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Week 10 Starts/Sits: Not your average Joe

Brandon Funston

Just one more six-team bye week for fantasy owners to endure, and this one is a particularly rough one, with the top two offenses in the league (Indy and New England) sitting out. With pickings slim, here's the lowdown on some players that I think look better or worse than usual this week:

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STARTS

QB – Joe Flacco, Bal vs. Ten – Flacco lands at No. 15 in our QB rankings this week, but I'm the clear bullish outlier, slotting the Ravens' signal caller at No. 10. His matchup doesn't scare me - he's at home against a Titans defense that ProFootballFocus grades out as No. 20 in pass coverage, that despite seven of their nine opponents ranking in the bottom 14 in fantasy points per game at the QB position. And Flacco is averaging a healthy 2.0 TD passes to go with 270.7 passing yards in his past six games. In a week in which Andrew Luck, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers are on bye, I definitely see a path to the top 10 for Flacco.

RB – Steven Jackson, Atl at TB – When last we saw S-Jax, he picked up 60 yards and a TD on 18 carries against Detroit before heading into his Week 9 bye. That may not seem like much, but it amounted to the best fantasy rushing production by a RB against the Lions this season. And in his previous meeting with the Bucs (Week 3), he posted similar totals (54 rushing yards and a TD). With an expected workload of 15-plus carries against a defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the RB position, Jackson should be able to once again find his way to a more than serviceable (albeit, unspectacular) 12-plus fantasy points.

RB – Chris Polk, Phi vs Car –  Here's your Hail Mary, I'm-in-dire-bye-week-straits, plug-n-play. Last week, Polk picked up eight carries while backing up Shady McCoy, and he turned those totes into a tidy 50 yards and a TD. With Mark Sanchez starting at QB for the Eagles this week, I'd expect the team to be a little more ground heavy on offense - I don't think it was a coincidence that Philly running backs handled their biggest workload of the year in Week 9 with Sanchez taking over for three quarters of relief work. With that in mind, I wouldn't be surprised to see Polk land another 8-10 carries on Monday night against a Carolina defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the RB position. A powerful runner with good speed and versatility - he's turned 27 career touches into 223 total yards and four touchdowns (he also has a return TD this season) - Polk could find himself back in the RB top 25 this week with numbers similar to what he posted in Week 9.

WR – Kenny Britt, StL at Ari – Britt had just 32 yards at San Francisco in Week 9, but he found the end zone, leading him to a top 30 fantasy finish at the WR position. With Brian Quick out for the season with a shoulder injury, Britt should regularly lead the Rams in fantasy receiving production down the stretch, and this week he faces an Arizona defense that has allowed 11 wideouts to finish 31st or better in a given week in fantasy scoring at the WR position. And that's where I have Britt ranked this week (31st). Make sure to consider his strong WR3 upside.

WR – John Brown, Ari vs. StL – Like Polk, here's another deep Flex-play flyer. Brown faces a St. Louis defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the WR position. And the key for Brown is that he gets to face them at University of Phoenix Stadium, where he has scored all four of his touchdowns this season. In fact, his 12.1 fantasy PPG ranks him 13th among wide receivers in home contests. I have Brown slotted in as a WR3 this week.

TE - Owen Daniels, Bal vs Ten – Daniels is coming off a solid 53-yard effort against Pittsburgh in Week 9, and that's right at his yards per game average over his past four games. And in his past two contests, Joe Flacco has really turned his attention to Daniels, targeting the veteran tight end nine times in each game. Facing a Tennessee defense that has been generous to the TE position, and that Daniels knows well from his days in Houston (he's scored in two of his past three meetings with the Titans), I think there's a good shot for him to finish inside the top 10 among fantasy tight ends.

SITS

QB – Jay Cutler, Chi at GB –  I already talked some trash about Cutler in this week's Dissenting Opinions, but I'll reiterate my feelings here since I'm such a bearish outlier in the rankings compared to my colleagues. Basically, I'm buying the history card in this one. Cutler has been so god-awful at Lambeau Field that I think it's become a mental malady. In his three trips to Lambeau, he's averaged just 190 passing yards and has a 2:10 TD-to-INT ratio (10 INTs in three games!). And it's not like Cutler heads there with a hot hand, as he's ranked No. 17 among quarterbacks in fantasy PPG over his past three contests. As for the Green Bay defense, it has been strong against the pass this season, allowing the seventh-lowest QB Rating (82.1) and ranking seventh in takeaways per game. Expect more sideline drama for Cutler this week.


RB – Ronnie Hillman, Den at Oak – Ok, I get it. Sitting Hillman in a week when six teams (and running backs like Arian Foster, Ahmad Bradshaw, Alfred Morris, et al) are on bye is not going to be reasonable for many owners. But I think this is a case where the matchup might be too good for Hillman's own good. Since Peyton Manning arrived in Denver, the Broncos have faced the Raiders four times, winning by an average margin of 20 points (no game closer than 13 points). With the undersized Hillman doing yeoman's work over the past month, averaging 21.3 touches over the past four games, this matchup sets up well for Hillman to get some rest. An early lead could mean more Juwan Thompson and Montee Ball, who could get his feet wet in his return from a groin injury. Hillman will probably have to get his numbers early in this one if he's going to deliver a top 20 RB day, because I doubt he'll see much action in garbage time.

RB – Reggie Bush, Det vs Mia – The Lions will welcome Bush back from an ankle injury this week, but fantasy owners may want to consider keeping him sidelined. After all, Bush has delivered more than 6.5 fantasy points just once in six games this season, so he had reached a bench-until-signs-of-life point even before sitting out with the injury. And the matchup with Miami doesn't do him any favors, as the Dolphins have allowed just 3.8 YPC to the RB position, and have allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards to running backs. And with Theo Riddick playing so well in Bush's absence, the expectations are that the two will split the usual complementary role to Joique Bell in the Lions backfield. It's tough to find a silver lining for Bush owners this week.

WR – Michael Crabtree, SF at NO – One of the most overrated fantasy commodities on the WR market, Crabtree has (amazingly) the 25th-highest starting percentage among wide receivers this week. This despite the fact that he's finished with less than five fantasy points in four of his past five contests. And the fact remains that he plays for one of the most conservative offenses in the league, as the 49ers average the fifth-fewest pass attempts per game. And that small passing pie is being divided nearly equally between Anquan Boldin, Crabtree and Stevie Johnson (and sometimes Brandon Lloyd even steals a slice). Sure, the matchup against the Saints looks good on paper, but just ask Jordy Nelson and Kelvin Benjamin owners how that matchup treated them the past couple weeks.

WR – Rueben Randle, NYG at Sea –  Randle lands at 34th among most-started receivers this week and, like Crabtree, he's massively overrated. People always point to his targets (especially in the red zone) when playing up his potential. But when you're ranked 20th among receivers in targets, but land outside the top 50 in fantasy production at the position, there's an obvious disconnect going on. Rookie Odell Beckham Jr. is the obvious star talent in the Giants passing game, and Randle is only a JAG (Just a Guy). The fact that Randle is still often being ranked ahead of Beckham in weekly rankings is a joke. I'd play Beckham this week against a tough Seahawks secondary. But Randle, who posted a goose egg at Seattle in '13? Forget about it.

TE -  Zach Ertz, Phi vs. Car – Ertz was my choice here against Houston last week, and that was with the idea that Nick Foles would be his QB for the entire game. The fact that Mark Sanchez filled in for three quarters of the contest and Ertz only mustered one catch for four yards makes Ertz persona non grata in fantasy circles. Sure, Carolina has been pretty good at limiting opposing tight ends (12th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position), but this is more about Ertz delivering fewer than five fantasy points in five of his past six games, with the worst of those efforts coming last week playing with a new QB, one that will once again be behind center this week.