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Shutdown Corner

Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:00 am EDT

The absurdly premature playoff picture: Week 6

By MJD

AFC First-Round Byes:
Indianapolis Colts
Denver Broncos

Other AFC Divisional Champions:
Pittsburgh Steelers
New England Patriots

AFC Wild Cards:
Cincinnati Bengals
Houston Texans

NFC First-Round Byes:
New Orleans Saints
Minnesota Vikings

Other NFC Divisional Champions:
New York Giants
San Francisco 49ers

NFC Wild Cards:
Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers

See last week's absurdly premature playoff picture here.

• The top two spots in the AFC remain the same; even solidified. It doesn't seem like anyone else wants it.

• The NFC has a change among the first-round byes, though, as the Giants drop out in favor of the Vikings. I'm not dropping the Giants because they lost to the Saints -- I'm dropping them because they didn't compete against the Saints. I believe they can compete, and I'm 100% in support of a rematch sometime in late January, but what happened on Sunday was a flat-out beating. And it made Richard Seymour very happy.

• When I started this thing, I had the Bengals winning the AFC North and the Steelers as the Wild Card. That probably makes more sense, since they're tied with 4-2 records, and the Bengals won the head-to-head game, but as you can see, I flipped them. I just can't ignore that the Steelers have more going for them. They're allowing 74.5 rushing yards per game, and their quarterback seems unstoppable right now. It's extremely close, but ... sorry, Bengals. My head says Steelers, and is quite adamant about it.

• We've got a new face among the AFC Wild Cards: the Houston Texans! Yay! Welcome Texans!

• Here's why: There's a group three-loss teams who can make the argument for inclusion. The Jets, Ravens, Jags, Texans, and even the Dolphins are in play. It was the Jets last week, but it can't be them this week, because they just lost to Buffalo, for Fouts's sake. The Ravens have lost their last three, so they're out. The Jags' last two wins have come against Tennessee and St. Louis, with a 41-0 loss to Seattle in between, so I'm far from sold on them. Miami is still too ... I dunno, Henne-ish? So I'm going to go with the Texans, who seem to be trending upward, and have a quarterback playing some of the best ball in the league.

• Two new faces in the NFC, too: the Falcons and the Packers. The Falcons had a playoff game to get into the Absurdly Premature Playoff Picture against the Bears, and they won that, so they're in. It was still close between Green Bay and Chicago, but again, I'll ride with the quarterback I like better. In this case, it's Aaron Rodgers(notes).

• I should note, though, that I still think Philadelphia, when playing with some semblance of motivation, is better than either of those two teams. I won't reward them for losing to the Raiders, though. That should count as two losses in the standings. And if they lose to Washington on Monday night, that should count as four. With automatic elimination from the playoffs.

Related: Playoff Picture

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140 Comments

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  1. JASONM
    1. Posted by JASONM Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:22 am EDT

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    These things are so pointless pre week 12
  2. sombaki
    2. Posted by sombaki Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:25 am EDT

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    I'm looking forward to a Vikings-Saints matchup in January, to find out which team really is better. A Vikings-Broncos matchup in February would also be intriguing.
  3. slapnuts
    3. Posted by slapnuts Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:41 am EDT

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    go vikings
  4. DAMAGE Inc.
    4. Posted by DAMAGE Inc. Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:45 am EDT

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    GOD........ I hate the premature playoff picture!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Why can't you start after Wk 8?
  5. vc
    5. Posted by vc Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:51 am EDT

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    Ha, MJD. You never cease to make me laugh with your commentary. Well done.
  6. Scott W
    6. Posted by Scott W Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:53 am EDT

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    @ DAMAGE Inc. If you don't like it don't read it, and really don't comment on it. As for me, I love these. It's great, and fun to see how much each game in the NFL season can change the way the playoff picture works.
  7. swanson_71
    7. Posted by swanson_71 Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:54 am EDT

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    When you said I'm gonna go with the QB I like better I knew right then before I finished reading it would be Rodgers...and yes we understand why you don't like Cutler!
  8. Sugar Daddy
    8. Posted by Sugar Daddy Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:59 am EDT

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    Ravens will come back and at least get a wild card.......Ray Ray and Ed Reed won't let them go down without a huge fight. They keep losing in the last minute so they need to learn to be a better close-game team and the defense will get somewhat better. I'm glad to see the Texans in there though haha
  9. troyboy
    9. Posted by troyboy Thu Oct 22, 2009 10:23 am EDT

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    the packers , really..... why ? what have they done to climb back onto the list? bringing back mark tauscher and ah- man green? give me a break they beat the lions, everyone does that, except the red skins, and well enough said.
  10. sabertooth
    10. Posted by sabertooth Thu Oct 22, 2009 10:27 am EDT

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    I agree with you scott w. if a person hates this why even click on it and read it. nobody makes you do it so they must like it but dont want to admit it. As for me it is another fun thing to read and see what people are thinking. So if you dont like it get out of here and dont come back. GEAUX SAINTS!!!!
  11. ScottA
    11. Posted by ScottA Thu Oct 22, 2009 10:30 am EDT

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    I got a good laugh out of the Bengals superbowl victory. That's funnier than all my comics today! Bottom line, the Bungles are anemic losers that don't know how to many marks in the "W" column.
  12. ScottA
    12. Posted by ScottA Thu Oct 22, 2009 10:32 am EDT

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    Nevermind, I misunderstood the logo coloring on the Superbowl number to mean it was a Bungles victory prediction. Still, the Bungles won't make the playoffs even.
  13. David
    13. Posted by David Thu Oct 22, 2009 10:43 am EDT

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    hey Scott, you're a douche! Steelers are a decent team, but we still beat you head to head week 3. Stop worrying about the "Bungles" and start worrying about #43s health and how your QB has to throw for 300+ a game to barely beat Detroit. Sucka.
  14. Thomas R.R
    14. Posted by Thomas R.R Thu Oct 22, 2009 10:48 am EDT

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    Scott, those appear to be Broncos colors.
  15. Ryval
    15. Posted by Ryval Thu Oct 22, 2009 10:49 am EDT

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    To the vikes fans who are all excited about this: as a life long Packer fan - Beware Favre in January..... Even in their Superbowl runs, the Pack won at least one playoff game DESPITE Favre, but lost numerous Because of Favre. Just fair warning, not a bash....
    Enjoy.
  16. Barney the Purple Dinosaur
    16. Posted by Barney the Purple Dinosaur Thu Oct 22, 2009 10:51 am EDT

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    So...Denver has slipped out of the disbelief group into the not-worthy-of-discussion group (like Indy).
    I guess that's progress.
  17. Tanner
    17. Posted by Tanner Thu Oct 22, 2009 10:52 am EDT

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    I cant wait till the Vikes are 7-0 and the Steeler fans can feel what its like to get hit in the mouth.
  18. Nick D.
    18. Posted by Nick D. Thu Oct 22, 2009 11:02 am EDT

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    Pittsburgh is going to be a force in the playoffs. They look better every week. I look forward to reading The Absurdly Premature Playoff Picture every week. MJD's articles are always insightful and entertaining. It's too bad MJD doesn't go an delete the posts of people like JASONM and Damage Inc.
  19. Phil M
    19. Posted by Phil M Thu Oct 22, 2009 11:12 am EDT

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    Its called the "abusrdly premature playoff picture" meaing "I know its ridiculous"
    If you still click on it and say to yourself "its too early in the season for this" then YOU need to look in the mirror and ask yourself "why did I click on something I knew was absurd and then make a comment detailing the absurdity"
    You're a dumbass, that's why. Hope this helps.
    MJD, keep it. Don't let the mouth-breathers get you down...
  20. GMizzle
    20. Posted by GMizzle Thu Oct 22, 2009 11:13 am EDT

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    Go Vikes ! ! !
    }:^D
  21. me
    21. Posted by me Thu Oct 22, 2009 11:23 am EDT

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    As a Bronco fan, I am still waiting for the other shoe to drop... but thanks to this week's bye, at least they will be undefeated again next week. But I have become more optimistic... 9-7 prediction (possible 10-6 : up from 8-8) Wins: at Wash, SD (?), Oak, KC
    (Just waiting for Orton's near miss INT's to become game changing INT's and the other teams' OFF coordinators to figure out the Den DEF)
  22. atvman
    22. Posted by atvman Thu Oct 22, 2009 11:33 am EDT

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    For the most part, I like this list.
    In the NFC, I still think Philly is a powerhouse and can make the playoffs, but they need to stop having a horrible game once every month. I think I would put Philly over Green Bay and Chicago.
    In the AFC, I really like the Ravens and they are just two plays (missed FG in Min and Clayton's drop) short of being 5-1 and in command of their division. Out of every 3-3 team in the league, they are probably the toughest, I still think they can win 10 games this year.
  23. HELLO
    23. Posted by HELLO Thu Oct 22, 2009 11:33 am EDT

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    This is closer to what I would say than previous lists.
    Saints and Vikes in the NFC: Most definitly one of the two will play in the Superbowl. I like both teams and both stories.
    Pats, Denver, Pitts, and Indy in the AFC.
    I really think that it is between Pitts and Indy. Denver and the Pats are playing hot but not hot enough in the end will kill them in the playoffs.
    I the Pats play hot they can beat anyone in the playoffs because of grit and experience. I hate the team but they are good. If the Pats do not get hot in the end then Pittsburgh will beat Indy in the Semi and kill Denver in the Title Game.
    All boils down to matchups. Pitts last playoff game in Denver was a total beat down by them. Should see no difference here.
    Finally, what is wrong with the Bears??? Orton and Benson both leave and become major Studs? Tells me that the organization has internal and leadership issues. I can see 1 complete 180 but 2 makes me skeptical of what they are doing up there.
  24. cfields
    24. Posted by cfields Thu Oct 22, 2009 11:36 am EDT

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    What you left out my Browns!!!!!! They will make a remarkable turn you will see!!!!!!! heavy sarcasm.......... But really you think the Texans over the chargers????
  25. troyboy
    25. Posted by troyboy Thu Oct 22, 2009 11:36 am EDT

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    post #15 Ryval, how many playoff games have the packers won, with out him? answer.......none. you have to make the playoffs first. admit it you miss him, cause you love him
    . Rodge's Say's and does all the right things off the field, but that's has not translated too wining on the field. how long will that love affair last?

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