The Tennessee Titans, who have gotten older over the past couple of years, made some good moves during to get younger. Longtime Titan Eddie George is gone, but Tennessee should be able to match his production with young Chris Brown and veteran Antowain Smith.
Steve McNair is one of the top three quarterbacks in the NFL, and he should get the Titans nine or 10 wins if he stays healthy. If he does, Tennessee has a good chance to challenge the Colts for the top spot.
The Jacksonville Jaguars remind me of the Carolina Panthers, a team that emerged from the middle of the pack last season to surprise many squads. Jack Del Rio has his team believing in him in his second year. He is a fiery coach, and the young team feeds off his energy.
Byron Leftwich is the key. Any successful franchise needs a quarterback who can pull the trigger. Leftwich has great size and is very smart and talented. With some experience under his belt, Leftwich should reach his potential. It wouldn't surprise me if Leftwich were in the Pro Bowl this season.
The Houston Texans have gotten better, but they have the misfortune of playing in possibly the best division in football. They are building a solid team around David Carr. Coach Dom Capers and the organization are moving in the right direction, and the team has the full support of the city of Houston. But they are not ready to move into the second or third position.
AFC WEST: New commitment to 'D' in Kansas City
The Kansas City Chiefs are the team to beat after addressing their defense in the offseason. Everything comes from the top, and Kansas City made a good move by bringing back defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham. I used to play against his defenses in my day. He doesn't have the same talent in this group as he did then, but he will get creative and develop a system to utilize the talent he now has.
The Chiefs won't have the league's best defense, but they don't need it. It's easier to call defenses when you can count on 24 to 27 points per game from your potent offense.
The Denver Broncos seem to be making a big push for this to be their year. In a busy offseason, Denver added Champ Bailey, who may be the best cornerback in the NFL. Key veterans John Lynch, Marco Coleman, Luther Elliss and Garrison Hearst also joined the Broncos. Denver now has great leaders who know the team concept and realize that everyone is there to win.
Kansas City shouldn't look over its shoulder because Denver is closing in.
The Oakland Raiders have improved, but they look like a .500 team. After such a tough season last year, Oakland has too far to climb to pass Kansas City or Denver. New coach Norv Turner will struggle without a dominant running game. He loves mixing the run with a play-action passing game.
Defensively the Raiders are much better with the additions of Warren Sapp and Ted Washington to the middle. The Raiders could have nine high school players along with those two guys and have more success.
There has been a lot of talk about an impending quarterback controversy. If Rich Gannon is healthy, he will be the starter for Oakland. He is the more accurate passer and has better leadership skills. People don't realize that Gannon has a strong arm because he has been stuck in short-passing offenses. That strong arm and his intangibles give him the edge over Kerry Collins.
The San Diego Chargers made good offensive moves but aren't much better. Philip Rivers may end up being a better pro than Eli Manning. Rivers impresses me as a very mature player who takes the team on his back and commands the attention of everyone on the field. San Diego has been missing that.
Star tailback LaDainian Tomlinson finally has some help with Rivers' arrival, and the future seems solid. But San Diego still needs a big-play receiver.
Defense will be the Chargers' big problem. San Diego's defense needs to be in the top 10 to take the pressure off a young offense. The Chargers ranked second-to-last in points allowed last year, and they are in real trouble if they repeat that performance.
Cris Carter is Yahoo! Sports' NFL analyst. Send Cris a question or comment for potential use in a future column or webcast.
Updated on Wednesday, Jul 28, 2004 1:07 pm, EDT
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