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Shutdown Corner

Mon Feb 02, 2009 4:52 pm EST

Cardinals, NFC buck the odds in Super Bowl coin toss streak

By Chris Chase

The Arizona Cardinals may have been losers on the scoreboard last night, but they did earn one important victory: in the pre-game coin toss. Because the Steelers incorrectly called tails on the flip by General David Petraeus, the Cardinals became the 12th straight NFC team to win the Super Bowl coin toss.

After consulting a sixth-grade math textbook and calling my dad to make sure that I hadn't misunderstood the simple concept of 50/50 chance, I determined that the odds of a single conference winning 12 straight coin tosses is one in 4,096. That's pretty steep.

To put that number in perspective, those are about the same odds that Peter King has of making it through a Monday Morning Quarterback without mentioning Brett Favre.

Update: This is why I write a blog and don't crunch numbers for a living: As my dad and some loyal commenters point out, the odds of the NFC winning 12 straight tosses is, indeed, one in 4,096. But the odds of either the AFC or NFC winning 12 straight is one in 2,048. I'll let commenter Edward R explain:

Because there are two conferences, it is a certainty (not 50/50) that the first toss will start a potential streak for one conference or the other, and the chances of that conference winning the next 11 tosses is 1 in 2,048.

Photo: Getty Images

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107 Comments

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  1. Will
    1. Posted by Will Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:25 pm EDT

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    It is true that to get 12 in row, the odds are 1 in 4096 (.5 to the 12th power). But do not overlook that after 11 straight coin toss wins, the odds of the next one going for the NFC is back to 50%. Same with next year - the NFC has a 50% chance to extend the streak!
  2. Youcanthandlethetruth
    2. Posted by Youcanthandlethetruth Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:17 pm EDT

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    Finally something you can relate to Chase........a sixth grade math book.
    Any other cardinal victories you can report on?
  3. gaborik10m
    3. Posted by gaborik10m Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:05 pm EDT

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    I dont buy it. If the AFC was always assigned to Heads and the NFC was always assigned as tails and the coin was just flipped, THEN the odds of 12 in a row are 1 in 4,096. but when other factors are involved it is merely 50/50 each independent occurrence.
  4. dodgers fan 99
    4. Posted by dodgers fan 99 Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:31 pm EDT

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    wow this is the stupidest thing or fact i have heard of
  5. David C
    5. Posted by David C Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:37 pm EDT

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    U better but it! its a fact! 12 straigth! duh!
  6. David C
    6. Posted by David C Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:37 pm EDT

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    Buy!
  7. keviN
    7. Posted by keviN Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:26 pm EDT

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    that was a girly man coin toss.
  8. First L
    8. Posted by First L Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:07 pm EDT

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    OK, so if the moon IS MADE of green cheese and the world stops rotating for 7/16ths of a second...does GEN Patreaus get to keep the coin?
  9. opy667
    9. Posted by opy667 Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:46 pm EDT

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    Gaborik are you retarded? OF COURSE each occurance is 50/50...however, the odds of flipping a coin and calling it right 12 straight times is, indeed, 1 in 4096. Give it a try and see how long it takes you to call it right 12 straight times.
  10. Kevin M
    10. Posted by Kevin M Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:05 pm EDT

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    No, gaborik, there are no other factors. Each flip is an independent event and it doesn't matter if you made your choice right then or years before - the results are still 50/50.
  11. Daniel K
    11. Posted by Daniel K Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:35 pm EDT

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    It is a 50/50 occurrence that Yahoo will post a stupid comment about something totally unimportant.
  12. Dan D
    12. Posted by Dan D Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:28 pm EDT

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    "I determined that the odds of a single conference winning 12 straight coin tosses is one in 4,096."
    No, the odds of a single conference (read as "any single conference") winning 12 straight are one in 2,048, because someone has to win the first one.
  13. ikushner92
    13. Posted by ikushner92 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:23 pm EDT

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    check this out!
    http://simplegpt.com/members/register.php?ref=ikushner92
  14. George Schablik
    14. Posted by George Schablik Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:07 pm EDT

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    the fact is really the streak....that is a good streak. Don't be a goofball with your 50/50 talk. Everyone is always the genius. Napoleon loved Josephine, Hitler was a jewish austrian, and Obama is a flaming liberal hypocrite...All facts but lets stick to the point. 12 in a row for the NFC! Pretty awesome.
  15. Isabel
    15. Posted by Isabel Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:03 pm EDT

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    I'm glad everyone reading this isn't an idiot and figured out that this was incorrect. =)
  16. Bo Cheever
    16. Posted by Bo Cheever Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:58 pm EDT

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    I believe Warner said the same thing about him coming back next year: "50-50".
    IT'S A SIGN!
  17. Joe Z
    17. Posted by Joe Z Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:38 pm EDT

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    It doesn't say that they called it right 12 straight times, it says they won it. How many of these times did the AFC just call it wrong. Technically, after 12 coin tosses no matter the out come its a 1 in 4096 chance of it happening in that exact order.
  18. ice
    18. Posted by ice Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:10 pm EDT

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    if Pittsburgh is back next year in the superbowl the ref's will find a way for them to win the coin flip...
    Just like the Seahawks 3 years ago the Cards got robbed of a chance to win the superowl..
    East coast bias lives....
    and if they go out on strike in 2011 the NFL is dead...sad we had a couple of good comish's and now we have this clown thatgives us springstein and other lame artist... HELLO, we want young good talent not rock dinosaurs, next year ? whats left of the Beach Boys ???
  19. Twinkie
    19. Posted by Twinkie Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:02 pm EDT

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    Home Team of the Superbowl? How does the Superbowl determine which team is the home team?
  20. Kim
    20. Posted by Kim Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:41 pm EDT

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    It's still 1 in 4,096, whether or not it ends up heads or tails. That's the odds of winning anything that has a 50/50 chance, and then 12 times in a row. (It just means there are 4096 different combinations of 12 heads or tails) It's the same probability for getting heads 12 years in a row, getting 12 tails in a row, or getting the exact combination of TTHTHHHTTHTH over the twelve years. Next year's coin toss by itself, independent of other years, will be a 50/50 chance that the NFC wins. But it will have been a 1 in 8192 chance to have won 13 times in a row.
  21. cire1244
    21. Posted by cire1244 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:25 pm EDT

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    his math is absolutely right. it sounds crazy, but it's true.
  22. Brien M
    22. Posted by Brien M Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:20 pm EDT

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    Actually, it's not that the NFC called the toss correctly 12 straight times. In fact, the AFC team (Steelers) called the toss and *lost* the toss. The odds are "messed up" because in some cases, the NFC got to call the toss (six of the last 12 SB) and won ... the other six times the AFC called the toss and lost.
    The odds calculation would be perfect, as someone else said, only if the NFC was always heads, and the AFC was always tails ... if that were true, then the last 12 tosses would all had to have been heads for the NFC to win them all.
    It's another case of sportscasters and writers looking for some stat that they can chew up airtime discussing, as if the game is decided on the opening coin toss.
  23. kevin h
    23. Posted by kevin h Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:50 pm EDT

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    a better stat.... the last 5 superbowl winners have all worn white
  24. topspin
    24. Posted by topspin Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:34 pm EDT

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    uh NO, the chances are still 50-50. A coin still has only 2 sides and doesn't care who has won the toss before.
  25. baron20677
    25. Posted by baron20677 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:02 pm EDT

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    home team of the superbowl? how does the superbowl determine which team is the home team?

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Shutdown Corner is an NFL blog edited by Matthew J. Darnell. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

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