Week 7 Starts/Sits: Justin time

The NFL schedule is a bit unusual this week as there are only four divisional tilts on tap (including Thursday's NYJ/NE affair), and there's six matchups pitting an NFC team vs. an AFC team. Perhaps the unfamiliarity of foes was a partial reason why every game opened this week with an Over/Under of less than 50. To help you navigate the Week 7 mystery, I offer you six players that are looking better than usual this week, and, on the flip side, six players that are looking worse than usual.

STARTS

QB – Matt Ryan, Atl at Bal – Normally, Ryan is a no-brainer start, but he lands at No. 14 on the Yahoo QB rankings this week as three of my colleagues list him as no better than the No. 15 QB. I understand the worry: he's on the road (where he hasn't fared well) and he's facing a strong Baltimore defense. But I think it would be wrong to overrate the Ravens versus the pass, even though they've allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy PPG to the QB position. After all, they've allowed 290-plus passing yards to a QB in four of their six games, including back-to-back 300-yard efforts to Andrew Luck and Mike Glennon the past two weeks. And Baltimore has allowed the third-most pass plays of 20-plus yards (24), which jibes nicely for Ryan, as he leads the league with 28 pass completions of 20-plus yards.

RB – Justin Forsett, Bal vs. Atl – The next time Forsett gets less than 65 yards from scrimmage (YFS), it'll be the first time this season. He's been a consistency king in the Baltimore backfield on a regular 12-15 carries. And this week, facing an Atlanta defense that allows a league-high 190.3 YFS per game to the RB position (approximately 20 yards more than the next closest team), Forsett could be headed for his best performance yet. Forsett owners who have been viewing him as an RB2/Flex option need to adjust their thinking – he's looking very much like an RB1 this week.

RB – Jeremy Hill, Cin at Indy – Despite averaging just 10 touches over the past month, the rookie Hill lands inside the top 20 among RBs in fantasy points per game in that span. And the only two games in which Hill has reached double digit touches have come in contests that WR A.J. Green was out (12 touches in Week 6), or exited early (17 touches in Week 2). With Green expected to be sidelined again this week, count on a dozen or more touches against an Indy defense allowing a robust 4.6 YPC to opposing running backs. The run-heavy Bengals are likely to place an even greater emphasis on their ground attack than usual in an effort to keep fantasy's top-scoring QB (Andrew Luck) off the field. I think Hill's good for at least 60 yards and a TD.

WR – Andre Holmes/James Jones, Oak vs. Ari – This is a shout-out for both Oakland receivers. The garbage-time all stars have both scored more than 43 percent of their fantasy points in the fourth quarter as the Raiders, more often than not, are chasing the scoreboard. And the two have combined for 63 percent of all the combined fantasy points scored by Oakland receivers and tight ends – for comparison's sake, Denver's Thomas duo have combined for 65.5 percent of the teams WR+TE fantasy points. So, if you think Oakland has a decent chance to throw with success in a given week, you have to like the fantasy upside for Holmes and Jones. And this week, the Raiders face an Arizona defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to the WR position. Back the Silver-and-Black passing attack.

WR – Brandin Cooks, NO at Det – I already laid out the reasons why I like Cooks this week in our Dissenting Opinions column, the jist of which is that Cooks is, by a wide margin, the Saints' second-most targeted option in the passing game behind Jimmy Graham. And with Graham likely to be out with a shoulder injury, Cooks has a good shot to see 12-plus targets in Detroit on Sunday. And, I also wouldn't be surprised if he picked up at least a couple carries, as well. In a tough matchup against a very good Lions pass defense, I think it'll be Cooks' ability to create space quickly (unlike Marques Colston) that will make him a magnet for Drew Brees. I'm playing a WR1 hunch on Cooks this week.

TE -  Larry Donnell, NYG at Dal – To quote the actor John McGinley in Point Break, Donnell has "produced exactly squat" in the past two games (a combined one catch for six yards). But, at Dallas on Sunday, expect to see the Donnell that, over the first month of the season, looked like Antonio Gates in his prime. First off, Donnell faces a Cowboys defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to the TE position. And a big reason Donnell has disappeared in the passing game lately is because he's been asked to block more. But Dallas has just seven sacks in six games, so the need for extra protection for Eli Manning won't be as great this week. And the need to get Donnell involved in the passing game has been elevated with the loss of receiver Victor Cruz. I think a 5/60/1 line from Donnell is  plausible this week.

SITS

QB – Ben Roethlisberger, Pit vs. Hou – Big Ben has been a big disappointment the past two weeks (No. 20 fantasy QB in that span), failing to take advantage of soft matchups vs. Jacksonville and Cleveland. This week, the competition is much more problematic, as Houston ranks among the leaders in passes defensed and has J.J. Watt up front, applying a whole lot of pressure on the QB (and rookie Jadeveon Clowney could make his return from a knee injury, as well). And it's worth mentioning that Roethlisberger hasn't exactly shined under the Monday night lights, owning career MNF marks of 180.1 passing YPG and a 16:14 TD/INT ratio in 13 career contests.

RB – Frank Gore, SF at Den – Gore faces a Denver defense in Week 7 that only Buffalo has bested in terms of limiting yards per carry to the RB position (2.9). And the Broncos (thanks to their prolific offense) also force teams to the air, as they have allowed the fourth-fewest RB carries per game (18.8). If that proves to be the case again on Sunday night, it certainly will hurt Gore's cause as he's averaging just 0.67 catches per game. Coming off a shaky 16/38/0 line at St. Louis in Week 6, it's a good time to demote Gore to your bench.

RB – Ronnie Hillman, Den vs. SF – Since DeMarco Murray went for 20.3 fantasy points (he's been 19-plus in every game) against them in Week 1, the 49ers defense hasn't allowed a RB to reach 10 fantasy points since, an impressive feat considering they've faced Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy and Andre Ellington (among others) in that span. For Hillman to be worthy of RB2 status this week, he pretty much needs to hit at around 10 fantasy points. To his credit, he topped that mark last week against a stout Jets defense. But Gang Green has been a bit leaky to the RB position in recent weeks, allowing 110-plus YFS to three straight backs (Shane Vereen, Hillman and Branden Oliver). Against San Francisco, I don't see Hillman scoring a TD or accruing more than 75-80 YFS.

WR – Pierre Garcon, Was vs. Ten – I talked down about Garcon in the Dissenting Opinions piece I mentioned (above). Somehow Garcon has convinced a few of my colleagues that he is worthy of top 20-25 WR placement this week, while I'm having a hard time awarding him even top 35 consideration. His yardage totals in the past three games look like this: 31, 23, 28. He found the end zone last week to salvage a little dignity. But, otherwise, he's been a complete afterthought for QB Kirk Cousins – he's averaged just five targets per game in the past three weeks compared to 10.7 over the first three weeks. And since you can't count on touchdowns from Garcon (just 7 in his past 26 NFL games), there's just not a whole lot to love.

WR – Michael Crabtree, SF at Den – Crabtree is another 49ers offensive player I'd have riding the pine this week. Denver's vaunted cornerback duo of Aqib Talib and Chris Harris has helped limit opposing wide receivers to just a 54 percent completion rate. The Broncos also haven't allowed a WR to reach 60 receiving yards in the past four games. And while Crabtree found the end zone last week in St. Louis, he hasn't exactly been on the same page as Colin Kaepernick of late  - averaging just 36 receiving yards and a completion rate of 45 percent in the past three games. And in that span, Crabtree has been the fourth-best fantasy WR on his own team, behind Anquan Boldin, Brandon Lloyd and Stevie Johnson. Considering the fantasy points pie is going to likely be smaller than usual this week, I wouldn't risk Crabtree getting enough work to be viable as even a WR3.

TE -  Clay Harbor, Jac vs. Cle – Harbor has been a popular TE add as he's the No. 7 fantasy tight end over the past three weeks (twice reaching 70-plus yards in that span). But fantasy owners shouldn't count on him to continue his roll this week against the Browns. The Cleveland defense has forced a season-low fantasy point tally to every tight end it has faced other than Jimmy Graham (and I give defenses a pass when it comes to Top Jimmy). I don't see Harbor even finishing among the top 20 fantasy tight ends this week.