Week 15 Rankings

Updated 12/14 at 2:40 PM ET. Removed No. 46 receiver Kendall Wright.

Updated 12/14 at 12:00 PM ET. Removed Andre Johnson. Added Torrey Smith. Moved Kendall Wright down (lack of information on status). Moved Harry Douglas up.

The move the Browns needed to make was so gobsmackingly obvious that it’s no surprise a football coach missed it. Men like Mike Pettine often specialize in grinding stubbornness. It can be an asset in a sport subject to over-the-top, round-the-clock media and fan obsession, but also a weakness that costs not only games, but seasons.

That may be the case for the Browns, who went from an optimistic 7-4 to gloomy 7-6 as they spun their wheels on benching Brian Hoyer for Johnny Manziel. Pettine’s outright refusal to make the move he had to make directly cost the Browns a victory in Week 14, and has Cleveland staring at a 12th straight year without a playoff appearance. But what’s done is done. The rookie head man has finally acknowledged reality and once again put his team in the best position to win. Call it “better late than never” for a club that can still theoretically crash the postseason party.

But just because starting Manziel is the right move for the Browns does not mean it’s the right move for your fantasy team. Unlike Pettine, you’re already in the playoffs if you’ve survived and advanced to Week 15. Now is not the time to get cute with a formula that has you two victories away from a trophy.

But there are some people Manziel may be right for. DFS players, for starters. A true dual-threat, Manziel offers an unusually high floor for someone making his first NFL start. Manziel is a legitimate threat to rush for 50-60 yards, and score a touchdown in the process. Russell Wilson owners will tell you just how valuable those modest ground numbers can be for a signal caller. Manziel also offers a tantalizing ceiling thanks to the presence of Josh Gordon. Go back and watch Manziel’s college tape to see just how willing he was to throw the ball up to Mike Evans. Manziel trusted his mountainous wideout to win 1-on-1s, and he was rewarded by near-weekly big plays. Manziel will have zero fear taking contested shots to his all-world No. 1 wideout.

Daily leaguers are not the only ones who could benefit from some Johnny Football in their lives. Manziel is an ideal fill in for Cam Newton owners bewildered by his off-the-field injury, or Matt Ryan mix-and-matchers fretting about his potential lack of Julio Jones. Manziel offers far-more upside than the usual waiver-wire warriors, such as a Torrey Smith-less Joe Flacco and potential weekly doomstone Andy Dalton. Ryan Fitzpatrick could be missing Andre Johnson, and Kyle Orton is at risk of an in-game benching.

Manziel’s downside is real. He’s an undersized, over-confident rookie making his first start against one of the league’s best pass defenses. That’s why even No. 15 is probably pushing the envelope. But there’s a reason Manziel was the No. 22 pick of May’s draft, and a reason he was must-watch football at Texas A&M. Don’t get fancy if you have an established QB1, but get excited if you have nothing to lose. Manziel just might steal you a championship.

Week 15 Quarterbacks

QB Notes: Andrew Luck has surpassed 30 fantasy points in 8-of-13 starts. That includes Week 6 against the Texans, where he dropped 32.2 in a 33-28 road victory. Look closely at Luck’s schedule and you’ll see that he’s been (strongly) aided by an unimposing slate of opponents, but he’s taken full advantage of it. Luck should roll in Week 15 before doing the same against the Cowboys in the fantasy finals. … Peyton Manning enters the fantasy semifinals averaging just 203 yards over his past three starts. His TD:INT ratio is a modest 6:2 in the same timeframe. What gives? Smart football, for one. The Broncos are diversifying their offense ahead of a playoff run where they’ll likely have to win in New England to make the Super Bowl. That means establishing a ground game that was lacking before C.J. Anderson took over in the backfield. The more opponents must respect Anderson, the easier it will be for Manning to drop the bombs we’ve grown accustomed to. Week 15 is a perfect time for Manning to start slinging it again, as the Chargers have identified “keep away” as their best shot of beating Denver the past two seasons. With possessions likely to be at a premium, Manning will throw more than enough against a defense that’s good, but not great.

You’re just as tired of the weekly “why you still have to start Drew Brees” speech as I am. But … you still have to start Drew Brees. Fantasy’s No. 4 quarterback, Brees gets a Bears defense allowing the most fake points to enemy quarterbacks. The Saints’ season has been a long, strange trip, but don’t make it any stranger by benching Brees when it matters most. … Aaron Rodgers is in the midst of a(nother) season for the ages, but on the road against a defense allowing the second fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, he’s “just” the No. 3 quarterback for Week 15. … Ben Roethlisberger has taken a circuitous route to QB5 status, but that’s where he finds himself with three games remaining. You never know when the next SteelersDud™ is around the bend, but Roethlisberger has blown by 29 fantasy points in four of his past six starts. The Falcons slowing him down on the Georgia Dome’s fast track would defy even SteelersLogic™.

The Week 15 “risk” for Tom Brady owners is that the Patriots take the air out of the ball against a Dolphins team getting pulverized by the run in recent weeks. But you don’t worry about a player who’s thrown for at least two touchdowns in nine straight starts. Even if it’s a LeGarrette Blount kind of day in Foxboro, Brady will get his scores. … Few things go as planned in fantasy football. Matthew Stafford’s revival with a soft schedule has been one of the exceptions, as he’s averaged 351 yards over the past two weeks, completing 60-of-79 throws (75.95 percent) for five touchdowns and zero picks. For Week 15 he gets a Vikings team that had trouble slowing Geno Smith last Sunday. Stafford’s apology tour will roll on. … Philip Rivers has just two multi-score games in his past six starts, but one of them came against the Broncos. He’s a high-floor, if not terribly high-ceiling, QB1 for Week 15. … Mark Sanchez has made six appearances this season. He’s tallied at least two touchdowns in five of them. He scored 23.7 fantasy points against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, and should at least match that for the sides’ rematch in Philly.

Tony Romo has produced at least three scores in three of his past four starts. The exception? His Thanksgiving dud against the Eagles. Romo will undoubtedly be better this Sunday, but averaging just 29 weekly attempts, his ceiling does not correspond to his floor. … The Saints are allowing the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks, but it will be a brave new world for Jay Cutler without Brandon Marshall. That, coupled with Cutler’s reliance on garbage time to amass his fantasy points makes him a far-riskier option than his to-date totals will tell you. … For Matt Ryan, it’s pretty simple. He’ll be a top-eight option if Julio Jones (hip) suits up at something resembling 100 percent. If not, Ryan will be on the QB1 borderline thanks only to a mouthwatering home matchup. … Russell Wilson is fantasy’s QB6, but even with the 49ers reeling, the odds that this weekend’s matchup turns into a high-scoring affair are slim to none. Wilson’s floor keeps him in the top 15, but his Week 15 ceiling wouldn’t befit a ballroom.

Even with Odell Beckham rampaging across America, Eli Manning is still just fantasy’s No. 19 quarterback over the past five weeks. That’s because he’s been held to fewer than 20 points in 4-of-5 starts. He has the right Week 15 matchup in a Redskins defense allowing the third most fantasy points to rival signal callers, but Manning can’t be considered a high-ceiling option. … Ryan Tannehill has followed up the best eight-game stretch of his career with the sort of two-game lull we were hoping he had grown out of. Tannehill has accounted for just one total score over his past two starts, and is averaging a measly 241 total yards. His matchup could scarcely be worse than the Patriots in New England. … Joe Flacco did just fine without Torrey Smith in Week 14, but that’s not a formula you can count on repeating against the Jags’ underrated pass rush. … The last time Andy Dalton faced the Browns, he had literally one of the worst starts in NFL history. He should be (much) better this time around, but why bother? … Whomever starts for the Redskins won’t be worth streaming in daily leagues. … Colin Kaepernick has gone seven-straight games without reaching 20 fantasy points. He won’t come close in Seattle.

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Week 15 Running Backs

RB Notes: Le'Veon Bell has 711 yards from scrimmage over his past three starts, a monumental number that has him within 13.4 fantasy points of DeMarco Murray’s running-back leading 253.8. Bell has more total yards the past three weeks than Bishop Sankey does all season. None of this is good news for the Falcons, who are allowing the most fake points to running backs. Sometimes dreams do come true for fantasy owners. … DeMarco Murray had his worst game of the season against the Eagles on Thanksgiving, but reading between the lines, the Cowboys sound determined to get him to 2,000 yards rushing. That means there should be more where his 41 Week 14 touches came from. Murray is a veritable guarantee for at least 100 yards from scrimmage. … Arian Foster continues to be unstoppable when healthy, and the Colts continue to be unable to stop the run. Indy is allowing 4.41 yards per carry, the eighth-worst mark in the league. Foster is averaging 3.0 yards after contact, the best number in the NFL if you throw out Roy Helu. He’s a matchup made in hell for a Colts defense missing seven tackles per week.

Jamaal Charles is fighting through ankle and knee issues, but should give it a go against a Raiders defense allowing the second most fantasy points to running backs. Currently averaging 5.22 yards per carry, Charles’ career mark is sitting at 5.53. That would go down as fourth best all time if Charles never played another snap. … It’s tempting to slide Matt Forte down the ranks with the Bears abandoning the run, but only three teams are allowing more fantasy points to running backs than the Saints. Forte also refuses to stop catching passes, with his 86 receptions checking in at No. 4 in the league. Forte’s 724 receiving yards are 33rd in football, and ahead of the likes of Brandon Marshall and Mike Wallace, amongst others. … LeSean McCoy got shut down by the Seahawks in Week 15, but averaged 132 yards from scrimmage in the three weeks prior. That includes 159 against Dallas in Week 13. Averaging 20 weekly carries, Shady is ready to carry teams into the fantasy finals. … C.J. Anderson is fantasy’s No. 2 back by average points over the past three weeks (24.6), getting the ball an average of 28.6 times in the process.

Justin Forsett opened training camp no better than third on the Ravens’ depth chart, but enters the season’s final three weeks as fantasy’s No. 8 back. Only DeMarco Murray and Le'Veon Bell have more yards on the ground, while Forsett’s 37 receptions are 10th amongst running backs. All this at the age of 29. Forsett should have a huge day against Jaguars run defense allowing 132.8 yards per game. … In the year of Le'Veon Bell and DeMarco Murray, no one has broken more tackles than Marshawn Lynch (68). You better believe Beast Mode will be angry against the 49ers. … Eddie Lacy’s hip is not a concern for Week 15. The Bills’ top-10 run defense is, but Lacy gets more than enough weekly volume to overcome tough opponents. … With DeAngelo Williams (hand) trending toward another absence, Jonathan Stewart will be a safe RB2 against a Bucs defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs. Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics suggest J-Stew has been the league's most “elusive” runner in 2014. … Ryan Mathews (leg) is suddenly questionable for Week 15. Branden Oliver would be back on the FLEX radar were Mathews to sit against the Broncos. … Out of nowhere Week 14 100-yard rusher Kerwynn Williams is a tough sell as an RB3 against the Rams’ elite defense.

LeGarrette Blount at No. 13: I’m scared too. But Blount’s Patriots résumé is one that suggests success against the Dolphins’ collapsing run defense. Miami’s formerly stout ground unit has been dismantled for 528 yards over the past three weeks, surrendering 5.87 yards per carry. You better believe the Pats are going to try to run it down their throat. Easily leading New England’s backfield in touches since his Week 12 arrival, Blount is a legit RB2 for Week 15. … Playing through an ankle injury, Rashad Jennings touched the ball just three times in New York’s win over the Titans. He’s absent from the Week 15 injury report, however, and ready for more of a “full load” in the words of Tom Coughlin. Andre Williams is coming off the best game of his rookie year, but there’s little reason to believe Jennings won’t receive an RB2 workload if healthy. … Lamar Miller’s agent isn’t the only one wondering why he’s not getting the ball more. Miller is averaging 4.82 yards per carry, but just 15 touches per game. Miller has RB1 talent, but is stuck in an RB2 role. … Latavius Murray’s Week 14 production (85 yards) was disappointing, but his workload wasn’t (25 touches). He’s a legit RB2 against the Chiefs’ bottom-barrel run defense, a unit he creamed in Week 12.

Terrance West went from a potential healthy scratch to starter for Cleveland’s Week 14 loss to the Colts. The guess is that it had more to do with Isaiah Crowell’s (hip) health than coach Mike Pettine wanting to be a fantasy contrarian, but it’s just something to keep in mind for Week 15. Practicing in full, Crowell is fully expected to reclaim chairman duties of Cleveland’s committee, a position made even more prestigious by the fact that Johnny Manziel should open up running lanes Brian Hoyer obviously didn’t command. … With Denard Robinson (foot) lost for the season, the Jags’ backfield is back in the hands of Toby Gerhart, Jordan Todman and perhaps Storm Johnson. Gerhart should reclaim No. 1 duties, but since he’s not claiming any of Shoelace’s talent, he’s a tough sell as anything more than an RB4, especially against a Ravens defense that erases the run. … What Alfred Morris and Chris Ivory lack in consistency, they make up for it in dream Week 15 matchups. Both are RB2s. … Bengals OC Hue Jackson has hinted he’s tired of his running-back committee. Everyone — including Bengals.com — believes he’s ready to lean on Jeremy Hill as his unquestioned lead back. Giovani Bernard has averaged just 3.18 yards per carry since his Week 12 return, and caught a disappointing six passes in three games.

Week 15 Receivers

WR Notes: Leading all receivers in fantasy points, Antonio Brown hasn’t been held below 74 yards all season, and has caught at least eight passes in seven-straight games. … Calvin Johnson is fantasy’s No. 5 receiver over the past five weeks, and No. 4 over the past three. The Vikings just got smoked by Percy Harvin and Eric Decker in Week 14. It might not be pretty on Sunday. … 1.1. That’s how many fantasy points Demaryius Thomas generated in Week 14 as he was slowed by an ankle injury. The good news is that he avoided setbacks, and is set to do “battle” with Chargers RCB Shareece Wright. Wright is 108-of-113 in Pro Football Focus’ cornerback ratings. … Averaging 11.3 weekly targets since Victor Cruz was lost for the season six games ago, Odell Beckham is fantasy’s No. 6 receiver on the year by average points. The Redskins’ pathetic secondary is going to be in a world of pain this weekend. … Jordy Nelson is one of just two wideouts averaging at least 15 fantasy points per game. The Bills have one of the league’s better pass defenses, but like everyone else, lack answers for Green Bay’s No. 1 receiver. His 12 touchdowns lead all wide receivers.

The Texans are allowing the second most fantasy points to receivers. One of the main reasons why? T.Y. Hilton destroyed them for 9/223/1 in Week 6. Coming off a 10/150/2 day against Joe Haden’s Browns, Hilton still isn’t getting enough respect as a truly elite fantasy wideout. … Dez Bryant is just fantasy’s No. 11 receiver on the season. Bryant is hard to leave out of the top five on a weekly basis, but the fact of the matter is there are simply more-deserving players right now. … Brandon Marshall averaged eight weekly targets. They’re going to be divvied up between Alshon Jeffery, Marquess Wilson, Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte. Just 2-3 more would boost Jeffery from high-end WR2 to no-brainer WR1. That’s what he is against a Saints defense allowing the seventh most fantasy points to receivers. As for Wilson, even 5-6 looks against New Orleans would be enough for WR3 numbers. Physically gifted, Wilson has a monster opportunity against Rob Ryan’s Bears-esque defense. Wilson is worth rolling the WR3 dice on over uninspiring veterans like Marques Colston and Reggie Wayne.

A.J. Green is averaging 132 yards over his past four games. Joe Haden probably isn’t going to be an issue. … Coming off one of the greatest Monday Night Football performances in history, Julio Jones now leads the league in receiving. He should be a top-three option for Week 15, but a hip injury has his status muddled. If Jones can get good news between now and Sunday, he’ll be an unstoppable force against Pittsburgh’s laughably-bad secondary. … Maybe it’s time you stop forgetting Jeremy Maclin is fantasy’s No. 8 receiver on the year. The Cowboys didn’t have an answer for Maclin on Thanksgiving, and won’t on Sunday, either. … Nine pass catchers have at least 10 touchdowns this season. Rookie Mike Evans is the only one who isn’t in at least his fourth season. Evans is a special player. … Fantasy’s No. 16 receiver on the season, DeAndre Hopkins could be in for a biblical day against the Colts if Andre Johnson (concussion) can’t go. As Evan Silva points out, the Texans get essentially nothing from their tight ends and sub-package wideouts. Hopkins is going to blow by his average of 7.4 targets. Even if Johnson plays, Hopkins will be a cinch top-18 option.

Filter out the noise, and Josh Gordon played a season-high 79.4 percent of the Browns’ snaps Sunday. The presence of Johnny Manziel can only mean good things for a WR1 waiting to explode. Gordon hasn’t been quite the savior fantasy owners were expecting, but don’t be surprised if Johnny Football sets about changing that. … Kelvin Benjamin had a nice Week 1 with Derek Anderson under center (6/92/1), but that’s not something to hang your hat on for Week 15. It’s a comforting fact, little more. It would be far from surprising if the Panthers’ entire offense went in the gutter. … Slowly getting healthier, Roddy White will be a threat for 15 targets if Julio Jones sits. … Off Revis Island, expect Keenan Allen to get back on the WR2 wagon. Allen averaged seven catches for 78 yards in Weeks 7-13. … Kenny Stills laid a huge egg against Josh Norman and the Panthers on Sunday, but is a strong bet to bounce back against a Bears “defense” allowing the eighth most fantasy points to receivers. Mel Tucker’s unit often allows opposing wideouts to run completely free.

Sammy Watkins finally got on track in Week 15, but is still a boom-or-bust option against a Packers pass defense that’s quietly been one of the league’s best. Of course, garbage time could change the calculus. … Julian Edelman is averaging eight receptions over his past five games. … Steve Smith Sr. caught 7-of-11 targets for 70 yards with Torrey Smith hobbled last weekend, and should be in for a similar WR3 performance against the Jaguars if Torrey sits, as expected. … Martavis Bryant’s seven touchdowns are tied for 22nd in the league even though he’s played only 224 snaps. That’s 114th amongst wideouts. That’s what you’d call a red-zone weapon. … Regardless of his health, DeSean Jackson will be a WR3 if he suits up for Week 15 thanks to Washington’s embarrassing quarterback imbroglio. … Donte Moncrief offers vaporous upside against the Texans, but is still very much subject to the whims of Reggie Wayne’s (triceps) health and a fickle coaching staff. He’s a top-36 bet, but has zero-catch downside. … Charles Johnson is fantasy’s No. 24 receiver over the past five weeks. … Kendall Wright (hand) will be a safe WR3 if he can give it a go. … Marqise Lee is an intriguing DFS option against the Ravens’ bottom-three secondary.

Week 15 Tight Ends

TE Notes: Rob Gronkowski leads all tight ends in yards (997), and is second in catches (73) and touchdowns (10). He’s averaging 12.3 fantasy points per game, which leads tight ends and would be tied for 14th amongst receivers. All this after tearing his ACL last December. Gronk is a freak of nature. … The bad news: Jimmy Graham has caught just 3-of-11 targets for 25 yards over his past two games. The really bad news? He’s had a zero-target game mixed in. It’s time for some good news. Graham gets it in his Week 15 matchup, a Bears defense getting bludgeoned by every position, but positively pulverized by tight ends. No team is allowing more fantasy points to the league’s seam stretchers. You can’t keep an elite TE1 down forever. Graham will have his revenge. … Julius Thomas was “active” for Week 14, but didn’t play a single snap. Either way, it was a step in the right direction for a player who’s still tied for the league lead in touchdowns (12) despite sitting each of the past three weeks.

Even as he played through a foot injury, Martellus Bennett soaked up looks in Brandon Marshall’s Week 14 absence, catching 12-of-15 passes for 84 yards. Fantasy's No. 5 tight end on the season has drawn an eye-popping 26 targets over his past two games. He’ll remain a point of emphasis for the Bears’ offense with Marshall sidelined. … Greg Olsen has caught at least five passes in each of his past four games, and 10-of-13 2014 contests. The absence of Cam Newton is a concern, but Olsen actually caught 8-of-11 looks from Derek Anderson for 83 yards and a score when Newton missed Week 1. That game came against the Bucs, whom the Panthers get again this Sunday. Fire up Olsen despite the specter of an Anderson meltdown. … Someone else adjusting to a new quarterback? Delanie Walker. Like Olsen, however, Walker has had previous 2014 success with his Week 15 signal caller. Jake Locker targeted Walker 26 times in Weeks 1-3, finding him for a 17/233/2 line. The Jets are a plum matchup. … The Dolphins allow the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. That means nothing to Rob Gronkowski, but it’s not the week to dart throw Tim Wright.

Travis Kelce has led the Chiefs in receiving each of the past four weeks. Of course, he’s amassed just 250 yards in the process, but coach Andy Reid appears to finally be getting the message. … Dwayne Allen or Coby Fleener? Returning from a two-game absence in Week 14, Allen caught just 1-of-3 targets for five yards. Fleener, meanwhile, went 5/56 on 10 looks. We’d expect Allen to be more involved in this week’s matchup with the Texans, but he’s still a touchdown-dependent option. Quietly fantasy’s No. 9 tight end on the season, Fleener gets the (slight) nod for Week 15. … Back from a month-long absence, Jordan Cameron caught four passes for 41 yards in last week’s loss to the Colts. Not an amazing day, but certainly reason for future optimism, especially with Johnny Manziel swooping in to jumpstart the Browns’ offense. The Bengals have been middle of the road against tight ends, allowing the 14th most fantasy points. … Especially with Dion Sims commanding looks in recent weeks, a banged up Charles Clay is barely worth the TE2 hassle. … Kyle Rudolph has averaged 2.75 targets since returning four games ago, turning them into just eight catches. Avoid.

Week 15 Kickers

Week 15 Defense/Special Teams

dall Wright down (lack of information on status). Moved Harry Douglas up.

The move the Browns needed to make was so gobsmackingly obvious that it’s no surprise a football coach missed it. Men like Mike Pettine often specialize in grinding stubbornness. It can be an asset in a sport subject to over-the-top, round-the-clock media and fan obsession, but also a weakness that costs not only games, but seasons.

That may be the case for the Browns, who went from an optimistic 7-4 to gloomy 7-6 as they spun their wheels on benching Brian Hoyer for Johnny Manziel. Pettine’s outright refusal to make the move he had to make directly cost the Browns a victory in Week 14, and has Cleveland staring at a 12th straight year without a playoff appearance. But what’s done is done. The rookie head man has finally acknowledged reality and once again put his team in the best position to win. Call it “better late than never” for a club that can still theoretically crash the postseason party.

But just because starting Manziel is the right move for the Browns does not mean it’s the right move for your fantasy team. Unlike Pettine, you’re already in the playoffs if you’ve survived and advanced to Week 15. Now is not the time to get cute with a formula that has you two victories away from a trophy.

But there are some people Manziel may be right for. DFS players, for starters. A true dual-threat, Manziel offers an unusually high floor for someone making his first NFL start. Manziel is a legitimate threat to rush for 50-60 yards, and score a touchdown in the process. Russell Wilson owners will tell you just how valuable those modest ground numbers can be for a signal caller. Manziel also offers a tantalizing ceiling thanks to the presence of Josh Gordon. Go back and watch Manziel’s college tape to see just how willing he was to throw the ball up to Mike Evans. Manziel trusted his mountainous wideout to win 1-on-1s, and he was rewarded by near-weekly big plays. Manziel will have zero fear taking contested shots to his all-world No. 1 wideout.

Daily leaguers are not the only ones who could benefit from some Johnny Football in their lives. Manziel is an ideal fill in for Cam Newton owners bewildered by his off-the-field injury, or Matt Ryan mix-and-matchers fretting about his potential lack of Julio Jones. Manziel offers far-more upside than the usual waiver-wire warriors, such as a Torrey Smith-less Joe Flacco and potential weekly doomstone Andy Dalton. Ryan Fitzpatrick could be missing Andre Johnson, and Kyle Orton is at risk of an in-game benching.

Manziel’s downside is real. He’s an undersized, over-confident rookie making his first start against one of the league’s best pass defenses. That’s why even No. 15 is probably pushing the envelope. But there’s a reason Manziel was the No. 22 pick of May’s draft, and a reason he was must-watch football at Texas A&M. Don’t get fancy if you have an established QB1, but get excited if you have nothing to lose. Manziel just might steal you a championship.

Week 15 Quarterbacks

QB Notes: Andrew Luck has surpassed 30 fantasy points in 8-of-13 starts. That includes Week 6 against the Texans, where he dropped 32.2 in a 33-28 road victory. Look closely at Luck’s schedule and you’ll see that he’s been (strongly) aided by an unimposing slate of opponents, but he’s taken full advantage of it. Luck should roll in Week 15 before doing the same against the Cowboys in the fantasy finals. … Peyton Manning enters the fantasy semifinals averaging just 203 yards over his past three starts. His TD:INT ratio is a modest 6:2 in the same timeframe. What gives? Smart football, for one. The Broncos are diversifying their offense ahead of a playoff run where they’ll likely have to win in New England to make the Super Bowl. That means establishing a ground game that was lacking before C.J. Anderson took over in the backfield. The more opponents must respect Anderson, the easier it will be for Manning to drop the bombs we’ve grown accustomed to. Week 15 is a perfect time for Manning to start slinging it again, as the Chargers have identified “keep away” as their best shot of beating Denver the past two seasons. With possessions likely to be at a premium, Manning will throw more than enough against a defense that’s good, but not great.

You’re just as tired of the weekly “why you still have to start Drew Brees” speech as I am. But … you still have to start Drew Brees. Fantasy’s No. 4 quarterback, Brees gets a Bears defense allowing the most fake points to enemy quarterbacks. The Saints’ season has been a long, strange trip, but don’t make it any stranger by benching Brees when it matters most. … Aaron Rodgers is in the midst of a(nother) season for the ages, but on the road against a defense allowing the second fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, he’s “just” the No. 3 quarterback for Week 15. … Ben Roethlisberger has taken a circuitous route to QB5 status, but that’s where he finds himself with three games remaining. You never know when the next SteelersDud™ is around the bend, but Roethlisberger has blown by 29 fantasy points in four of his past six starts. The Falcons slowing him down on the Georgia Dome’s fast track would defy even SteelersLogic™.

The Week 15 “risk” for Tom Brady owners is that the Patriots take the air out of the ball against a Dolphins team getting pulverized by the run in recent weeks. But you don’t worry about a player who’s thrown for at least two touchdowns in nine straight starts. Even if it’s a LeGarrette Blount kind of day in Foxboro, Brady will get his scores. … Few things go as planned in fantasy football. Matthew Stafford’s revival with a soft schedule has been one of the exceptions, as he’s averaged 351 yards over the past two weeks, completing 60-of-79 throws (75.95 percent) for five touchdowns and zero picks. For Week 15 he gets a Vikings team that had trouble slowing Geno Smith last Sunday. Stafford’s apology tour will roll on. … Philip Rivers has just two multi-score games in his past six starts, but one of them came against the Broncos. He’s a high-floor, if not terribly high-ceiling, QB1 for Week 15. … Mark Sanchez has made six appearances this season. He’s tallied at least two touchdowns in five of them. He scored 23.7 fantasy points against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, and should at least match that for the sides’ rematch in Philly.

Tony Romo has produced at least three scores in three of his past four starts. The exception? His Thanksgiving dud against the Eagles. Romo will undoubtedly be better this Sunday, but averaging just 29 weekly attempts, his ceiling does not correspond to his floor. … The Saints are allowing the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks, but it will be a brave new world for Jay Cutler without Brandon Marshall. That, coupled with Cutler’s reliance on garbage time to amass his fantasy points makes him a far-riskier option than his to-date totals will tell you. … For Matt Ryan, it’s pretty simple. He’ll be a top-eight option if Julio Jones (hip) suits up at something resembling 100 percent. If not, Ryan will be on the QB1 borderline thanks only to a mouthwatering home matchup. … Russell Wilson is fantasy’s QB6, but even with the 49ers reeling, the odds that this weekend’s matchup turns into a high-scoring affair are slim to none. Wilson’s floor keeps him in the top 15, but his Week 15 ceiling wouldn’t befit a ballroom.

Even with Odell Beckham rampaging across America, Eli Manning is still just fantasy’s No. 19 quarterback over the past five weeks. That’s because he’s been held to fewer than 20 points in 4-of-5 starts. He has the right Week 15 matchup in a Redskins defense allowing the third most fantasy points to rival signal callers, but Manning can’t be considered a high-ceiling option. … Ryan Tannehill has followed up the best eight-game stretch of his career with the sort of two-game lull we were hoping he had grown out of. Tannehill has accounted for just one total score over his past two starts, and is averaging a measly 241 total yards. His matchup could scarcely be worse than the Patriots in New England. … Joe Flacco did just fine without Torrey Smith in Week 14, but that’s not a formula you can count on repeating against the Jags’ underrated pass rush. … The last time Andy Dalton faced the Browns, he had literally one of the worst starts in NFL history. He should be (much) better this time around, but why bother? … Whomever starts for the Redskins won’t be worth streaming in daily leagues. … Colin Kaepernick has gone seven-straight games without reaching 20 fantasy points. He won’t come close in Seattle.

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Week 15 Running Backs

RB Notes: Le'Veon Bell has 711 yards from scrimmage over his past three starts, a monumental number that has him within 13.4 fantasy points of DeMarco Murray’s running-back leading 253.8. Bell has more total yards the past three weeks than Bishop Sankey does all season. None of this is good news for the Falcons, who are allowing the most fake points to running backs. Sometimes dreams do come true for fantasy owners. … DeMarco Murray had his worst game of the season against the Eagles on Thanksgiving, but reading between the lines, the Cowboys sound determined to get him to 2,000 yards rushing. That means there should be more where his 41 Week 14 touches came from. Murray is a veritable guarantee for at least 100 yards from scrimmage. … Arian Foster continues to be unstoppable when healthy, and the Colts continue to be unable to stop the run. Indy is allowing 4.41 yards per carry, the eighth-worst mark in the league. Foster is averaging 3.0 yards after contact, the best number in the NFL if you throw out Roy Helu. He’s a matchup made in hell for a Colts defense missing seven tackles per week.

Jamaal Charles is fighting through ankle and knee issues, but should give it a go against a Raiders defense allowing the second most fantasy points to running backs. Currently averaging 5.22 yards per carry, Charles’ career mark is sitting at 5.53. That would go down as fourth best all time if Charles never played another snap. … It’s tempting to slide Matt Forte down the ranks with the Bears abandoning the run, but only three teams are allowing more fantasy points to running backs than the Saints. Forte also refuses to stop catching passes, with his 86 receptions checking in at No. 4 in the league. Forte’s 724 receiving yards are 33rd in football, and ahead of the likes of Brandon Marshall and Mike Wallace, amongst others. … LeSean McCoy got shut down by the Seahawks in Week 15, but averaged 132 yards from scrimmage in the three weeks prior. That includes 159 against Dallas in Week 13. Averaging 20 weekly carries, Shady is ready to carry teams into the fantasy finals. … C.J. Anderson is fantasy’s No. 2 back by average points over the past three weeks (24.6), getting the ball an average of 28.6 times in the process.

Justin Forsett opened training camp no better than third on the Ravens’ depth chart, but enters the season’s final three weeks as fantasy’s No. 8 back. Only DeMarco Murray and Le'Veon Bell have more yards on the ground, while Forsett’s 37 receptions are 10th amongst running backs. All this at the age of 29. Forsett should have a huge day against Jaguars run defense allowing 132.8 yards per game. … In the year of Le'Veon Bell and DeMarco Murray, no one has broken more tackles than Marshawn Lynch (68). You better believe Beast Mode will be angry against the 49ers. … Eddie Lacy’s hip is not a concern for Week 15. The Bills’ top-10 run defense is, but Lacy gets more than enough weekly volume to overcome tough opponents. … With DeAngelo Williams (hand) trending toward another absence, Jonathan Stewart will be a safe RB2 against a Bucs defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs. Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics suggest J-Stew has been the league's most “elusive” runner in 2014. … Ryan Mathews (leg) is suddenly questionable for Week 15. Branden Oliver would be back on the FLEX radar were Mathews to sit against the Broncos. … Out of nowhere Week 14 100-yard rusher Kerwynn Williams is a tough sell as an RB3 against the Rams’ elite defense.

LeGarrette Blount at No. 13: I’m scared too. But Blount’s Patriots résumé is one that suggests success against the Dolphins’ collapsing run defense. Miami’s formerly stout ground unit has been dismantled for 528 yards over the past three weeks, surrendering 5.87 yards per carry. You better believe the Pats are going to try to run it down their throat. Easily leading New England’s backfield in touches since his Week 12 arrival, Blount is a legit RB2 for Week 15. … Playing through an ankle injury, Rashad Jennings touched the ball just three times in New York’s win over the Titans. He’s absent from the Week 15 injury report, however, and ready for more of a “full load” in the words of Tom Coughlin. Andre Williams is coming off the best game of his rookie year, but there’s little reason to believe Jennings won’t receive an RB2 workload if healthy. … Lamar Miller’s agent isn’t the only one wondering why he’s not getting the ball more. Miller is averaging 4.82 yards per carry, but just 15 touches per game. Miller has RB1 talent, but is stuck in an RB2 role. … Latavius Murray’s Week 14 production (85 yards) was disappointing, but his workload wasn’t (25 touches). He’s a legit RB2 against the Chiefs’ bottom-barrel run defense, a unit he creamed in Week 12.

Terrance West went from a potential healthy scratch to starter for Cleveland’s Week 14 loss to the Colts. The guess is that it had more to do with Isaiah Crowell’s (hip) health than coach Mike Pettine wanting to be a fantasy contrarian, but it’s just something to keep in mind for Week 15. Practicing in full, Crowell is fully expected to reclaim chairman duties of Cleveland’s committee, a position made even more prestigious by the fact that Johnny Manziel should open up running lanes Brian Hoyer obviously didn’t command. … With Denard Robinson (foot) lost for the season, the Jags’ backfield is back in the hands of Toby Gerhart, Jordan Todman and perhaps Storm Johnson. Gerhart should reclaim No. 1 duties, but since he’s not claiming any of Shoelace’s talent, he’s a tough sell as anything more than an RB4, especially against a Ravens defense that erases the run. … What Alfred Morris and Chris Ivory lack in consistency, they make up for it in dream Week 15 matchups. Both are RB2s. … Bengals OC Hue Jackson has hinted he’s tired of his running-back committee. Everyone — including Bengals.com — believes he’s ready to lean on Jeremy Hill as his unquestioned lead back. Giovani Bernard has averaged just 3.18 yards per carry since his Week 12 return, and caught a disappointing six passes in three games.

Week 15 Receivers

WR Notes: Leading all receivers in fantasy points, Antonio Brown hasn’t been held below 74 yards all season, and has caught at least eight passes in seven-straight games. … Calvin Johnson is fantasy’s No. 5 receiver over the past five weeks, and No. 4 over the past three. The Vikings just got smoked by Percy Harvin and Eric Decker in Week 14. It might not be pretty on Sunday. … 1.1. That’s how many fantasy points Demaryius Thomas generated in Week 14 as he was slowed by an ankle injury. The good news is that he avoided setbacks, and is set to do “battle” with Chargers RCB Shareece Wright. Wright is 108-of-113 in Pro Football Focus’ cornerback ratings. … Averaging 11.3 weekly targets since Victor Cruz was lost for the season six games ago, Odell Beckham is fantasy’s No. 6 receiver on the year by average points. The Redskins’ pathetic secondary is going to be in a world of pain this weekend. … Jordy Nelson is one of just two wideouts averaging at least 15 fantasy points per game. The Bills have one of the league’s better pass defenses, but like everyone else, lack answers for Green Bay’s No. 1 receiver. His 12 touchdowns lead all wide receivers.

The Texans are allowing the second most fantasy points to receivers. One of the main reasons why? T.Y. Hilton destroyed them for 9/223/1 in Week 6. Coming off a 10/150/2 day against Joe Haden’s Browns, Hilton still isn’t getting enough respect as a truly elite fantasy wideout. … Dez Bryant is just fantasy’s No. 11 receiver on the season. Bryant is hard to leave out of the top five on a weekly basis, but the fact of the matter is there are simply more-deserving players right now. … Brandon Marshall averaged eight weekly targets. They’re going to be divvied up between Alshon Jeffery, Marquess Wilson, Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte. Just 2-3 more would boost Jeffery from high-end WR2 to no-brainer WR1. That’s what he is against a Saints defense allowing the seventh most fantasy points to receivers. As for Wilson, even 5-6 looks against New Orleans would be enough for WR3 numbers. Physically gifted, Wilson has a monster opportunity against Rob Ryan’s Bears-esque defense. Wilson is worth rolling the WR3 dice on over uninspiring veterans like Marques Colston and Reggie Wayne.

A.J. Green is averaging 132 yards over his past four games. Joe Haden probably isn’t going to be an issue. … Coming off one of the greatest Monday Night Football performances in history, Julio Jones now leads the league in receiving. He should be a top-three option for Week 15, but a hip injury has his status muddled. If Jones can get good news between now and Sunday, he’ll be an unstoppable force against Pittsburgh’s laughably-bad secondary. … Maybe it’s time you stop forgetting Jeremy Maclin is fantasy’s No. 8 receiver on the year. The Cowboys didn’t have an answer for Maclin on Thanksgiving, and won’t on Sunday, either. … Nine pass catchers have at least 10 touchdowns this season. Rookie Mike Evans is the only one who isn’t in at least his fourth season. Evans is a special player. … Fantasy’s No. 16 receiver on the season, DeAndre Hopkins could be in for a biblical day against the Colts if Andre Johnson (concussion) can’t go. As Evan Silva points out, the Texans get essentially nothing from their tight ends and sub-package wideouts. Hopkins is going to blow by his average of 7.4 targets. Even if Johnson plays, Hopkins will be a cinch top-18 option.

Filter out the noise, and Josh Gordon played a season-high 79.4 percent of the Browns’ snaps Sunday. The presence of Johnny Manziel can only mean good things for a WR1 waiting to explode. Gordon hasn’t been quite the savior fantasy owners were expecting, but don’t be surprised if Johnny Football sets about changing that. … Kelvin Benjamin had a nice Week 1 with Derek Anderson under center (6/92/1), but that’s not something to hang your hat on for Week 15. It’s a comforting fact, little more. It would be far from surprising if the Panthers’ entire offense went in the gutter. … Slowly getting healthier, Roddy White will be a threat for 15 targets if Julio Jones sits. … Off Revis Island, expect Keenan Allen to get back on the WR2 wagon. Allen averaged seven catches for 78 yards in Weeks 7-13. … Kenny Stills laid a huge egg against Josh Norman and the Panthers on Sunday, but is a strong bet to bounce back against a Bears “defense” allowing the eighth most fantasy points to receivers. Mel Tucker’s unit often allows opposing wideouts to run completely free.

Sammy Watkins finally got on track in Week 15, but is still a boom-or-bust option against a Packers pass defense that’s quietly been one of the league’s best. Of course, garbage time could change the calculus. … Julian Edelman is averaging eight receptions over his past five games. … Steve Smith Sr. caught 7-of-11 targets for 70 yards with Torrey Smith hobbled last weekend, and should be in for a similar WR3 performance against the Jaguars if Torrey sits, as expected. … Martavis Bryant’s seven touchdowns are tied for 22nd in the league even though he’s played only 224 snaps. That’s 114th amongst wideouts. That’s what you’d call a red-zone weapon. … Regardless of his health, DeSean Jackson will be a WR3 if he suits up for Week 15 thanks to Washington’s embarrassing quarterback imbroglio. … Donte Moncrief offers vaporous upside against the Texans, but is still very much subject to the whims of Reggie Wayne’s (triceps) health and a fickle coaching staff. He’s a top-36 bet, but has zero-catch downside. … Charles Johnson is fantasy’s No. 24 receiver over the past five weeks. … Kendall Wright (hand) will be a safe WR3 if he can give it a go. … Marqise Lee is an intriguing DFS option against the Ravens’ bottom-three secondary.

Week 15 Tight Ends

TE Notes: Rob Gronkowski leads all tight ends in yards (997), and is second in catches (73) and touchdowns (10). He’s averaging 12.3 fantasy points per game, which leads tight ends and would be tied for 14th amongst receivers. All this after tearing his ACL last December. Gronk is a freak of nature. … The bad news: Jimmy Graham has caught just 3-of-11 targets for 25 yards over his past two games. The really bad news? He’s had a zero-target game mixed in. It’s time for some good news. Graham gets it in his Week 15 matchup, a Bears defense getting bludgeoned by every position, but positively pulverized by tight ends. No team is allowing more fantasy points to the league’s seam stretchers. You can’t keep an elite TE1 down forever. Graham will have his revenge. … Julius Thomas was “active” for Week 14, but didn’t play a single snap. Either way, it was a step in the right direction for a player who’s still tied for the league lead in touchdowns (12) despite sitting each of the past three weeks.

Even as he played through a foot injury, Martellus Bennett soaked up looks in Brandon Marshall’s Week 14 absence, catching 12-of-15 passes for 84 yards. Fantasy's No. 5 tight end on the season has drawn an eye-popping 26 targets over his past two games. He’ll remain a point of emphasis for the Bears’ offense with Marshall sidelined. … Greg Olsen has caught at least five passes in each of his past four games, and 10-of-13 2014 contests. The absence of Cam Newton is a concern, but Olsen actually caught 8-of-11 looks from Derek Anderson for 83 yards and a score when Newton missed Week 1. That game came against the Bucs, whom the Panthers get again this Sunday. Fire up Olsen despite the specter of an Anderson meltdown. … Someone else adjusting to a new quarterback? Delanie Walker. Like Olsen, however, Walker has had previous 2014 success with his Week 15 signal caller. Jake Locker targeted Walker 26 times in Weeks 1-3, finding him for a 17/233/2 line. The Jets are a plum matchup. … The Dolphins allow the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. That means nothing to Rob Gronkowski, but it’s not the week to dart throw Tim Wright.

Travis Kelce has led the Chiefs in receiving each of the past four weeks. Of course, he’s amassed just 250 yards in the process, but coach Andy Reid appears to finally be getting the message. … Dwayne Allen or Coby Fleener? Returning from a two-game absence in Week 14, Allen caught just 1-of-3 targets for five yards. Fleener, meanwhile, went 5/56 on 10 looks. We’d expect Allen to be more involved in this week’s matchup with the Texans, but he’s still a touchdown-dependent option. Quietly fantasy’s No. 9 tight end on the season, Fleener gets the (slight) nod for Week 15. … Back from a month-long absence, Jordan Cameron caught four passes for 41 yards in last week’s loss to the Colts. Not an amazing day, but certainly reason for future optimism, especially with Johnny Manziel swooping in to jumpstart the Browns’ offense. The Bengals have been middle of the road against tight ends, allowing the 14th most fantasy points. … Especially with Dion Sims commanding looks in recent weeks, a banged up Charles Clay is barely worth the TE2 hassle. … Kyle Rudolph has averaged 2.75 targets since returning four games ago, turning them into just eight catches. Avoid.

Week 15 Kickers

Week 15 Defense/Special Teams