Yahoo Fantasy Hockey: The spin on NHL Trade Deadline deals
(Ed. Note: We’re once again pleased to partner with Dobber Hockey to provide fantasy hockey insight throughout the NHL season. Here’s Steve Laidlaw, the Managing Editor of Dobber Hockey, as your new fantasy hockey smarty-pants!)
By Steve Laidlaw
Deadline or dud line? That’s the question most folks must be asking after Wednesday’s NHL Trade Deadline went off without many fireworks. A few big deals did go down and it’s worth assessing the moving parts for their fantasy relevance.
Kevin Shattenkirk – The Washington Capitals loaded up grabbing the biggest name on the market. Shattenkirk is a highly skilled defenseman at even strength but is killer on the power play. The only player with more points/60 on the man-advantage over the past few seasons is Nicklas Backstrom, also a Washington Capital. The Capitals PP if it gels, might just produce like the ’78 Canadiens.
Shattenkirk bumps Matt Niskanen and John Carlson down to secondary duties but these guys can also produce at 5-on-5 so they shouldn’t suffer too badly. Dmitry Orlov may be shut out of power play time entirely, which hurts his fringe fantasy value. The Capitals have mind-blowing depth and talent to throw at teams. They are going to score. All of these guys may still have value but Shattenkirk is the king and it trickles down from there.
Back in St. Louis, Alex Pietrangelo has taken over the No. 1 power play duties and immediately sees a spike in value. It would be lovely to see what Colton Parayko could do in this spot but alas that does not appear to be the direction that Mike Yeo is heading. Losing Shattenkirk will hurt but the Blues still boast Vladimir Tarasenko and Alex Steen who are both elite power-play producers. They should be fine in this regard. If anything, losing a good puck-mover will hurt the Blues more at 5-on-5.
Jake Allen has been solid since the Blues made their coaching change but he has lost four in a row. This is a team in danger of sliding out of a playoff spot, although the Kings are the only real challenger.
Ben Bishop – It didn’t seem logical for the Tampa Bay Lightning to trade Bishop this season, given how Andrei Vasilevskiy had struggled when thrust into the No. 1 role. Too bad. Steve Yzerman made the decision to move Bishop last summer and when he finally found a taker, he pounced sending Bishop to Los Angeles.
Bishop was on a roll for Tampa Bay and losing him may cost the Lightning a chance at the playoffs, although their chances were slim even with Bishop. Vasilevskiy was awesome in their first game post-trade, which has to be a confidence builder. Vasilevskiy’s potential is immense. Let’s see if he can play to even a fraction of it.
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The Lightning did add Peter Budaj but unless Vasilevskiy tanks, we won’t see much from him. Hope you sold high on Budaj a couple of months ago – his fantasy value is cooked.
Bishop moves into a tandem with Jonathan Quick and should be expected to play about 50% of their remaining games. The Kings do a good job of propping up their goaltenders’ numbers so Bishop could be good but not to the potential he had starting 80% of Tampa Bay’s games.
Thomas Vanek – The Florida Panthers were after a power play specialist and they may have found their man. Vanek isn’t much of a skater any longer but he is exceptional in the half-court game. Detroit maximized his talents using him almost exclusively on offensive zone starts and on the power play. They got 15 goals and 38 points in 48 games from Vanek, despite using him for only 14:37 per game.
The Panthers are a much deeper team and can use Vanek in an even more specialized role. This move probably won’t help Vanek as he is unlikely to see any more minutes in Florida.
Instead, Vanek’s presence will bump someone else down the lineup. If that player is Jonathan Marchessault, then the Panthers have made a mistake. Marchessault has been their most effective power-play scorer this season. He has already been bumped down to the third line. Losing PP minutes could be lethal to his fantasy relevance.
It is more likely that someone like Nick Bjugstad or Reilly Smith gets bumped in favour of Vanek but we will see how this all shakes out.
Back in Detroit, the Wings are in rebuild mode so they won’t necessarily miss the loss of secondary offense but his absence could hurt his most frequent linemates: Frans Nielsen and Andreas Athanasiou. On the other hand, if Athanasiou can finally get a regular PP shift, we just might see the emergence of a star.
Patrick Eaves – Eaves went from skating alongside Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn in Dallas to skating alongside Corey Perry and Rickard Rakell in Anaheim. Not a bad deal but definitely a step backwards especially because Perry’s game is in serious regression but also because Eaves went from top power play usage in Dallas to secondary power play usage in Anaheim.
Eaves was already of borderline fantasy relevance, owned in about a quarter of all Yahoo leagues. This deal should move him into irrelevance, although you never know when a hot streak may pop up over the course of 20 games.
Back in Dallas, Eaves’ PP minutes have been scooped up by Patrick Sharp and Jiri Hudler. Hudler has three points in three games since the deal was consummated. Sharp was also on the trade block but rumour has it that a nagging injury kept him from being dealt. That same injury could cost him a spot in the lineup entirely.
Also, look for Antoine Roussel as a potential replacement for Eaves. He hasn’t seen any PP time yet but he has the size, determination and hands to be a decent net-front presence. He is also one of the top penalty minute options in the league.
Martin Hanzal – The top rental center on the board went from first-line center in Arizona, to third-line center in Minnesota. This is a likely step backwards for Hanzal’s already fringe fantasy value. He joined a Minnesota team in the midst of a mumps outbreak so while he might have been paired with the red-hot Jason Pominville and Zach Parise he instead skated with Charlie Coyle and Tyler Graovac. It could be a few weeks before we discover Hanzal’s true fate.
Bottom line: unless your league scores faceoff wins and hits, Hanzal isn’t likely to be on your radar.
Brian Boyle – Boyle goes from centering the third line, killing penalties and playing the net-front on the second power play unit in Tampa Bay to centering the fourth line, killing penalties and playing the net-front on the second power play unit in Toronto. Not much of a change here but then again Boyle wasn’t of much fantasy relevance beyond deep leagues.
The big impact is that the absence of Boyle and Valtteri Filppula from the Lightning lineup will hurt their playoff chances, and subsequently, Vasilevskiy’s fantasy value. The void also allows for younger guys like Vladislav Namestnikov and Brayden Point to play more minutes.
More intriguing is what happens for the Lightning superstar forwards that remain. Nikita Kucherov scored a hat-trick on a loaded-up power play unit with Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Victor Hedman. The Lightning look a lot like a one-trick pony. But one-trick ponies can be lethal and that would mean big fantasy numbers from those five the rest of the way.
Valtteri Filppula – The Philadelphia Flyers clearly liked Filppula a good deal if they were willing to take on his onerous contract for another season. He still offers plenty of value as a scoring-line centerman. In fact, his 5-on-5 scoring rate is better than any Flyer player this season. That should tell you the dire straights that Philadelphia has been in.
If Filppula can move the needle for Philadelphia, perhaps he helps their entire lineup get things together. What the Flyers have done since their winning streak came to an end on December 17th is absolutely pathetic. They have gone 10-16-4 in that stretch with 54 goals (1.8 goals/game). The only thing keeping them afloat has been their power play, which has clicked on 19.5% over this run, which is still a step backwards from their usual perch among the elite.
Check out the Flyers’ top scorers over this 30-game stretch of doom:
That is some woeful stuff. It doesn’t help that they have been without Konecny, their top 5-on-5 producer for 11 weeks. Unfortunately, it sounds like he is still several weeks out.
Filppula isn’t overly fantasy relevant, especially since he won’t crack the Flyers’ top PP unit. It’s also worth mentioning that he is coming in cold, with just two points in his last 12 games. He also spent over half of his shifts with the electric Jonathan Drouin this season. His 5-on-5 scoring rate is the best he has put up since joining the Lightning in 2013-14.
Even if we attribute a good chunk of his production to Drouin, Filppula still offers skills that the Flyers can use. If he can help this team with their transition play, then perhaps he can help drive some improved 5-on-5 scoring. If the Flyers can get up to even 2.0 goals per game the rest of the way, Filppula will have made a significant impact on the fantasy landscape.
Mark Streit – Ever since Shayne Gostisbehere showed up on the scene, Streit hasn’t been fantasy relevant. He’ll be stuck behind some good ones in Pittsburgh now too with Kris Letang and Justin Schultz providing elite scoring from the back end. But Pittsburgh is also the league’s highest scoring team and their defense corps is one of the league’s most fragile.
Could Streit slot in as the No. 3 guy, seeing some secondary PP minutes, a la Trevor Daley before he went down with an injury that will cost him the regular season? Well, if you even explore that possibility, you’ll recall that Daley was on pace for just 26 points this season. Not fantasy relevant.
Streit is a different player than Daley. He has a much better shot but he’s also not as mobile. Seems like Streit is just a stopgap option to help get the Penguins to the dance.
Alex Burrows – Burrows hasn’t had a fantasy-relevant season since 2011-12. Do not expect him to spawn back to life in Ottawa. However, Burrows does represent an upgrade for the Senators who were awfully thin up front. This could help limit the number of five-alarm saves that Craig Anderson has to make down the stretch. Anderson has been magnificent and is up to the task but an improved roster could limit Anderson’s volatility down the stretch.
David Desharnais – The Edmonton Oilers needed a third-line center so they traded for the one that Montreal no longer had any use for. It seems likely that Desharnais will center Drake Caggiula and Zack Kassian, who are decent forwards but not the kind that will drive Desharnais to fantasy relevance.
Escaping Montreal will help Desharnais but only because playing is better than not. It seems likely that Edmonton will remain a one-line show.
Jarome Iginla – Are the Los Angeles Kings trying to turn the Staples Center into a mausoleum? They went through this last year with Vincent Lecavalier. I suppose former NHL stars aren’t done until they take a turn rotting on LA’s fourth line.
The hope is that Iginla can pair with Anze Kopitar and help provide some scoring punch outside of what Jeff Carter and Tanner Pearson are providing but Iginla doesn’t have much in the tank. Maybe he can help their power play but not if it comes at the expense of Pearson who has been lighting it up of late.
Kopitar went on a nice run of production before Tyler Toffoli returned. Once they tried that pairing Kopitar fell off again. He was better dragging Marian Gaborik up and down the ice that he was skating with Toffoli. So maybe there’s hope for Iginla yet.
Jannik Hansen – The San Jose Sharks have coveted speed since watching the Penguins blow past them in the Stanley Cup final. It’s why they bought high on Mikkel Boedker in free agency. Hansen will provide much more bang for the buck. The speedy veteran winger has been a good 5-on-5 scorer throughout his career because of his ability to turn defense into an odd-man rush the other way. However, that offense is fleeting and he doesn’t offer much on the power play. Do not expect Hansen to have fantasy relevance. Instead, he’ll be a valuable fourth-line option who helps them win games.
The biggest impact Hansen has in terms of fantasy value might be in blocking the advancement of top prospect Timo Meier, although had Meier asserted himself, perhaps the Sharks never make this add. Better luck next year, Timo.
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The Sharks gave up a solid prospect in Nikolay Goldobin to land Hansen. Goldobin’s near point-per-game scoring at the AHL level has him knocking on the door of a call-up. It seems almost certain that the Canucks will give him an NHL shot down the stretch to see what they have.
Hansen had been skating alongside Bo Horvat of late and it would be wonderful if Goldobin was given a shot alongside Vancouver’s best player. Sven Baertschi is due back from injury soon and he will grab one of those lineup spots but Burrows’ move to Ottawa opens up another spot for Goldobin. If he flashes skills he’d be a worthy fantasy acquisition.
Steve Laidlaw is the Managing Editor of Dobberhockey. You can follow him on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw
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