Week 16 Rankings

Updated 12/21 at 12:05 PM ET. Removed Julian Edelman and LeGarrette Blount. Added Julio Jones (WR17) and DeAndre Hopkins (WR28). Moved DeMarco Murray down to RB13. Moved Shane Vereen and Jonas Gray up.

If you’re still alive for the fantasy finals, you’ve weathered injuries, bad draft picks and Peyton Manning suddenly deciding he’d rather be Alex Smith than, well, Peyton Manning. The path to a championship is rarely straight, and often unfair. Fake football is a microcosm of life itself. The best are not always rewarded, but the right process maximizes your chances of the right result. Outcomes are up to the forces of nature. Accept that, and you’ve won no matter how hard your team tries to ruin your months of yeoman’s work.

Not every decision will be your masterpiece, but enough good ones will brick the wall of a fantasy championship. Be wise, be brave and, hopefully, be victorious. Thank you for reading this season.

Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-week $2 Million Fantasy Football league for Week 16's games. It's only $25 to join and first prize is $200,000. Starts Sunday, December 21st at 1pm ET. Here's the link.

Week 16 Quarterbacks

QB Notes: One player enters the fantasy finals averaging 30 weekly points. His name is Andrew Luck, and he has a plum Week 16 matchup in a Cowboys defense that doesn’t necessarily break, but has made a habit of bending. Not even Luck’s recent turnover binge has affected his fantasy production, as his 27.7 average points over the past five weeks still rank No. 1. The No. 35 overall player by ADP this summer, Luck has been one of 2014’s biggest bargains. … Aaron Rodgers is coming off the worst start of his career. There to console him? The soft cushions of Lovie Smith’s Tampa 2 defense. Rodgers has been much better at home this season, but still elite on the road. If you survived last week’s horror show and advanced, Rodgers should make amends and help you wrap up a title. … Drew Brees’ season has had more twists and turns than an M. Night Shyamalan-inspired young adult novel, but the ending shouldn’t be a surprise. Brees enters the fantasy season’s final week as its No. 3 overall quarterback. Going up against a Falcons defense that’s dead last both in yards per attempt (8.3) and passing yards per game (293), Brees promises a big bang for his 2014 finale.

Tom Brady enters the fantasy finals having thrown at least two touchdowns in 10-straight starts. Game three of the streak came against the Jets in Week 7, where Brady threw for 261 yards and three scores. With only two games left in the Rex Ryan era, the Jets figure to go down swinging in what amounts to their Super Bowl, but they simply don’t have the talent on the back end of their defense to slow down Brady. … Matthew Stafford disappointed against the Vikings, but comes home (figuratively, not literally) to a Week 16 pillow in a Bears defense allowing the most fantasy points to enemy QBs. Stafford pilloried Mel Tucker’s unit on Thanksgiving, racking up 275 yards and two touchdowns before halftime. Stafford has the chance to put the final nail in Marc Trestman’s coffin. Expect him to do so with glee. … Peyton Manning, QB6? That’s where we’re at with Manning averaging just 195 yards over his past three starts, amassing only three total touchdowns in the process. Further complicating matters is a Bengals defense that boasts a forbidding 14:14 TD:INT ratio against. Manning’s upside makes him unbenchable, but he can’t be counted on to win you a fantasy title all by himself.

Quietly fantasy’s No. 4 quarterback over the past five weeks, Matt Ryan threw for 310 yards and two touchdowns in Week 15 even with Julio Jones (hip) sidelined. Julio remains uncertain for the fantasy finals, but Ryan’s matchup does not. The Saints are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to rival signal callers, and should bleed plenty of yards and points to Ryan in the no-longer intimidating Superdome. … Do Tony Romo’s Week 16 fantasy fortunes depend entirely on DeMarco Murray’s (hand) health? The answer is an emphatic no. Even with Murray dominating touches all season long, Romo has thrown for at least three scores in four of his past five starts, and five of his past seven. He’s tallied multiple touchdowns in 9-of-12 healthy games. A Murray absence would undoubtedly have Romo throwing more, but is not all-important for his fantasy finals outlook. … Fantasy’s No. 5 quarterback on the season, Ben Roethlisberger is averaging 382 yards over his past three starts. The Chiefs boast one of the league’s stingiest pass defenses, but will be hard pressed to keep Big Ben from top-10 numbers at home.

Mark Sanchez/Russell Wilson is perhaps the trickiest quarterback question of Week 16. If we’re talking floor, it’s Sanchez. If we’re talking ceiling, it’s Wilson. How to decide? Let’s take a look at the matchups. Sanchez is coming off two bitterly disappointing starts, but gets a Redskins defense imploding in nearly every phase. Jim Haslett’s unit has allowed a staggering 31:5 TD:INT ratio against, and is coughing up 8.2 yards per attempt. Sanchez has proven to have a limited ceiling as the Eagles try to mask his myriad deficiencies, but not even he can screw up a matchup this sweet. … Which brings us to Wilson. Fantasy’s No. 8 quarterback on the season, Wilson deserves a better finals week fate than QB11. But the Cardinals are allowing just the 21st most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and play particularly well at home. Working in Wilson’s favor is a game that should be close, and a Cards defense that limits points, but not passing yards. Arizona allows a weekly 260 yards through the air. … With only two scores over his past three starts, Ryan Tannehill has worked hard to make his mid-season hot streak a distant memory. Going up against a Vikings defense that shut down Matthew Stafford in Week 15, Tannehill’s QB1 case for the fantasy finals is flimsy.

Since bottoming out in the Chiefs’ Week 12 and 13 losses, Alex Smith has rebounded to average 295 yards passing over his past two starts. Finally making good use of Travis Kelce, Smith is a nice streaming option against a Steelers pass defense that hasn’t stopped anybody. … Cam Newton (back) will likely rise as long as the health reports continue to be positive. … Eli Manning is streamable as long as Odell Beckham is playing. … The matchup couldn’t be better for Robert Griffin III in an Eagles defense allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but his lack of rapport with coach Jay Gruden and absence of good film this season still make him an extremely-risky option. The theoretical ceiling is high, but the floor remains rock bottom. … Philip Rivers (chest) is banged up, missing Keenan Allen and has just one multi-TD effort in his past six starts. Fantasy’s QB11 on the season is a strict QB2 for Week 16. … Teddy Bridgewater is rolling, but isn’t much of a ceiling play on the road against a defense allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. … Johnny Manziel’s first NFL start couldn’t have gone any worse, and the matchup for his second is extremely poor. Manziel’s upside hasn’t disappeared overnight, but he’s more than established his downside.

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Week 16 Running Backs

RB Notes: Le'Veon Bell is on pace for 2,335 yards from scrimmage, which would rank sixth all time. The Chiefs, who are allowing 4.85 yards per carry, should help Bell in his quest for history. … Publicly frustrated by his usage in last week’s win over the Raiders, Jamaal Charles enters the fantasy finals angry. That, coupled with the fact that Andy Reid’s team has to win this game to keep its playoff hopes alive should lead to a motivated Charles being fed early and often against a Steelers defense allowing the sixth-highest YPC against (4.44). … C.J. Anderson enters the fantasy finals averaging 29 touches over his past four games. Although his effectiveness has waned the past two weeks — 2.86 yards per carry — his role should not. The Bengals’ defensive weakness is on the ground, and Denver appears truly committed to the run. Anderson has earned his RB1 status the hard way, and deserves the benefit of the doubt for the fantasy finals. … Wish Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West splitting work for an offense in chaos, neither can be trusted as an RB2 with everything on the line in Week 16.

Arian Foster enters Week 16 as fantasy's No. 2 running back by average points, with his weekly 19.5 barely trailing DeMarco Murray’s 19.6. No team is allowing fewer fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Ravens, but especially with the Texans’ quarterback situation in chaos, they are going to lean on their bellcow more than ever. Foster’s volume should be more than enough to make up for a lousy matchup. … Remember Eddie Lacy’s slow start? Fat Eddie is now the No. 7 running back on the season, and averaging a robust 4.63 yards per carry. His Week 16 matchup isn’t quite as juicy as it seems — the Bucs are allowing only 3.92 yards per carry — but Lacy has established matchup invulnerability. … Only two teams are allowing fewer fantasy points to rival runners than the Cardinals, but it’s less of a concern for Marshawn Lynch’s Week 16 status than you may think. The Seahawks aren’t losing this game, and they aren’t going to need to throw to win. Even if Beast Mode spends half his time running into brickwalls, he’s a lead-pipe lock for 20 touches, and likely much more. … Giovani Bernard is a rich man’s Shane Vereen.

Mark Ingram’s production has tailed off the past two weeks — 27 carries for just 102 yards (3.78 YPC) — but he boasts the most mouthwatering matchup of any runner for Week 16. No team is allowing more fantasy points to enemy backs than the Falcons, while their 80 receptions allowed to RBs (fifth most in the league) even puts Pierre Thomas on the FLEX radar. … The RB12 on the year, Joique Bell finds himself at No. 8 over the past five weeks. His best game of the season came on Thanksgiving, where he stung the Bears for 23/91/2 on the ground. His opponent for the fantasy finals? The Bears. This is one sequel that should be as good as the original. … LeSean McCoy’s season had appeared to turn a corner, but he’s managed just 114 scoreless yards on 33 carries (3.45) over his past two starts. For Week 16 he gets a Redskins defense allowing the second fewest fantasy points to running backs. Shady is obviously always a threat to go off, but his 2014 disappointment is beginning to look circular after an impressive middle.

Matt Forte is the No. 5 running back on the year, but with the Bears going in the gutter like few teams ever have, his reliability has dimmed. Although he continues to catch passes, Forte has just 34 carries for 110 yards (3.23 YPC) over his past three starts. That includes a five-carry, six-yard day against the Lions’ league-best run defense on Thanksgiving. Forte remains an RB1, but a sadly low-end one. … Jeremy Hill has made just six starts this season. That hasn’t stopped him from being the fantasy RB13, and entering Week 16 as the league’s No. 11 rusher (877 yards). The Broncos boast one of the league’s very best run defenses, but the Bengals have committed to Hill as their foundation back. With a floor of 18-20 touches, Hill is an RB1, even in tough matchups. … With DeMarco Murray it’s pretty simple: Avoid the risk in daily leagues, but reward the back in season-long formats. Murray has given new meaning to carrying teams this season. After looking surprisingly good in Wednesday’s practice, there’s little reason to believe he won’t be effective against the Colts’ leaky run defense, even with only one good hand. Murray finds himself at No. 13 because the risk is real, but so is the week-winning upside. You don’t bench Murray with everything on the line. … With a floor of 18-20 touches, Fred Jackson is a high-end RB2 against a Raiders defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs.

The Bills’ run defense has sprung leaks in recent weeks, while Latavius Murray’s role has crystallized. He’s an upside RB2 for the fantasy finals. … Yes Robert Griffin III is under center, but Alfred Morris’ matchup is middling in the Eagles. A low-ceiling option even on his good days, Morris is an RB2 thanks only to his 12-15 touch floor. … Slowly but surely wresting the Colts’ backfield away from Trent Richardson, Dan Herron offers a nice RB2 floor in what figures to be a high-scoring day at the dome in Dallas. … Andre Williams has rushed 176 times as a rookie. He’s averaged 3.22 yards. He’s virtually guaranteed for 15-18 touches in the absence of Rashad Jennings (ankle), but could easily be a liability if he doesn’t find paydirt against the Rams’ hot-and-cold run defense. … The back who will not die, Matt Asiata is a legit RB2/3 against the Dolphins’ crumbling run defense. … Doug Martin has had one good run this season. Just because it happened to come in Week 15 doesn’t mean he’s suddenly a desirable option for the fantasy finals. … The Pats’ backfield isn’t worth messing with in championship week. … Kerwynn Williams has shown surprisingly well the past two weeks, but lost a fumble late in Arizona’s Week 15 win over the Rams. His odds of having a good day against the Seahawks’ suffocating defense are slim.

Week 16 Receivers

WR Notes: Think Calvin Johnson has been a disappointment? You’re wrong. Johnson has averaged 13.8 fantasy points since returning from his ankle injury six games ago. That’s a number that would rank No. 7 on the season for receivers. Maybe not quite what you were expecting, but Megatron is still every bit a WR1. For the fantasy finals, he gets a Bears team he decked for 11/146/2 on Thanksgiving. Going up against perhaps the most-embarrassing defense in the league, Johnson is Week 16’s top receiver play. … Dez Bryant has nine touchdowns over his past seven games. Vontae Davis can’t slow him down. … Antonio Brown has at least eight catches in eight-straight games. Leading the league in both receptions and yards, Brown is third in receiving touchdowns. His floor is as high as anyone’s in recent memory. … Jordy Nelson is fourth in receiver fantasy points despite being “just” eighth in catches (83). That’s a man who maximizes his targets. … By now, you’ve seen all the crazy Odell Beckham statistics. No. 2 in average receiver fantasy points, Beckham is No. 10 in raw scoring despite missing four games, and only being a starter for seven. He’s a special player, one who’s going to make a Rams secondary prone to blown coverages pay.

If No. 6 seems outrageously low for Demaryius Thomas, that’s because it probably is. But you could actually make the argument it’s too high seeing as Peyton Manning has just three touchdowns over his past three games, and the Bengals are tied for the fewest passing scores allowed in football (14). Thomas’ track record is such that he can’t be any lower, but he’s not the slam dunk he should be for the fantasy finals. … Jeremy Maclin is living the good life for the fantasy finals. The Redskins have a 31:5 TD:INT ratio against. Opposing quarterbacks are essentially all Aaron Rodgers when they play Jim Haslett’s “defense.” Of the Redskins’ “top” three corners, none rank in the top 92 in Pro Football Focus’ ratings. Inherit the earth, Jeremy. … As long as T.Y. Hilton can get his hamstring in working order, he’s going to run wild in domed Dallas. … Randall Cobb is just the WR27 over the past five weeks. Does that mean he’s regressing or “due”? The latter isn’t a real thing, but a Tampa Bay defense that owns a 26:11 TD:INT ratio against has a way of making wideouts look “due.” Cobb is still averaging 6/85 during his “slump.” He remains a WR1.

Mike Evans is averaging just 4/39 since his biblical Weeks 9-11, but has scored four touchdowns in four games, keeping his WR1/2 value afloat. The Packers are not a good matchup for Evans, but Evans isn’t a good matchup for anybody. … Alshon Jeffery should be a surefire WR1 with Brandon Marshall lost for the season, but his prospects have dimmed significantly with the insertion of visor-wearer Jimmy Clausen under center. Marc Trestman is gambling he can pull McCownMagic™ out of anybody. Don’t be surprised if the hat has no rabbit, and Jeffery needs garbage time to get his numbers. … Peyton Manning’s decision to turn himself into a handoff machine has had quite the chilling effect on Emmanuel Sanders, limiting him to WR21 status over the past five weeks. Sanders and his 89/1,261/7 line remain a bet worth making, but his upside wasn’t what it was when he was reaving souls mid-season. … Averaging 8/84 over his past six games, Julian Edelman is up to WR17 status on the season. He’ll find the seams in the Jets’ undermanned secondary.

Roddy White is a locked-in WR2 regardless of Julio Jones’ (hip) health, but Harry Douglas will rise from WR4 to WR2 if his more-ballyhooed teammate misses his second-straight game. White catches a lot of flak for being more of a PPR all star than actual well-rounded receiver, but it’s undeniably impressive the way he always gets his numbers in relief duty. … Kelvin Benjamin gets a big boost if Joe Haden (shoulder) can’t go for the Browns. Even if Haden does play, Benjamin has six inches on him, and will be a WR2. … DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t exactly been catching passes from Johnny Unitas this season, but Thad Lewis or Case Keenum is going to be a problem. Hopkins has produced like a high-end WR2 all year, but will be of the lower-end variety for the fantasy finals. … DeSean Jackson’s production has gone in the gutter as his health has deteriorated and the Redskins’ quarterback situation has gone off the rails, but going up against Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher, you roll the WR2 dice on a wideout averaging a league-leading 19.1 yards per catch.

Golden Tate is an excellent floor play against a Bears defense deep into tee-time booking. … Benching Josh Gordon is a one-way ticket to regret, but the implosion of Cleveland’s offense renders him a WR2 instead of the top-five wideout he should be. … Jarvis Landry has caught at least five passes in seven-straight games, but his floor remains that of a WR3. … Torrey Smith’s knee remains a bit of a question mark, but he played 52-of-64 snaps in Week 15. He’s absent from the Week 16 injury report. Going up against a Texans defense that’s allowed the third-most fantasy points to enemy receivers, Torrey has big-time upside for the finals. … Charles Johnson is fantasy’s No. 24 receiver over the past five weeks. … Jordan Matthews has an A+ matchup in the Redskins, but averaging just 3.6 targets over his past three games, his floor has bottomed out. … A clear-out specialist, Malcom Floyd’s ceiling doesn’t increase all that much in the absence of Keenan Allen. … The WR31 over the past five weeks, Stedman Bailey isn’t a terrible WR3 dart throw. … Your guess amongst the Jaguars’ trio of Allen Hurns, Marqise Lee and Cecil Shorts is as good as mine.

Week 16 Tight Ends

TE Notes: Rob Gronkowski’s 1,093 receiving yards are good for 11th in the NFL. He’s on pace for 1,249, which wouldn’t quite equal his tight-end record of 1,327 from 2011, but would still be a monumental achievement for a player just one year removed from shredding his ACL. Gronk has been a man amongst boys all season. That won’t change against a Jets defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. … The reason Gronk has his own tier at the top? Because Jimmy Graham just hasn’t been the same as he fights through a shoulder injury. If there’s reason for hope, it’s that Graham’s 87 yards receiving against the Bears were his most since Week 4. Another good day should be in store against a Falcons team Graham got for 8/82 in Week 1. … Fantasy’s No. 4 tight end on the season, Greg Olsen has gone 20/182/1 over his past two games. The Browns have been stingy against tight ends, but so were the Bucs and Saints teams Olsen took on in Weeks 14 and 15.

Don’t look now, but Travis Kelce is fantasy’s No. 5 tight end over the past three weeks, and No. 9 on the season. He leads the Chiefs in receptions, receiving and catches of 20-plus yards. How’s that for “overhyped”? Another nice day should be in store against a Steelers defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends. … With only one touchdown over his past five games, Antonio Gates is just fantasy’s No. 12 tight end since Week 11. Not great, but he has 18 catches over his past three games, and the loss of Keenan Allen (collarbone) is going to free up a ton of targets in San Diego. The 49ers are middle of the road against tight ends. Gates is a rock-solid TE1 for the fantasy finals. … Julius Thomas’ 12 scores still lead all tight ends, but can you really trust him after the stunts the Broncos pulled in Weeks 14 and 15? This will almost certainly be the week Thomas is actually back, but with the Broncos’ offense continuing to go into a shell, and getting one of the league’s best pass defenses for Week 16, Thomas is just a touchdown-dependent TE1.

Something working in Jason Witten’s favor? DeMarco Murray’s (hand) potential limited status for Week 16. If Murray is on a snap count, the Cowboys will have to lean more on the pass, not only freeing up Witten from some of his blocking duties, but funneling more targets his way. … Delanie Walker is averaging four catches for 61 yards, but those numbers fall to 3.3/53 in Charlie Whitehurst’s three starts. Not a massive difference, but certainly enough to make Walker a lower-end TE1. It’s hard to know if a Kendall Wright (hand) absence would help or hurt Walker’s odds for the fantasy finals. … Dwayne Allen is the better touchdown bet, but Coby Fleener’s advantage in the catch, yardage and big-play departments gives him the narrow edge against a Cowboys defense that bleeds fantasy points to tight ends. … The Bills are the stingiest team in the league against tight ends, but continuing to operate as the Raiders’ only vaguely-consistent receiving threat, Mychal Rivera remains on the TE1 borderline. … Zach Ertz and Tim Wright’s matchups put them on the DFS dart throw radar. … The same goes for Ladarius Green (concussion) if he can get cleared. With Keenan Allen out of commission, the Chargers could be going with far more two-TE sets.

Week 16 Kickers

Week 16 Defense/Special Teams