Shutdown Corner - NFL

Vegas Watch posted these over/under numbers on wins in the upcoming season, via Sportsbook.com. There's some interesting stuff in here for the enterprising folks among you who feel confident about projecting NFL win totals in mid-May.

If you're not gambling inclined (unlike my friend Crazy Fish Guy), let's take a second and understand what we're looking at here. The over/under, the number in the column immediately to the right of the team name, represents the number of wins for that team in the coming season. For example, Oakland's over/under is six. If you think they'll win more than six games, you bet the over. If you think you'll win less, you bet the under.

Then you've got the Over and Under numbers to the right of those, which complicate things a touch. If the number is a negative, using Oakland as an example again, to bet their over, you're betting -170. That means you have to bet $170 to win $100, which, obviously, is not in your favor.

If the number's a positive, that's how much you'll win if you're right and you bet $100. With Oakland again, if you think they're winning under six games, and you bet $100, and you're right, you win $140. That's good news for you. The difference between the -170 and the +140 represents how Vegas is going to take your money, which they will then use to build a newer, brighter, shinier way to take more of your money.

Some of these lines seem demented clown-insane to me, but then again, if I could somehow look into the future and get the standings for the end of this upcoming season, I'd probably look at them and say, "Nope. There's no freakin' way." There will be at least a handful of teams that defy expectation, in a good way or in a bad way.

That said, it's hard to envision anyone thinking it's a good idea to risk $180 to win $100 on Buffalo winning eight or more games. I'd say the same of Arizona at -140.

On the other side of the coin, I like Atlanta coming in at four wins or less at $130. They'll be playing either a rookie quarterback or a bad veteran quarterback, with an unproven starting running back, no Alge Crumpler and no DeAngelo Hall, and they're going to improve? Losing Bobby Petrino was a good thing, but I don't know if it was that good.

What about you? Where's your money going?

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9 Comments

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  1. Paul S
    1. Posted by Paul S Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:20 pm EDT

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    Given how strong the NFC East is, I'd take Dallas and go under the 10.5. 10-6 is a lot more likely than 11-5
  2. Paul S
    2. Posted by Paul S Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:20 pm EDT

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    I'd also be shocked if Philly wins 9 games. I'm taking the under there in a division where they should be the weakest team.
    I also think I'd go under with New Orleans. I think that 2006 was a fluke year for them, and the 2008 team will resemble last years team more than it will resemble the 2006 squad.
  3. Matt
    3. Posted by Matt Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:18 pm EDT

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    Green Bay - over 8.5
    Aaron Rodgers by default is still the best QB in the NFC North and the Packers play Minnesota, Chicago, and Detroit twice along with the NFC South (where Carolina/Atlanta are easy wins).
    Free money.
  4. Matt
    4. Posted by Matt Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:18 pm EDT

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    Also, I agree with the Atlanta under sentiment, and possibly Oakland under as well.
  5. FairlyHonestBob
    5. Posted by FairlyHonestBob Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:28 pm EDT

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    Some of those win predictions look pretty accurate, but most of my betting money will probably go in my gas tank. I'll just stick with the chump change sports ticket we have here in Oregon.
  6. Cork G
    6. Posted by Cork G Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:29 pm EDT

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    Can I take the over on the entire league?
    add up the over/unders you get 252
    But there are 256 games. So unless you can convince me there will be 4 ties this season. I'll take the over.
  7. Jiawei L
    7. Posted by Jiawei L Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:34 pm EDT

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    But you lose more money because of the betting system.
    I take New England over 12. I don't see them losing 4 games or more this year.
  8. Permanent4
    8. Posted by Permanent4 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:38 pm EDT

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    I like the over on Jacksonville. They won 11 last year, and as long as they avoid major injuries, they can do that again.
    I'll take the under on the Bengals as well. The AFC North schedule is brutal, and I don't think they've really gotten any better this offseason.
    Do we know how parlays pay out on this? I've always preferred small bets with fat payouts.
  9. Michael B
    9. Posted by Michael B Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:28 pm EDT

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    it's funny that you would use buffalo as your example. -180 are terrible odds, but they won 7 games last year with a rookie qb/rb and half their team on injured reserve and a tough schedule. now everyone on that team is more experienced and healthy, they upgraded the d-line (stroud), linebacker (mitchell), secondary (mckelvin), and wr (hardy). on top of all that, they play the nfc and afc west, plus the dolphins and jets twice. i'd be surprised if they didn't win 8.

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