Shutdown Corner - NFL

Given the amount of preposterous prop bets that exist for events like the Super Bowl, it shouldn't be surprising that there are already lines out for the Week 1 slate in the NFL. You can bet on anything in the NFL, so why not on games that won't take place for four months? 

What's more amazing than the fact these lines exist is how normal the actual point spreads look. You'd figure there would be some crazy, unpredictable spreads in there, but of the 16 games on the Week 1 schedule, 14 of the spreads could have been set last December.

In predicting all of the lines, I only missed by more than two points on two of the games. The "safe" spreads should discourage anyone from thinking they can find a sucker line here. But if you're betting on games that won't happen for 120 days, then you, my friend, are the sucker.

Five of the most interesting lines: 

Denver Broncos (pick'em) at Cincinnati Bengals -- I believe the fine gentlemen in the desert are besmirching your name, Kyle Orton(notes).

Chicago Bears (+3) at Green Bay Packers -- Yours too, Jay Cutler(notes).

Buffalo Bills (+10) at New England Patriots -- Looks like the oddsmakers have little doubt about how Tom Brady(notes) will recover from his knee injury. Nor are they sold on Terrell Owens(notes) becoming a savior in Buffalo (except to popcorn manufacturers).

New York Jets (+4) at Houston Texans -- This is the game on which I whiffed badly. I had the Jets as two-point favorites, but it makes sense that they'd be four-point dogs with either a rookie QB (Mark Sanchez(notes)) or a bad mediocre QB (Kellen Clemens(notes)) likely starting under center.

San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) at Arizona Cardinals -- This line, along with the Cards over/under win total being set at nine, suggests that Vegas (correctly) believes that Arizona's January playoff run was more of a decent team hitting its stride at the right time instead of a great team doing the same. That, or Vegas held Clancy Pendergast in really, really high regard.

Over the lines is Shutdown Corner's occasional glimpse at NFL point spreads.

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37 Comments

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  1. nvandy89
    1. Posted by nvandy89 Wed May 06, 2009 4:17 pm EDT

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    Why do you draw that conclusion from the Cards' line? They usually play close against the Niners.
  2. CWD
    2. Posted by CWD Wed May 06, 2009 4:19 pm EDT

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    being that no one has even taken a presean snap, i'd have to say it is way to early to try and give a point spread.
  3. SPECIAL K
    3. Posted by SPECIAL K Wed May 06, 2009 4:25 pm EDT

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    Go niners!!!!
  4. laduke1969
    4. Posted by laduke1969 Wed May 06, 2009 4:34 pm EDT

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    Are You Kidding the Bills getting 10 points against Tom Brady who is coming off a knee injury and is one Marcus Stroud hit away from being Mr Mom for the rest of his life. I Love it!!!!! Take the ten points and a bag of popcorn for TO and run with it.
  5. Jay
    5. Posted by Jay Wed May 06, 2009 4:52 pm EDT

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    I would give 24 against the Bills, they are terrible. B.O. will make Trent Edwards cry on the sidelines with his first temper tantrum by halftime.
  6. Irish Bastard
    6. Posted by Irish Bastard Wed May 06, 2009 5:06 pm EDT

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    Its just plain dumb ....................spead on pre- season games .
    Denver over Bungals by 9. (each of Denver ( 12+) RBs get to play)
    GB over Bears by 6.
    Bills over the Pats by 3 ( if Bellidick doesnt have pre-season film)
    Jets over Texans by 7.
    Cards over the 49ers by 10.
    point speads during pre-season PFFFFT.......Where do I go to place a bet ...lol
  7. Woody M
    7. Posted by Woody M Wed May 06, 2009 5:06 pm EDT

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    The packers only giving 3 points????? where do i place my bet and give the 3 points & take the packers!!!!!! i'm all in on this line!!!!!! i can retire when i win this bet!!!!!!
  8. Woody M
    8. Posted by Woody M Wed May 06, 2009 5:08 pm EDT

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    The packers only giving 3 points????? at home in lambeau field to boot???? where do i place my bet and give the 3 points & take the packers!!!!!! i'm all in on this line!!!!!! i can retire when i win this bet!!!!!!
  9. James N
    9. Posted by James N Wed May 06, 2009 5:11 pm EDT

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    Your comments about the Jets-Texans' game shows how little you know about football. The Texans are a team on the come and the Jets are in disarray (even if Brett Favre were still the quarterback). In addition, the Texans were a better team by the end of the season anyway. Houston will win this game by double-digits, easily.
  10. Buck
    10. Posted by Buck Wed May 06, 2009 5:17 pm EDT

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    The Packers will lose that game. They are facing a team with a superior defense and a superior quarterback.
  11. JJO
    11. Posted by JJO Wed May 06, 2009 5:30 pm EDT

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    Keep sleeping on Houston and Cincinnati.
  12. OneShoT
    12. Posted by OneShoT Wed May 06, 2009 5:59 pm EDT

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    OK I will, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!!!!!!!!!!
  13. bobs_your_uncle_lah
    13. Posted by bobs_your_uncle_lah Wed May 06, 2009 7:07 pm EDT

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    Vegas does not care who will win or lose... they are only concerned on what number will bring in the most amount of money for both sides. For example: the Bill v NE game: They assume that the pats fans will be overconfident while the bills fans assuming that it will be a closer game. If they go up to 12 or 13 then they would not get the Buffalo fan's money where if they go down to 5 or 6 then they would not get the pats money.
    They are playing our perception of the outcome vs their ability to make money.
  14. Sean D
    14. Posted by Sean D Wed May 06, 2009 7:35 pm EDT

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    Sportsbook.com is a good betting website. Niners in'09!!!
  15. james
    15. Posted by james Wed May 06, 2009 7:40 pm EDT

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    your smoking texan crack ,please are you willing to take double digits to vegas , the only d digits they'll get well be a first down maybe must be another patriots fan
  16. james
    16. Posted by james Wed May 06, 2009 7:46 pm EDT

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    james n your in disarray,jets choked because brett to old we were 8-3 before that , that means your first in line for a whooping,they or any other team will be able to stop greene .
  17. msklimps
    17. Posted by msklimps Wed May 06, 2009 8:14 pm EDT

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    Did they already yank those lines down? They're all OFF for me.
  18. TIBETAN SOCCER TEAM
    18. Posted by TIBETAN SOCCER TEAM Wed May 06, 2009 9:52 pm EDT

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    ....hey chase, kind of early uh...your poor girl..i mean your poor boyfriend...your dumb
  19. YGM
    19. Posted by YGM Wed May 06, 2009 10:27 pm EDT

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    Pats will win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  20. daniel c
    20. Posted by daniel c Wed May 06, 2009 11:12 pm EDT

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    The broncos will win the division this year . And yes you did here first hand.
  21. Paul G
    21. Posted by Paul G Wed May 06, 2009 11:34 pm EDT

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    This is funnier than mock drafts 3 months before the draft!
  22. Tony
    22. Posted by Tony Thu May 07, 2009 2:20 am EDT

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    Packers giving -3 ??? To the Bears with Jay Cutler? Hey Pack fan, that ain't won't be an injured Kyle Orton limping around this time. We whipped your ass in GB on opening day 2006, and Lovie Smith is 6-2 against you. Oh, and don't forget, we had a better record last year than you. Forgettaboutittt.
  23. Tony
    23. Posted by Tony Thu May 07, 2009 2:26 am EDT

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    To Woody #8 above: you're the one who is going to need points. GB hasn't been the same since Favre left. And you know it. Bears 26 Pack 13. Make sure your bus ticket to Vegas is pre-paid, round trip.
  24. lj
    24. Posted by lj Thu May 07, 2009 2:33 am EDT

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    not only will the cards cover that spread its going to be a blowout, they could give them 12 1/2. the cards got robbed in the superbowl, boldins not getting traded and if he wants a decent contract from any team he is going to play lights out this year, they still have warner, ohh yeah lets not forget #11, the only thing they lost in the off season was a loudmouthed offensive coach and an over rated defensive coach. not only will the cards win more than the over under of 9 wins, they have a great chance of being the only nfc team to repeat as nfc champs in the last 9 yrs.
  25. Jester
    25. Posted by Jester Thu May 07, 2009 2:48 am EDT

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    i like big butts and i can not lie.

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