Week 1 Rankings

Updated 9/7 at 12:15 PM ET. Andre Ellington and Cam Newton removed. Kenny Stills, Cecil Shorts and Aaron Dobson removed. Moved Antonio Gates and Greg Olsen down.

Updated 9/7 at 12:50 PM ET. Moved Michael Crabtree down after he was labeled "true game-time decision" by FOX's Jay Glazer.

Questions beget questions. You spent all summer pondering “so-and-so vs. so-and-so, and in what round?” Now those so-and-sos are no longer Xs and Ys, but your players. You got who you wanted, but heavy is the head that wears the crown. You have too many good options, and don’t know who to start. That’s where we — impartial arbiter of your weekly dilemmas — come in.

But do yourself a favor this first week: Don’t undo all your good work. Trust the process that got you to Week 1 with a squad you love. That means start your early-round studs, and resist cold feet with the sleepers you’ve been rejoicing in since May. At least for one week, let yourself sleep at night. You’re going to need the rest for the annual wild ride we’re all about to embark on.

Week 1 Quarterbacks

QB Notes: Peyton Manning doesn’t have Wes Welker or Eric Decker. Thankfully, he still has Peyton Manning. … Drew Brees’ home/road splits were starker than ever in 2013, but at the Georgia Dome against the Falcons’ swiss cheese defense is not a matchup you worry about. … Among the many things Matthew Stafford inspires, confidence isn’t usually one of them. But at home with a healthy Calvin Johnson, a legitimate No. 2 receiver (Golden Tate) and a brand new trio of coaching mentors, he should at least get off to a strong start against a Giants team that’s oscillated between “disarray” and “full-fledged anarchy” over the past calendar year. … This should be the last week you find Aaron Rodgers outside the top three. … Matt Ryan is a lead-pipe lock to bounce-back from his disappointing, but hardly dismal, 2013. … The simple part: Jay Cutler will be a top-12 quarterback if he stays healthy. The not simple part: Staying healthy.

Admittedly, I’ve been lower on Nick Foles than most, but this didn’t look like a quarterback ready to get “exposed” in the preseason. Sanity dictates that Foles won’t match his categorically-insane rates from 2013, but he is more than capable of a top-five fantasy finish in an offense satisfied with nothing less than warp speed. And despite the loss of DeSean Jackson and Jason Avant, Foles has as many targets — Jeremy Maclin, Riley Cooper, Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, Brent Celek, LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles — as any quarterback in the league. … You could sleep on Tom Brady, or you could bet on a quarterback who was a different player in the second half last season. After limping to 1,824 yards, a 55.7 completion percentage, 5.94 YPA and 9:6 TD:INT through his first eight games, Brady exploded for 2,519, 65.1, 7.85 and 16:5, respectively, over the season’s final two months. You could also think he lacks targets, or you could list them out: Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Brandon LaFell, Kenbrell Thompkins, Rob Gronkowski, Tim Wright and Shane Vereen. Brady is far from done.

Coming off a preseason where he went 30-of-39 for 360 yards, two touchdowns, zero turnovers and three rushing scores, Russell Wilson looks ready to be unleashed. Going up against a defense that’s struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks the past two seasons, Wilson could set the tone for a dominant 2014 on Thursday evening. … Quietly disappointing for long stretches of 2013, Tony Romo needs to prove he’s healthy after two back surgeries in 16 months by dissecting an uncharacteristically-undermanned 49ers defense. … Colin Kaepernick has all the tools in the world. Now with Anquan Boldin, Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd and a healthy (Thursday note: Well, maybe not.) Michael Crabtree, he finally has a receiver corps to match. … Coming off his strongest season since 2009, Ben Roethlisberger is a quarterback with top-eight upside who nobody is talking about. … Banged up and breaking in a new supporting cast, this is as low as you will ever see Cam Newton (ribs). … Carson Palmer could prove to be 2014’s top streaming quarterback.

Robert Griffin III appeared to be two things in the preseason: 1. Out of control. 2. Healthy. The latter should be a boon to his fantasy standing. The former is why it could be short lived. RGIII is one of the most gifted players in football, but must clean up his fundamentals — and freaking learn to slide — if he wants to summit the mountain he nearly scaled as a rookie. … Philip Rivers was one of fantasy’s top stories in 2013, but owners looking for a repeat of his top-six finish are going to be sorely disappointed. The Bolts should continue to dial back Rivers’ pass attempts as they dial up the run. … The same could be true for Andy Dalton, but OC Hue Jackson had a knack for maximizing potential in Oakland. … It’s now-or-never for Ryan Tannehill, lest he wants to take up permanent residence in Bradfordland. … Alex Smith will be without a No. 1 receiver to make plays this weekend. You could argue that’s not too different from 2013, where he finished as fantasy’s No. 16 quarterback.

Joe Flacco was a flat tire in 2013. He should be a spare in 2014. … Like Jay Cutler with less throwing ability and less durability, Jake Locker could be in for a top-16 season if he could somehow stay healthy. … Geno Smith looked legitimately impressive in the preseason, and his Week 1 opponent could scarcely be more appetizing. … Shaun Hill is 34 and has attempted only 16 passes since 2010, but quarterbacks with a gunslinger’s mentality. He could settle in as one of the year’s better streamers. … E.J. Manuel can’t be trusted in any format. He’s 1-2 bad starts away from losing his job to Kyle Orton, who’s being paid like a starter. … Looking impressive against preseason 2s and 3s is one thing. Looking impressive against Rex Ryan is quite another. Keep Derek Carr benched for his first career start. … So begins Brian Hoyer’s weekly dirge to delay Johnny Football.

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Week 1 Running Backs

RB Notes: There’s no right answer between LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles. Just enjoy the fireworks. … By the letter of the law, Adrian Peterson had a “down” 2013. He rushed for 831 fewer yards than he did in 2012, missed two games entirely and parts of two others. But not even AD’s “down” seasons are human. He still finished fourth in rushing touchdowns, and sixth in running-back fantasy points. Now 29, Peterson is already on the wrong side of the running-back aging curve, but it should be just one more trend he bucks. Peterson is as good a bet as any to finish as fantasy’s No. 1 overall player. … The 49ers have been consistently strong against the run under Jim Harbaugh, but missing Aldon Smith, Navorro Bowman, Glenn Dorsey and perhaps Ray McDonald, this is a unit that could be soft up the middle. Fire up DeMarco Murray without fear in a potential shootout. … After endless offseason hand wringing about his workload, Marshawn Lynch enters Week 1 $1.5 million richer, and once again ready for 300 carries.

It’s a tough matchup for Eddie Lacy, but this isn’t a back who’s going to come off the field this season. The Seahawks’ run defense is stout, but far from impenetrable. Lacy is a locked-in RB1, as he’ll be every week. … Montee Ball isn’t nearly the leap of faith he appears to be. No one invites softer fronts than Peyton Manning, while the Colts’ front seven is a wet noodle without Robert Mathis. Everything Knowshon Moreno did last season, Ball can do better. … The time to worry about Andre Ellington was before you reached for him. Now that he’s on your team, he’s an every-week no brainer. Ellington is an injury risk — aren’t we all? — but has superstar upside. … Arian Foster has maintained his workhorse, every-down role. As for his workhorse, every-down legs? Time will tell. Its story to date has not been pretty. … As much as your brain wants to worry about Zac Stacy, it shouldn’t. He’s the runaway No. 1 back for an offense founded on the run. Fire him up and wait for touchdowns.

Doug Martin’s offseason minefield became a prairie after third-rounder Charles Sims was lost to a broken ankle, and the Bucs acquired LG Logan Mankins. Martin probably isn’t the burgeoning superstar he appeared to be in 2012, but he’s also not the bum he was in 2013. The truth, as always, should lie somewhere in the middle. In this case, the borderline RB1 middle. … Frank Gore is on the wrong side of pretty much everything you can think of. He’s also a threat for 8-10 touchdowns this season, and starting off with one of the worst defenses in league history. Gore will likely end up a sell high, but for now he’s a must start. … Giovani Bernard is perhaps this season’s greatest mystery. Will he improve on last year’s RB16 finish, or be torpedoed by rookie short-yardage back Jeremy Hill? In cases like this, it’s best to bet on talent. Bernard has it, and OC Hue Jackson is a maestro at cultivating it. I’m still betting on Bernard.

Could Le'Veon Bell lose goal-line work to LeGarrette Blount? Yes. Is there any empirical proof that Blount is a more effective short-yardage runner? No. Bell’s talent or rookie stats don’t jump off the page, but his role still does. He’ll get carries in the red zone, and looks in the passing game. That’s a recipe that always quells fantasy fears. … Forget what you think you know about Toby Gerhart, which is that he’s a career backup without much side-to-side wiggle. So was Michael Turner before he arrived in Atlanta. Gerhart doesn’t have a Turner-ian ceiling, but he certainly has the role. This career No. 2 is now a locked-and-loaded RB2. … Ben Tate’s durability has always left much to be desired, but his role should be the envy of the fantasy world. Much like Zac Stacy, he’s an every-down back for a run-first offense. Working with zone-blocking maven Kyle Shanahan, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that Tate explodes into RB1 status this season. … There may be three backs in San Diego’s backfield, but Ryan Mathews is still going to dominate early downs and goal-line touches.

Ride Rashad Jennings’ three-down role for as long as he has it. … Don’t be surprised if Shane Vereen is a weekly riser in these ranks. … Chris Johnson looked good this preseason, better than he did the past three seasons in Tennessee. Finally part of a legitimate committee after being miscast as a bellcow, don’t be surprised if CJ2K appears rejuvenated. … It’s easy to forget Bernard Pierce was as bad as Ray Rice last season. He’s unlikely to run away with Baltimore's feature job during Rice’s two-game ban. … Death, taxes and Fred Jackson outperforming fantasy expectations. … Mark Ingram was under-drafted this summer, but he could also end up over-started. This is an RB3. … Trent Richardson averaged 2.55 yards on 20 carries this preseason. That’s the joke. … Hopefully No. 38 is the lowest Bishop Sankey is ranked all season. He shouldn’t be fighting for work with Shonn Greene. … T-Rich owners need to keep Ahmad Bradshaw on speed dial. … Believe Lance Dunbar’s Joique Bell role when you see it.

Week 1 Receivers

WR Notes: Remember when Calvin Johnson had 329 yards against the Cowboys last season? That was fun. Megatron is still firmly in his prime. … For as dominant as Calvin is, Demaryius Thomas has the size, speed, quarterback and YAC ability to make the jump from No. 2 to No. 1 this season. … A.J. Green is always ranked just behind Dez Bryant, but he always finishes just ahead of him. A beastly talent who doesn’t get his due. … As long as he can keep his twice surgically-repaired foot in working order, Julio Jones will be a threat for No. 1 receiver status. Terrell Owens is still playing. … In the great Brandon Marshall/Alshon Jeffery debate, I’m taking the 24 year old who turned fewer than 90 catches into more than 1,400 yards last season. By a whisker. … Antonio Brown was No. 2 in both yards and receptions last season. It’s hard to think of a more underrated player in fantasy.

As Evan Silva points out in his indispensable Matchups column, Jordy Nelson will see some Richard Sherman Thursday evening, but won’t be locked down, a la Revis Island. For as dominant as he is, Sherman plays “sides” for the Seahawks. Getting cute and downgrading your WR1 for Week 1 could be a matchup-costing mistake. … Am I too high on Michael Floyd? It’s quite possible. But there’s always someone who crashes the top-10 party, and I think Floyd will be the man this season. A rocked up 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, Floyd is a beast at all levels of the field, and ready to emerge as the No. 1 receiver for an offense that passes first and asks questions later. … The matchup is tough for Keenan Allen in Patrick Peterson, but his precision route running makes him difficult for even the lockdownest of corners to handle. Allen won’t be looking back after his excellent rookie campaign. … Michael Crabtree (calf) looks like this week’s injury surprise. Keep an ear to the ground.

Who’s been left for dead more often? Andre Johnson or Roddy White? Aging like fine wines, both players are rock-solid WR2s who could easily climb to yesteryear’s WR1 heights. … Patience has become a lost art in the era of smartphones, but it’s something Torrey Smith should reward. After two years of incremental improvement, Smith — who is still only 25 — is primed to explode playing OC Gary Kubiak’s fantasy-friendly “X” receiver position. … Can Victor Cruz survive the implosion of the Giants’ offense? Pray for mojo. … T.Y. Hilton is the Colts’ best receiver. This is something they begrudgingly admitted down the stretch last season. It’s something Andrew Luck is unlikely to let them forget. Hilton should ultimately be there in two-receiver sets. … Coach Pete Carroll has alluded to snap counts for Percy Harvin. … The way people talk about Emmanuel Sanders’ lot in Denver, you’d think he had a bad one in Pittsburgh. He didn’t, and often failed to take advantage of plum positions. But if I was on the fence before, Wes Welker’s suspension has made it impossible to ignore the targets that have to come Sanders’ way.

The bust potential is higher with Cordarrelle Patterson than some might realize — this isn’t a player who’s proven he can create his own looks — but when the upside is this high, you throw caution to the wind. … Larry Fitzgerald was the WR16 last season. I don’t expect him to repeat it. … It seems everyone’s forgotten Eric Decker scored eight touchdowns for the 2011 Broncos. You know, the ones quarterbacked by Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow. Decker doesn’t have a prayer at repeating last year’s WR8 finish, but he’s going to soak up looks, especially in the red zone. He’s a WR2 you bought at a WR3 price. … Pierre Garcon’s WR13 finish last season was built on the back of leading the league in targets. With Jordan Reed improving and DeSean Jackson in town, it’s not a feat Garcon could even hope to repeat. … Mike Wallace is better than the WR25 he was in 2013, but until we see an improved Ryan Tannehill deep ball in action, the Wallace re-emergence will be far from a given.

Rueben Randle’s preseason looked disconcertingly similar to his 2013, but at 6-foot-2, 208 pounds, he’s the only legitimate red-zone target for a team without a tight end. … Kelvin Benjamin is my favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. He’s at the right intersection of talent and role. … Justin Hunter has as much upside as any receiver in the NFL. … Sammy Watkins will be hard to trust until the Bills figure out what to do with E.J. Manuel. … Kenny Britt’s upside is more than just a rumor, but keep him benched until you see some real, live results. … James Jones has always been a touchdown scorer. He should keep it up in Oakland. … As you’re racing to start Cody Latimer, remember that he’s still technically behind Andre Caldwell on the depth chart. … Aaron Dobson could find himself twice as high in these rankings next week. … You really shouldn’t be starting Tavon Austin. … Santonio Holmes isn’t yet worth a roster spot.

Week 1 Tight Ends

TE Notes: Jimmy Graham remains in his own tier at the top until Rob Gronkowski proves he can stay on the field. … As for Gronk, all signs point toward him suiting up against the Dolphins, but it’s likely he’ll be on a snap count. The good news is, those snaps should come in important spots. In particular, the red zone. If you drafted Gronk, you’re starting Gronk. … Don’t be surprised if Julius Thomas turns in a No. 1 week during Wes Welker’s absence. … Please don’t contrive reasons to worry about Jordan Cameron. It’s not as if teams weren’t game planning for him before Josh Gordon’s suspension. He’s a star. Stars produce. … There are more mouths to feed in San Francisco this season, but Vernon Davis’ touchdown prowess keeps him locked in as a high-end TE1. … Forever underrated, Greg Olsen will probably lead the Panthers in targets this season.

Don’t be surprised if Jason Witten takes an Antonio Gates baby step back this season. … Kyle Rudolph could score 10 touchdowns for OC Norv Turner. … It remains to be seen how Jordan Reed will be utilized in Jay Gruden’s offense, but his talent is not a question mark. Gruden’s tight ends rarely stuffed the stat sheet in Cincinnati, but the conditions were never favorable. Jermaine Gresham is not a receiving dynamo, while Tyler Eifert’s upside was capped by the presence of Gresham. It’s unlikely Gruden wastes his talented second-year pro. … Dennis Pitta is ready to be OC Gary Kubiak’s new Owen Daniels. … The only question for Zach Ertz is how big his piece of the pie will be. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Chip Kelly’s offense. … When in doubt, start Heath Miller.

Ladarius Green has a superstar ceiling, but don’t be surprised if he’s again slowed by former superstar Antonio Gates. He’s best left on benches for Week 1. … The man blocking Travis Kelce — Anthony Fasano — does not have a Gates-ian résumé, but he does share Gates’ place on the depth chart: No. 1. Unlike Green, however, Kelce was allowed to go off in the preseason, catching 11 passes for 193 yards and two touchdowns. Freakishly fast and dynamic for a tight end, Kelce should get every opportunity to make explosive plays this season. He could rise up to the TE1 ranks in a hurry. … Tim Wright will be hyped because he’s in New England, but the “move” tight end position has been de-emphasized since Aaron Hernandez went to jail. Wright will be an inconsistent TE2. … Eric Ebron is probably a year away. Jace Amaro could get more chances to contribute in 2014. … Richard Rodgers isn’t ready to be a fantasy contributor.

Week 1 Kickers

Week 1 Defense/Special Teams