You're Too Late!

It's too late. For 99.9 percent of us, the relievers available on the waiver wire cannot save our seasons. There aren't enough saves to affect substantial change and it's too hard to budge ERA and WHIP in only five days. Unless you're playing for the scarcest of margins, you have to play your current hand. Steals are another matter entirely, but we'll get to those.

Yes, there are only five days left in the season. My goal today is simple – to create the final closer tiers for the 2014 season. When we meet again, I'll be unveiling my 2015 reliever tiers, which will feature both closers and all meaningful setup men.

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Tier 1: Elite (4)

Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves

Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds

Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals

Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers

Our elite tier was predictably excellent over the last week. Combined, they pitched 12 innings, allowed zero runs, saved six games, and struck out 17 batters.

Two of our closers are playoff bound – Jansen and Holland. Aside from Jansen, the Dodgers bullpen is kind of awful. He should get plenty of action in the postseason. I really hope the Royals survive the Wild Card play-in. Their bullpen is going to play up big in the postseason. Holland and Wade Davis deserve recognition on the biggest stage.

Tier 2: Nearly Elite (5)

David Robertson, New York Yankees

Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics

Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels

http://www.rotoworld.com/images/pos_arrow.gif" align="baseline" />Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates

Joaquin Benoit, San Diego Padres

It's anyone's guess as to what the Yankees plan to do with Robertson. After another excellent week that included two saves, a win, and six strikeouts in four appearances, Robertson appears bound to end the season on good terms. He'll finish the year as the fifth best closer in fantasyland – per my rankings at least.

Doolittle had a positively horrendous outing against the Rangers, in which he allowed five runs, a home run, and walked two. Against the Rangers! He's since bounced back to retire nine straight hitters while picking up a win and a save against his hometown Phillies. Doolittle was on few radars entering the season, but he won't have that problem next year.

Huston Street took a walkoff loss – also against the Rangers. He also threw three perfect innings. The Angels have to be pleased with their midseason acquisition. The bullpen has been a problem area for years, so I expect they'll find a way to extend Street. We'll see. It's a good situation for him.

Melancon saved three in the last week and lost another. It was enough to clinch a postseason berth for the Pirates, although they'll need luck to win the division. I think Pittsburgh is finally ready to call Melancon the closer next season, which is part of the reason I moved him up. I also like pitchers who are stingy with free passes.

Benoit is back in the closer role for San Diego, and he should provide value in 2015 too. The Padres plans are unclear at this juncture – we'll soon see what A.J. Preller has in mind for the franchise. Benoit could be dealt for more youth, or they may start to tool up for a run at contention. Other clubs are said to prefer Benoit as a setup man, but I'm confident labeling him as a top 20 reliever when healthy.

Tier 3: Rock Steady (4)

Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles

Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians

Fernando Rodney, Seattle Mariners

Steve Cishek, Miami Marlins

This is a fun tier. We have Britton and Allen, both of whom have emerged as reliable closer options for their respective clubs. Cleveland and Baltimore should be pleased to have that question solved. Both franchises could stand to further strengthen their bullpen before the ninth inning. In the case of Baltimore, retaining Andrew Miller would be a good, if expensive choice. Cleveland might have to look outside of the organization.

Rodney and Cishek are a different sort of beast. Both have established track records of success, but they also feel like they could slip at any moment. Cishek is going to start getting pricey for a Miami reliever (probably around $6 million next season), while Rodney has one more year on his contract with Seattle.

Tier 4: The Mid-Tier (5)

http://www.rotoworld.com/images/pos_arrow.gif" align="baseline" />Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers

Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays

Drew Storen, Washington Nationals

Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies

Hector Rondon, Chicago Cubs

I was getting tired of Feliz taking save opportunities and then a funny thing happened – he started throwing gas. The Feliz who came back from injury was working in the 90 to 93 mph range. He's spiced things up lately, touching 98 mph on the gun. Assuming he enters spring training with the same heat, he'll be an interesting sleeper option.

Something tells me Jake McGee won't be closing games for the Rays next season – at least not to start the year. For one, Brad Boxberger has emerged as a borderline elite reliever with 104 strikeouts in 64.2 innings. The righty looks a little gassed, but he's a top candidate to earn saves next season. McGee could revert to his floating role, taking on lefties in the biggest spots. Tampa also tends to find retread veteran relievers for the ninth (i.e. Rodney or Grant Balfour).

There seems little doubt that the Nationals will cast Rafael Soriano aside at the end of the season. That opens the door for Drew Storen to retain the closer's mantle. Storen feels like a temporary solution at closer, but he's reliable enough.

The Papelbon versus Ken Giles discussion will dominate the Phillies offseason. The club will want to discard Papelbon, but they'll have trouble doing so. Papelbon has a reputation as a poor clubhouse presence and his contract is unwieldy. He's expected to block trades to any club that doesn't want him to close, which has implications on his 2016 option. Giles appears to be a superior pitcher, similar to Boxberger.

Rondon isn't elite, nor does he appear to have much ceiling beyond his current production. That's fine. He's good enough to close out games while letting some higher upside relievers like Neil Ramirez continue to develop in more flexible roles.

Tier 5: Questions (5)

Addison Reed, Arizona Diamondbacks

Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals

Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers

Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants

Edward Mujica, Boston Red Sox

I'll make a wager – three of these relievers will not enter the season as their club's closer. Of those, Reed is the one I'm confident will earn saves. He has the raw skill set of a fireman. His issue has been a combination of his fly ball profile and high HR/FB ratio. Closers shouldn't allow frequent home runs.

While my preseason prognostications were spot on with Doolittle, Melancon, and Allen, I whiffed big time with Rosenthal. I thought he was a top three closer with the ability to command overpowering stuff. The stuff remains filthy, it's his command that gives him trouble. A walk rate of 5.45 BB/9 won't fly long term. It wouldn't entirely surprise me to see the Cardinals consider moving him back to the rotation. That might entail time in the minors. I'm not saying it's likely, it just wouldn't be a shock.

Two straight seasons of home runs will have Francisco Rodriguez suitors moving carefully. He'll fit best in a large ballpark on an affordable contract. I'm guessing the 32-year-old will want a pricey multi-year deal after saving 43 games. He can lock down saves, but I wouldn't hand him the job. That's just me. I think Rodriguez will be among the last of the “closers” to sign.

Casilla and Mujica are placeholders. They're solid bullpen cogs, but they're not even bonafide setup men. Ideally, you have men like Casilla and Mujica available to fill whichever roles are needed in the pen. You can ask them to close, but it says a lot about the quality of your staff.

Tier 6: Roller Coasters (7)

Jenrry Mejia, New York Mets

Chad Qualls, Houston Astros

LaTroy Hawkins, Colorado Rockies

Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays

Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria Detroit Tigers

Jake Petricka, Zach Putnam, Chicago White Sox

Jared Burton, Minnesota Twins

Let's talk about the slag first. Burton, Petricka, and Putnam are filling a role that has to be performed by somebody. Glen Perkins will return for the Twins while the White Sox almost certainly will find a real closer over the offseason.

Mejia will probably have to fend off Bobby Parnell next spring. It's a good problem for a stingy Mets team. They can count on one of Mejia or Parnell to perform well in the ninth inning and spend their money on more pressing issues.

I get the sense that Houston is ready to contend. Who they hire for the ninth inning will serve as a barometer to test my hypothesis. Qualls isn't a contender's closer, but he's a valuable bullpen cog. If you want my guess, I bet they'll dangle the closer job in front of Baltimore's Miller.

Hawkins is expected to remain the Rockies utterly boring closer. He'll provide mentoring to Adam Ottovino, Rex Brothers, and anyone else who shows up in the Colorado pen.

Janssen seems to be heading out of Toronto. The Jays may need to find a closer outside of their organization. I expect Janssen will get an opportunity similar to Mujica. Someone with some uncertainty in the ninth inning will want a fallback option (or several). The Dodgers have stockpiled former closers in recent years – with little success. He also seems like a fit for Houston or either Chicago team as they pivot towards contention.

I don't know what's going to happen with Nathan or Joakim Soria. My best guess is that Nathan comes back next season and regresses. In the case of Nathan, regression is a good thing – he'd have an ERA in the mid-3's.

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Injured

Jesse Crain (calf, biceps), Houston Astros

Bobby Parnell (elbow), New York Mets

Jim Henderson (shoulder), Milwaukee Brewers

Glen Perkins (shoulder), Minnesota Twins

Perkins' return was short lived. The club has shut him down for the remainder of the season.

The Deposed

Jim Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers

Jose Veras, Chicago Cubs

Josh Fields, Houston Astros

John Axford, Cleveland Indians

Jim Johnson, Oakland Athletics

Jason Grilli, Anaheim Angels

Ernesto Frieri, Pittsburgh Pirates

Sergio Romo, San Francisco Giants

Grant Balfour, Tampa Bay Rays

Ronald Belisario, Chicago White Sox

Joe Smith, Los Angeles Angels

Joakim Soria, Detroit Tigers

Zach Putnam, Chicago White Sox

Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox

Rafael Soriano, Washington Nationals

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The Steals Department

So, you need steals. You're left with a simple equation – you have five days to earn X steals (X is defined by you). If it's more than three, you'll need at least one of Jordan Schafer, Lorenzo Cain, or Ender Inciarte. They were named because they play almost every day and have run frequently in recent weeks. Schafer and Inciarte are pure steals options while Cain can sometimes offer a little more. Jose Ramirez is a middle infielder who somewhat fits the description.

If you just need a couple swipes off the wire, but have to protect other categories, your options are few. Avisail Garcia has stolen three bases in the last month and has good power. Unfortunately, he strikes out a lot which limits his opportunities. Drew Stubbs is perhaps a better choice, although he's platooned pretty steadily now that Michael Cuddyer is playing most days. I think the Mets will look to Kirk Nieuwenhuis frequently with Juan Lagares done for the season.

If you want recognizable names, maybe Michael Bourn or Norichika Aoki will start running with the season winding down. Really, you've put yourself in a bind if you need steals now.