Shutdown Corner - NFL

Fri Nov 06, 2009 10:48 am EST

Is the NFL recession-proof?

The recent travails of the American economy have affected just about everyone. But when it comes to the country's interest in the National Football League, people are simply switching allegiances from out-of-pocket to stay-at-home. According to a report by Mark Maske of the Washington Post, television ratings for NFL games are at their highest in 20 years, with an average of 17.2 million viewers watching each game. Those numbers are up 15 percent from last season. Former CBS Sports President Neal Pilson and New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft agree that the ratings spike is due to a desire of those whose wallets are lighter these days to stay closer to home.

"I think people are making conscious decisions that their entertainment dollars are best spent watching NFL games free on their television sets on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night and Monday night," Pilson said in the article. Another theory is that most of the NFL's worst teams, like the Chiefs, Rams, and Titans, are in smaller markets.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell acknowledges the trend. "Since we continue to be available on free television, our fans can gather around the television sets rather than pursuing other opportunities that are more costly." One wonders if Goodell is tipping his hand when it comes to the thought of a pay-per-view model with that remark -- certainly if this continues and small-market teams struggle in the wake of half-empty stadiums (the Jacksonville Jaguars will suffer their fourth TV blackout this season when they face the Chiefs on Sunday), a pay model might be thrown out there in continued CBA discussions as a way to keep the revenue-sharing model going. Overall, NFL attendance is down about two percent from last year according to Maske's article, but that's far more indicative of those small-market struggles than it is a ding on teams like the Cowboys, Giants, Jets, Redskins, Broncos and Seahawks, who have been selling out their stadiums as a near-automatic proposition.

On the verge of a CBA meltdown, an uncapped year, a possible lockout, and a very different business model, the NFL will have to find new ways to draw viewers and make money from that viewership. As it has many times before, television may be pro football's saving grace.

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  1. Peter D
    1. Posted by Peter D Fri Nov 06, 2009 11:04 am EST

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    they are to an extent. but if the massic disparity in the league continues, then viewership is bound to fall at some point. sure there are a half dozen cities that are recession proof, but as you said, detroit, st louis, jax etc. will struggle more an more as the season progresses
  2. Buck N
    2. Posted by Buck N Fri Nov 06, 2009 11:09 am EST

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    The pay-per-view model will destroy the NFL. Just as it did Boxing and the Nhl.
  3. FairlyHonestBob
    3. Posted by FairlyHonestBob Fri Nov 06, 2009 11:24 am EST

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    We already have pay per view if you want to watch more than what the local networks force feed you every week.
  4. Eric
    4. Posted by Eric Fri Nov 06, 2009 11:46 am EST

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    If the NFL goes to Pay Per View, I will no longer watch and support the NFL and their teams!
  5. MrScary
    5. Posted by MrScary Fri Nov 06, 2009 11:51 am EST

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    Pay per view per game would be cheaper than the NFL Sunday Ticket. With HD that's $400 a year PLUS you need to have the basic package, which is $30 a month, which is $120 for four months. Add it all up and it's $520. If the NFL charged $10-$20 per game (16 games for your team) that's $320 for the whole season.
    If you live in a different market than your favorite team plays, pay per view would be cheaper than the Ticket.
    And remember, if you do live in your team's market, you'll probably get most of the games for free. So you'd save even more money.
  6. Barney the Purple Dinosaur
    6. Posted by Barney the Purple Dinosaur Fri Nov 06, 2009 11:51 am EST

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    Love it that Denver has sold out every game since 1970, way back when it was definitely a "small market" (as opposed to being a small to medium-sized local market as it is today). In late 1969, the Broncos were on the verge of finishing their 10th straight non-winning season (they did go 7-7 in 1962) since their founding and STILL managed to begin a sellout streak that lasts to this day. Even better, even AFTER the sellout streak started, the Broncos went ANOTHER 3 years with losing records before finally finishing 7-5-2 in 1973, their 14th year as a franchise.
    Denver didn't win a division title until the 1977 Orange Crush team, the team's 18th year in the league, but by then sold-out games were an expected part of the culture.
  7. Anton
    7. Posted by Anton Fri Nov 06, 2009 11:58 am EST

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    Goodell, on thought of making NFL ppv, in the words of Burns "Excellent."
  8. Isaac M
    8. Posted by Isaac M Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:10 pm EST

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    I think the big thing to consider is that the small market teams are generally not very good. If they were, well, good, they'd attract more ticket sales, and possibly be recession proof like the big markets, or at least not hit as hard. So hopefully these teams get better and the NFL parity balances out before they go pay per view or some such thing.
  9. Eric
    9. Posted by Eric Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:25 pm EST

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    The small market teams are generally not good???? Where do you get that idea. Everyones salary cap is the same. Its up to the franchise to select the correct group of players. It is not an unbalanced money issue like baseball. Also tthe Green Bay packers the smallest market in all Pro Sports pulls their own weight in ticket sales and merchandise. Generally the team that isnt good doesnt fill their staduims which is mostly the big cities because they have the most percentage of fair weather fans.
  10. Lavell E
    10. Posted by Lavell E Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:31 pm EST

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    Here's a thought Goodell, Fix the rookie contract so the play in the NFL can improve. We have too many rookies playing who are not improving thus we have a lot of lousy NFL teams.
    When you sign a 1st pick to a 45 million dollar signing bonus you are expecting rookies to make a significant impact which rarely happens. Hurry up and redo the labor agreement and redo these rookie contracts.
  11. Instant Money
    11. Posted by Instant Money Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:51 pm EST

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    NFL Red-Zone is all you need, its like football on crack, can't get enough of it.
  12. Don Squeek
    12. Posted by Don Squeek Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:58 pm EST

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    I love the last line of this "On the verge of a CBA meltdown, an uncapped year, a possible lockout, and a very different business model, the NFL will have to find new ways to draw viewers and make money from that viewership." Its like saying what else can Goodell do before being declared the Worst Commissioner of all of sports of all time!! He desserves that title for attmepting to ruin the NFL over and over again.
  13. Charles L
    13. Posted by Charles L Fri Nov 06, 2009 1:15 pm EST

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    to #10
    the problem is, those huge contracts aren't even that big of a deal. if you decrease the pay for the top 10-15 picks, do you think the owners will spend the money on improving the team? or will they spend it to improve their multi-million dollar mansions? a lot of teams are millions under the cap and it's not like there are tons of talented players out there without a team. any players that teams think are worth keeping under contract already are, there's a reason they're not playing...
  14. Paul
    14. Posted by Paul Fri Nov 06, 2009 1:20 pm EST

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    In an economy such as this, all "like" entertainment boats are raised or lowered with the tide. Check college football. Same thing I'd wager. International travel and ocean cruising, all down. I don't think that the performance of the NFL is a reflection on the NFL or its type of entertainment, only a reflection on how people are spending thir time.
  15. dudelabowski
    15. Posted by dudelabowski Fri Nov 06, 2009 1:44 pm EST

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    #5 Do you really think the NFL wold only charge $10-$20 a game. You can't go to the stadium and park for that amount in a lot of NFL cities. More likely they would charge $40-$50 a game and they aren't going to get me to pay that.
  16. pc_cisco
    16. Posted by pc_cisco Fri Nov 06, 2009 1:58 pm EST

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    A PPV model would pretty much destroy the NFL as we know it. think about the perpetual losers of this decade Detroit, Oakland, Jacksonville, Browns, Rams, are you telling me that these teams' (some of whom are suffering blackouts) fans will pay for TV service and then pay to watch their team bumble their way through the season? No, the majority of fans either through taxes or PSLs already have to pay for the stadiums and the comish wants to nickel and dime us even more? Makes me hope congress drop the anti-trust exemption and screws em all!
  17. Gregory R
    17. Posted by Gregory R Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:07 pm EST

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    I agree with Eric above....won't watch or follow NFL if it's not on TV. I go to games occassionally (1 per year about) - but it's a long drive there and back. If I don't get a chance to follow them on TV, I'll definitely lose interest and then won't have ANY desire to make the drive for a game.
  18. Mike
    18. Posted by Mike Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:10 pm EST

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    I am a huge NFL fan. I don't only want to see my team each week, I watch each game that is available. But the greed of the NFL is starting to tick me off. I already can't even come close to taking my son to an NFL game because of the parking and ticket prices. Then they try to force us all into paying for NFL network by putting some of the best late season games only on this network. If they can afford the contracts they are handing out and still be making the money that they are making, it is pure greed that would cause them to try to make more money by going PPV. I, along with many people I know, will stop watching and never turn back.
  19. hot diggity dog
    19. Posted by hot diggity dog Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:34 pm EST

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    I refuse to pay to watch NFL games on TV. If they go to that, I may just have to follow scores along online. Pay-per-view would be their downfall. Sure, every fans wants to support their team, but at what costs? The NFL is all about money. Ridiculous.
  20. voterjs
    20. Posted by voterjs Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:40 pm EST

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    I think its funny how everyone says the will stop watching.. you full of S-hit. No fan can live with out the NFL no matter what. it is like a religion.
  21. TNFootballFan
    21. Posted by TNFootballFan Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:41 pm EST

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    One thing to point out here is that he mentioned the Titans in the article, yet every game this year is sold out already.
  22. Todd Simon
    22. Posted by Todd Simon Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:42 pm EST

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    They already have The MNF games on ESPN...Some People don't have cable to watch the Games....And The NFL Network has been doing games also. I think it is unfair for those who don't have cable can't watch MNF or the NFL Network. The NFL Network in turn is not available on every Cable Company. The Commissioner should move the low market teams to higher market areas, maybe then the profit will rise.
  23. Mike
    23. Posted by Mike Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:54 pm EST

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    As I said previously, voterjs, I am a very hard core NFL fan. But I will absolutely stop watching NFL football if they go PPV. If you don't believe that people will quit watching, you aren't paying much attention to the people around you. There are huge numbers of casual viewers who wouldn't even think of paying for a football game on PPV.

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Shutdown Corner is an NFL blog edited by Matthew J. Darnell. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

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