Shutdown Corner - NFL

Having a new quarterback in town often brings with it an irrational exuberance from a team's fanbase. I remember thinking, nay, knowing that Danny Wuerffel rejoining Steve Spurrier in Washington was going to lead to a return to glory for the Redskins. (And I'm usually a pessimist when it comes to such things.) So it's natural for fans of teams with a new QB to have high hopes for the season. But, this year, it's not just fans that are counting on those teams to make big improvements. 

The three teams that have made (or will make) the highest-profile quarterback additions have had their odds to win their respective conference championships shorten considerably in the past six months.

Almost every team sees its odds improve as the off-season progresses (particularly those with the longest odds -- Detroit went from 75/1 to 28/1), but the teams that have made the biggest jumps are the ones that have made the biggest splash at QB.

In a special off-season edition of Over the Lines, we look at the shifting odds for those three teams. (All odds courtesy the MGM Mirage Race & Sports Book):

Chicago Bears -- 15/1 to 3/1 -- The favorite to win the NFC isn't Philadelphia (4/1) or the Giants (21/5) or Dallas (9/2). Nope, that distinction belongs to Jay Cutler(notes) and the Chicago Bears. After the Super Bowl, Chicago had the same odds to win the NFC in the 2009-2010 season as the Washington Redskins (15/1). Now, they're considered more likely to win the NFC than Pittsburgh (7/2) is to win the AFC. Those are some lofty expectations for a quarterback who has never finished over .500 in his career.

New York Jets -- 15/1 to 6/1 -- To be fair, the Jets have made more additions than just Mark Sanchez(notes). But it's the presence of Sanchez that is compelling bettors to put money on New York's AFC team. People seem to be confident that the stellar rookie campaigns from Matt Ryan(notes) and Joe Flacco(notes) last year were the rule, not the exceptions. History suggests it's the other way around.

Minnesota Vikings -- 11/1 to 4/1 -- Brett Favre(notes) hasn't even signed with the Vikings yet, but that hasn't stopped those in Vegas from installing Minnesota as a bigger favorite to win the NFC than the New York Giants (21/5). If you ever wonder how the house always wins, consider the fact that people are wagering on Favre to win a conference title.

Bonus: Denver Broncos -- 18/1 to 12/1 -- Lest you think that these odds have anything to do with reality, consider the fact that Denver's odds have improved despite the firing of Mike Shanahan and the fact that Kyle Orton(notes) will be starting at quarterback. 

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  1. Mingle
    1. Posted by Mingle Tue Jul 14, 2009 7:29 pm EDT

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    4 to one please
  2. Da Bear
    2. Posted by Da Bear Tue Jul 14, 2009 7:40 pm EDT

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    Bears will win the superbowl! 2nd btw!
  3. Mike
    3. Posted by Mike Tue Jul 14, 2009 7:43 pm EDT

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    Bears at 3-1 to win the NFC??? I'm a die hard Bears fan, and this was the most exciting offseason I can remember in some time. But seriously, who is coming up with 3-1?!!
  4. AD
    4. Posted by AD Tue Jul 14, 2009 7:43 pm EDT

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    Ok, news flash: The Bears have no chance with their offensive line and skilled players. Cutler was great in Denver because he had the best OT combination in the league, and (statistically) the top WR tandem. Cutler isn't that big of a loss for Denver, and not that big of a gain for Chicago. Denver has as many weapons on offense as any team, and arguably the best offensive line. Chris Chase's mockery of Denver moving up the rankings is laughable, they shouldn't have been ranked that low to begin with.
  5. Fitzy
    5. Posted by Fitzy Tue Jul 14, 2009 7:44 pm EDT

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    Wait...the Jets are actually 6/1 to win the AFC? The AFC with the Pats, Colts, Steelers, Chargers, Titans? Not the CFL? Sheeeeeet, I don't even give them those odds to win their division!
  6. Fitzy
    6. Posted by Fitzy Tue Jul 14, 2009 7:46 pm EDT

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    Yeah, the Bears at 3-1 is a joke, too, but I'm still stuck on the Jets! Has anyone looked at their roster lately?? By that rationale, the Dolphins must be at least 2-1...
  7. onebrownman
    7. Posted by onebrownman Tue Jul 14, 2009 8:01 pm EDT

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    Well, Kyle Orton does have a better career record tHancockler. I bet he has a better year tHancockler as well.
  8. KaptainKirk
    8. Posted by KaptainKirk Tue Jul 14, 2009 8:05 pm EDT

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    REE- Diculous. Obviously the Lions are going to win the Super Bowl.
  9. vertskate900
    9. Posted by vertskate900 Tue Jul 14, 2009 8:08 pm EDT

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    AD(D) sounds like a delusional Broncos fan! I can just imagine him sitting in his basement, his legs tucked into his chest, rocking back and forth repeating the following, "Cutler for Orton was a good trade! Cutler for Orton was a good trade! The Broncos won't finish under .500 this season! McDaniels is a good head coach! McDaniels is a good head coach!"
  10. P.I.M.P U out
    10. Posted by P.I.M.P U out Tue Jul 14, 2009 8:16 pm EDT

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    I have to agree with Skate900.. I'm a Bronco fan and have been for years but to think losing Cutler wasn't a bad thinkg fo our team is a joke. Why do you think Marshall wants out..not just because he deserve more money..yeah but how about the possibility of catching 104 passes tis year..more like 50-60..with the amount of running back we have, Denver will be a run first team with short drop-off passes to the TE and WR's.. AD..you're shocked we we ranked that low...I shocked we weren't ranked lower..
  11. Norman M
    11. Posted by Norman M Tue Jul 14, 2009 8:21 pm EDT

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    Assuming Favre comes through and Jackson gets the boot, we've got a good shot for all the marbles. All the pieces are there, just lacking a QB, until now. Even is Farve doesn't come through, Rosenfels should be enough.
    Of corse I remember the '78 Jets who were told all they need to do to win the Super Bowl was show up. So, they did,Unfortunately, they didn't even come close. despite a magnificent paper line-up
  12. Twinkie
    12. Posted by Twinkie Tue Jul 14, 2009 8:22 pm EDT

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    where did they come up with these odds. I look at the odds all day and haven't seen anything with the bears 3-1 and the jets 6-1. Last time I looked the Pats were still pulling in the best odds in vegas.
  13. r_e_waters
    13. Posted by r_e_waters Tue Jul 14, 2009 8:48 pm EDT

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    Here's another Bears fan who thinks those odds are nuts. Before Cutler has anything like the impact he could have on the Bears, they will need to get some NFL-caliber receivers for him to throw to. Which, being a Chicago team (and thus ever ready to snatch disaster from the jaws of hope), they won't do.
  14. r_e_waters
    14. Posted by r_e_waters Tue Jul 14, 2009 8:49 pm EDT

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    Here's another Bears fan who thinks those odds are nuts. Before Cutler has anything like the impact he could have on the Bears, they will need to get some NFL-caliber receivers for him to throw to. Which, being a Chicago team (and thus ever ready to snatch disaster from the jaws of hope), they won't do.
  15. Coach Isiah Thompson
    15. Posted by Coach Isiah Thompson Tue Jul 14, 2009 9:23 pm EDT

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    A very reliable anonymous source has confirmed that Coach Lovey Smith was overheard to have said this about his newly acquired quarterback Jay Cutler: "It's unfair to blame Jay for getting upset because the Broncos were willing to trade him to New England for Matt Cassel. The Chiefs and Patriots trade and swindle as a team. It's totally unfair to blame Jay. He's my quarterback, man. He's my quarterback!" And now you know the rest of the story......good day! Discuss!
  16. Milk Money
    16. Posted by Milk Money Tue Jul 14, 2009 9:30 pm EDT

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    Why does Cutler have on Bronco colors in this photo - blue shirt, orange tie!
  17. Steve
    17. Posted by Steve Tue Jul 14, 2009 9:33 pm EDT

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    I don't get the Cutler love. He has never won anything remotely worth winning as a Pro. Now he will get to the Super Bowl? Ye Gods, no.
  18. qLaneq
    18. Posted by qLaneq Tue Jul 14, 2009 9:34 pm EDT

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    Is it maybe possible that the reasons why their odds have been less rewarding is that the offseason is now pretty much over, so the people who called it now are more likely to get it right than those who called it before the offseason began?
  19. Turducken (minus ucken)
    19. Posted by Turducken (minus ucken) Tue Jul 14, 2009 9:37 pm EDT

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    Bears defense! Imagine having to throw a shutout every time you take the mound. Cutler didn't have to imagine it. Excellent QB's make receivers better. If a fan can cheer for the Cubs, or worse, White Sox, how can you not imagine 3-1.
  20. tigerjoe8743
    20. Posted by tigerjoe8743 Tue Jul 14, 2009 9:41 pm EDT

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    Whoever made the bears' odds 3 to 1 can't be looking at the Bear defense which has reeling the last couple of seasons. It had more weakspots last year and can't rush the QB. Hence, the bears look to be in some high scoring affairs - but we all know, defense wins the big games in the NFL. Also, who knows who is the bears' back-up QB is if Cutler has to miss part of a game or God forbid a full game or two!
  21. Troy G
    21. Posted by Troy G Tue Jul 14, 2009 9:44 pm EDT

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    hey brett, just go away now
  22. Andrew P
    22. Posted by Andrew P Tue Jul 14, 2009 10:00 pm EDT

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    all cutler has to do now is get about 20 points a game
    and the bears are shoo in the playoffs
    i really dont understand why the broncos fans are in such denial
    losing culter and gaining orton gives broncos an incompetent qb
    dont kid yourself by saying hes efficient we all know thats all bs
  23. mastereditorinchief
    23. Posted by mastereditorinchief Tue Jul 14, 2009 10:07 pm EDT

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    You'd think Jay Cutler could put a smile on his face.
  24. The Hiphopopotamus
    24. Posted by The Hiphopopotamus Tue Jul 14, 2009 10:28 pm EDT

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    those three chins say orton will be the better QB this year
  25. Bones
    25. Posted by Bones Tue Jul 14, 2009 10:34 pm EDT

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    Odds are determined by how people are betting more than roster changes

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Shutdown Corner is an NFL blog edited by Matthew J. Darnell. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

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