Tue Jul 14, 2009 7:04 pm EDT
Having a new quarterback in town often brings with it an irrational exuberance from a team's fanbase. I remember thinking, nay, knowing that Danny Wuerffel rejoining Steve Spurrier in Washington was going to lead to a return to glory for the Redskins. (And I'm usually a pessimist when it comes to such things.) So it's natural for fans of teams with a new QB to have high hopes for the season. But, this year, it's not just fans that are counting on those teams to make big improvements.
The three teams that have made (or will make) the highest-profile quarterback additions have had their odds to win their respective conference championships shorten considerably in the past six months.
Almost every team sees its odds improve as the off-season progresses (particularly those with the longest odds -- Detroit went from 75/1 to 28/1), but the teams that have made the biggest jumps are the ones that have made the biggest splash at QB.
In a special off-season edition of Over the Lines, we look at the shifting odds for those three teams. (All odds courtesy the MGM Mirage Race & Sports Book):
Chicago Bears -- 15/1 to 3/1 -- The favorite to win the NFC isn't Philadelphia (4/1) or the Giants (21/5) or Dallas (9/2). Nope, that distinction belongs to Jay Cutler(notes) and the Chicago Bears. After the Super Bowl, Chicago had the same odds to win the NFC in the 2009-2010 season as the Washington Redskins (15/1). Now, they're considered more likely to win the NFC than Pittsburgh (7/2) is to win the AFC. Those are some lofty expectations for a quarterback who has never finished over .500 in his career.
New York Jets -- 15/1 to 6/1 -- To be fair, the Jets have made more additions than just Mark Sanchez(notes). But it's the presence of Sanchez that is compelling bettors to put money on New York's AFC team. People seem to be confident that the stellar rookie campaigns from Matt Ryan(notes) and Joe Flacco(notes) last year were the rule, not the exceptions. History suggests it's the other way around.
Minnesota Vikings -- 11/1 to 4/1 -- Brett Favre(notes) hasn't even signed with the Vikings yet, but that hasn't stopped those in Vegas from installing Minnesota as a bigger favorite to win the NFC than the New York Giants (21/5). If you ever wonder how the house always wins, consider the fact that people are wagering on Favre to win a conference title.
Bonus: Denver Broncos -- 18/1 to 12/1 -- Lest you think that these odds have anything to do with reality, consider the fact that Denver's odds have improved despite the firing of Mike Shanahan and the fact that Kyle Orton(notes) will be starting at quarterback.
Shutdown Corner is an NFL blog edited by Matthew J. Darnell. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

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Of corse I remember the '78 Jets who were told all they need to do to win the Super Bowl was show up. So, they did,Unfortunately, they didn't even come close. despite a magnificent paper line-up
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and the bears are shoo in the playoffs
i really dont understand why the broncos fans are in such denial
losing culter and gaining orton gives broncos an incompetent qb
dont kid yourself by saying hes efficient we all know thats all bs
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