Week 10 Sleepers
Another week with six teams on their bye, and that includes the Texans, Colts, Vikings, Patriots, Chargers, and Redskins. So, there are plenty of lineup holes to be filled Sunday. We still may have a few shootouts on our hands, however, with Vegas projecting CAR at PHI (48), SF at NO (49), DEN at OAK (49), and CHI at GB (53.5) with high over-unders. There’s a mix of year-long and daily options below, with Player X’s FanDuel salary in parentheses. In this space, I like to hit on quarterbacks under $8,000, value in the backfield, and keep it around $6,000 for receivers and tight ends. With Jeremy Hill’s weekly dirt-cheap salary being taken from us after last week’s blowup, I had to go in a different direction at running back. We’re 10 weeks into the season. We all know the deal with Sleepers. Let’s get to it.
QB Matt Ryan at Bucs ($7800): I’ve gotten a lot of questions on Matt Ryan over the past few weeks, so I know owners are down on him. But back in the U.S. following the London trip in Week 8 and coming off the bye, people are sleeping on Ryan. The only concern we have here is the Falcons are on the road. Fortunately, it’s in Tampa Bay, a pleasant environment barring rain. The Bucs’ pass defense has been awful all year, surrendering the second-most passing touchdowns behind only the Jets. Granted, Ryan mustered up just five passing touchdowns in October. But this is the perfect matchup to get him out of his funk. Ryan is a top-end QB1 option.
QB Cam Newton at Eagles ($7700): The Panthers are coming off a mini-bye, having played last Thursday night and not playing until Monday night. Newton put up a dud against the Saints and was without the left side of his offensive line. LT Byron Bell, who’s no savior by any stretch of the imagination but is at least better than fill-in David Foucault, and LG Amini Silatolu should be back against Philadelphia. The Eagles have a bottom-third pass defense in terms of yards, and they’ve also allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Monday night’s game is a prime time for Newton to get out of his slump. Newton, along with Ryan, makes for a fine contrarian play on FanDuel, as owners will likely be scared off by down performances of late.
QB Mark Sanchez vs. Panthers ($6600): Sanchez was the hot pickup at quarterback this week. We’re going to see if Nick Foles was more a product of coach Chip Kelly’s offense, and most believe that to be the case. Kelly comes off as a coach who can simply plug in quarterbacks and still keep his offense chugging downfield. Enter Sanchez. The Eagles are one of the more high-paced offenses in the league, so there are a ton of plays being run. More plays means more opportunities. The Panthers have been benching and un-benching cornerbacks all season, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Sanchez has QB1 upside.
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RB Bobby Rainey vs. Falcons ($6700): Back to the Rainey well we go. After he ripped off 121 yards last week as the clear-cut feature back, we may as well fire him up again versus Atlanta’s league-worst run defense. Doug Martin (ankle) remains sidelined and even though Charles Sims (ankle) is set to make his season debut, I’d expect the Bucs to merely ease him into action. Rainey has proven time and again that he can both run the rock and catch it out of the backfield. The Falcons are surrendering yards in every which way possible. Coach Lovie Smith likes his veterans, making me believe Rainey is going to be the lead dog Sunday. I’m not chasing Sims, yet. Rainey is a borderline RB1/2 at a discount price.
RB Justin Forsett vs. Titans ($6500): Still fifth in the NFL in rushing yards, Forsett hasn’t found the end zone since Week 5. The Titans have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points, fifth-most yards, and third-most touchdowns to running backs. Forsett couldn’t ask for a much better matchup after a Week 9 dud against the Steelers. The good thing about Forsett is that even if he gets bottled up on the ground, he still contributes as a pass catcher. Also working in Forsett’s favor is Lorenzo Taliaferro’s lost fumble last week. Expect the Ravens to bounce back against the lowly Titans as 10-point favorites, leaving plenty of work for Forsett. He’s a surefire RB2 with RB1 upside.
RB Tre Mason at Cardinals ($5400): Mason isn’t a play for the faint of heart with the Cardinals fielding the league’s No. 1 fantasy run defense. But we’re not buying coach Jeff Fisher’s weekly talk of a committee approach in the backfield. Mason has proven he’s the best runner in St. Louis. While it’s an extremely tough matchup on paper, give Fisher credit for one thing. He knows how to get his teams up and competitive for division games. Minus Brian Quick, the Rams are built to run the ball and balance it out with a short passing attack. Look for Mason to see 15-18 carries. He’s a low-end RB2 and not one I’d particularly lean toward playing in DFS. But in a week with six teams off, there are worse options than Mason.
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WR Allen Robinson vs. Cowboys ($6400) We’re all still waiting for that monster game from Robinson. I still love this tweet from Davis Mattek: “Allen Robinson is Dez Bryant with a boring name and boring alma mater.” That’s gold. And it’s true. People simply haven’t gotten around to Robinson because he’s yet to have that breakout performance and plays in Jacksonville. With Cecil Shorts re-injuring his hamstring in Wednesday’s practice and missing Thursday’s altogether, he’s looking extremely iffy for Sunday. Shorts’ seven weekly targets need to go to someone, and I’d expect Robinson and Clay Harbor to split them, since Shorts has been working mostly near the line of scrimmage in 2014. Robinson already sees over eight looks per game. The Jaguars like to get the ball in his hands quickly and let him do work post-catch. Couple that with the Cowboys’ cornerbacks’ inability to tackle — Brandon Carr, Sterling Moore, and Orlando Scandrick have combined to miss 16 tackles — and we may just get that 100-yard effort from Robinson.
WR Justin Hunter at Ravens ($5400): A frequent member of my weekly Sleepers column. I know you guys are sick of hearing about Hunter, and all of us are just as tired of talking him up. But the matchup doesn’t get much better. The Ravens just lost RCB Jimmy Smith (foot) for the season. He was easily the glue holding this defensive backfield together. Lardarius Webb has been terrible, and the Ravens are down to career special teamer Danny Gorrer and some young pup named Tramain Jacobs behind Webb. In Zach Mettenberger’s first start, Hunter saw a season-high 10 targets. The Titans then went on their bye week and gave Mettenberger a “ton” of reps. These two already have a previous connection from the preseason. As 10-point underdogs, look for the Titans to air it out Sunday. Hunter just needs to catch the ball. Something he’s had trouble with in the NFL. It’s still hard not to love Hunter as a high-upside WR3.
WR Davante Adams vs. Bears ($5200): Bears-Packers on Sunday Night Football has the highest projected over-under of the week at a whopping 53.5 points. Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Brandon Marshall, and Alshon Jeffery are our usual suspects. But Aaron Rodgers talked up Adams’ progress over the bye week. Adams is coming off a 7-75 day on nine targets against the Saints, and the expectation for Sunday is a similar style game with both offenses moving the ball up and down the field. The Bears are a middle-of-the-pack pass defense. Adams’ salary continues to stay low on FanDuel. You’re not going to find anyone with his upside in that price range.
WR Jermaine Kearse vs. Giants ($4600): Doug Baldwin hurt his groin against the Raiders and missed practice Wednesday. Afterward, coach Pete Carroll wondered if Baldwin could play this week. Since the Percy Harvin trade, Kearse is averaging five targets per game, while Baldwin has seen over seven. Those seven looks need to go somewhere, and Kearse would be Russell Wilson’s No. 1 receiver in the event Baldwin sits. Paul Richardson and Ricardo Lockette would be Nos. 2 and 3. The Giants are really hurting at the cornerback spot with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie battling a back issue, Prince Amukamara out for the season after tearing his biceps last week, and No. 3 corner Zack Bowman is the hospital thanks to an abdominal flare-up. If Bowman can’t play, it’ll be Chandler Fenner and Jayron Hosley behind DRC. Tasty for Kearse. The Giants are traveling cross-country after playing on Monday night. Kearse is a home run hitter with an eye for the end zone.
TE Owen Daniels vs. Titans ($5400): Daniels had the quickest recovery from a knee scope we’ve ever seen. He missed just one game and came back to put up a 6-53 line on the Steelers on seven targets. In an offense that features its tight end, Daniels is a near-lock for 4-6 catches per week. In a down year at the position, Daniels is locked in as a TE1 against Tennessee. The Titans lost SS Bernard Pollard to a torn Achilles’ recently and are surrendering the 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends. Daniels leads the Ravens with six targets in the red zone.
TE Clay Harbor vs. Cowboys ($5100): Harbor has just two grabs for 27 yards on five targets the past two weeks, but he’s not being called on to block any more or less than he had been earlier in the season. In Weeks 6-7, Harbor secured nine catches for 125 yards and one touchdown on 10 targets. He now gets a Cowboys defense that is giving up the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. And as mentioned above, Cecil Shorts (hamstring) may miss Sunday’s game. Those targets need to be distributed somewhere, and I’d expect Harbor and Allen Robinson to be the biggest beneficiaries since Cecil Shorts has been working mostly close to the line of scrimmage. Harbor is the definition of a dart-toss at tight end.
