Wed May 14, 2008 12:16 pm EDT
Vegas Watch posted these over/under numbers on wins in the upcoming season, via Sportsbook.com. There's some interesting stuff in here for the enterprising folks among you who feel confident about projecting NFL win totals in mid-May.

If you're not gambling inclined (unlike my friend Crazy Fish Guy), let's take a second and understand what we're looking at here. The over/under, the number in the column immediately to the right of the team name, represents the number of wins for that team in the coming season. For example, Oakland's over/under is six. If you think they'll win more than six games, you bet the over. If you think you'll win less, you bet the under.
Then you've got the Over and Under numbers to the right of those, which
complicate things a touch. If the number is a negative, using Oakland as an
example again, to bet their over, you're betting -170. That means you have to
bet $170 to win $100, which, obviously, is not in your favor.
If the number's a positive, that's how much you'll win if you're right and you
bet $100. With Oakland again, if you think they're winning under six games, and
you bet $100, and you're right, you win $140. That's good news for you. The difference
between the -170 and the +140 represents how Vegas is going to take your money, which they will then use to build a newer, brighter, shinier way to take more of your money.
Some of these lines seem demented clown-insane to me, but then again, if I could somehow look into the future and get the standings for the end of this upcoming season, I'd probably look at them and say, "Nope. There's no freakin' way." There will be at least a handful of teams that defy expectation, in a good way or in a bad way.
That said, it's hard to envision anyone thinking it's a good idea to risk $180 to win $100 on Buffalo winning eight or more games. I'd say the same of Arizona at -140.
On the other side of the coin, I like Atlanta coming in at four wins or less at $130. They'll be playing either a rookie quarterback or a bad veteran quarterback, with an unproven starting running back, no Alge Crumpler and no DeAngelo Hall, and they're going to improve? Losing Bobby Petrino was a good thing, but I don't know if it was that good.
What about you? Where's your money going?
Shutdown Corner is an NFL blog edited by Matthew J. Darnell. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

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9 Comments
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I also think I'd go under with New Orleans. I think that 2006 was a fluke year for them, and the 2008 team will resemble last years team more than it will resemble the 2006 squad.
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Aaron Rodgers by default is still the best QB in the NFC North and the Packers play Minnesota, Chicago, and Detroit twice along with the NFC South (where Carolina/Atlanta are easy wins).
Free money.
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add up the over/unders you get 252
But there are 256 games. So unless you can convince me there will be 4 ties this season. I'll take the over.
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I take New England over 12. I don't see them losing 4 games or more this year.
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I'll take the under on the Bengals as well. The AFC North schedule is brutal, and I don't think they've really gotten any better this offseason.
Do we know how parlays pay out on this? I've always preferred small bets with fat payouts.
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