Waiver Wired: Hot NBA Pickups
4 games: ATL, BOS, DAL, DEN, DET, LAL, MIA, MIN, MIL, NO, NY, ORL, PHI, SA, WAS
3 games: BK, CHI, CLE, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, MEM, OKC, PHX, POR, SAC, TOR, UTA
2 games: CHA
Well, Saturday brought some really bad news for the Raptors with DeMar DeRozan suffering a groin injury from Friday’s game. The 2013-14 All-Star suffered a tear for his adductor longus tendon and is going to be out indefinitely. So what does that even mean?
The adductor longus muscle is one of the muscles that bring your leg towards your midline (abductor takes it away). It’s more common in soccer players and it can result in a player missing multiple months. The Raptors have yet to announce a treatment for DeRozan, but he said he hopes to return in four weeks. That seems optimistic based on what we know. Usually, the Raptors tend to downplay injuries at the first chance, but they came out and said he has a “tear” and not a strain. Technically, a tear is a strain of a muscle and it’s just a severe variety, so they could have got away with saying a strain and they wouldn’t have been lying.
The bottom line is that DeRozan is going to be out for a while and the All-Star break is probably a good guess right now. To be clear, I’m totally guessing and he could be back for the start of 2015.
OK, so you didn’t click this column for a breakdown of DeRozan’s injury and probably are looking for the subsequent fantasy hoops question: Who benefits?
Let’s take a quick look at the five-man lineups coach Dwane Casey used in the second half on Friday for over one minute of game action (DeRozan suffered his injury with 8:22 left in the third quarter):
You’ll notice that he used a three-guard lineup more than any other, which he got away with because of the matchup against the Mavericks. Casey is probably going to play the matchups a lot, so we’re probably not going to get the same guy putting up big numbers. Basically, it’s an RWBC (Raptors wing by committee).
You’ll also notice that there is a lot of James Johnson playing small forward in these lineups, which has been par for the course on the season. That should continue and he’s a good bet for 24 minutes per game. We’ll have more on him later.
OK, let’s get to the pickups. You can follow me on Twitter @MikeSGallagher for analysis, commentary, stats, Vines and more!
One other quick thing on DeRozan: Kyle Lowry has a 45.5 usage rate (!) when DeRozan is on the bench this season. That’s like Kobell Westbrant.
Guards
Lou Williams TOR (owned in 54 percent) - He’s obviously a “run, don’t walk” add here. Williams was coming into Friday’s game with some serious momentum, averaging 22.6 points, 1.6 boards, 1.4 assists, 2.2 steals and 3.2 triples in 26.0 minutes per game in his last five.
He played a season-high 30 minutes on Friday and was at 16.2 in the second half — he only averaged 11.4 minutes per game in the second half and 20.8 overall. Basically, he should get around 8-10 more minutes of DeRozan’s 34, which should give him top-80 value.
Williams is Swaggy-esque because he won’t do much outside of the scoring. Still if he keeps up his 27.1 usage and gets to 30 minutes per night, there is going to be a lot of scoring from Sweet Lou and he could flirt with 20 per game. Add him, but consider selling high with all the buzz around him because there’s no way he post No. 8 fantasy value, which is what he’s done in the past two weeks. Also, don’t freak out if he doesn’t start unless you have a “games started” fantasy category.
Mo Williams MIN (owned in 38 percent) - I bet you don’t know who has the best per-game average in nine-cat leagues over the past week. OK, maybe you do since you saw the “Mo Williams” start this paragraph. He only had one game and it was a monster performance against the Lakers, scoring 25 points with 11 assists, one board, two steals and six triples in 30 minutes. Yes, he’s obviously not going to be this good, but he did have two double-doubles in his previous three games, which helped him accumulate No. 46 value over the past two weeks. Not bad.
He’s a must add player and should be great for the next month or so. I think he’ll outperform Lou in the next month, too.
Greivis Vasquez TOR (owned in 15 percent) - As it turns out, the last player to start because of a DeRozan injury was Vasquez. Things are a little different now that they have some tremendous depth with Williams and Johnson, so it does make sense to keep him in the second unit to backup Kyle Lowry. He’ll still play next to Lowry a lot, though.
Vasquez has been red hot in his last two, averaging 17.5 points, 4.5 dimes, 0.5 steals and 3.5 triples. He also played 25 minutes on Friday and 14 in the second half, so he looks poised for minutes in the upper 20s right now.
A couple seasons ago, GV actually led the NBA in total assists with 704 on the New Orleans Hornets (now the Pelicans; confusing, I know). If we extrapolate what he’s done with the Raptors so far in these two seasons, we’re probably looking at around 11 points, three boards, 4.5 dimes, 0.6 steals and 1.5 treys. That’s not going to win you many weeks, but it’s something that should be near the top-100 in value.
Zach LaVine MIN (owned in 7 percent) - Like many Wolves, LaVine had a big game against the Lakers on Friday with 28 points, five assists and two 3-pointers in just 26 minutes. That scoring output more than doubled his previous career high and was probably the biggest surprise of Friday. He played a little next to Mo Williams and that might continue considering how thin the Wolves are on the wing with Kevin Martin (wrist) out for at least another month.
LaVine was a ghost in the first month of the season and he really struggled in his five starts, averaging 8.4 points, 3.6 boards, 3.6 assists, 0.6 steals and 0.2 triples on 36.4 percent from the field. It’s hard to get too excited about him getting it going and we would really need to see him do it a couple more times to warrant a pickup. Although, the Wolves aren’t going anywhere this season and they could give LaVine more run in the second half.
He’s more of a stash and I wouldn’t count on him in most leagues right now.
Rodney Stuckey IND (owned in 32 percent) - He’s actually been the No. 75 player in the past week on per-game value. That’s unlikely to continue because of his awful effective field goal percentage and he’s been outside of top-150 value in standard leagues since his return (per-game value). The Pacers have been using him at both guard spots and he’s seen most of his time on the court next to Donald Sloan. That should be the case for now and I would expect him to be in the high 20s once the Pacers get George Hill back.
While coach Frank Vogel said back in October that he is going to turn Stuckey into a playmaker, he only has a 21.4 assist percentage (percentage of team’s assists while he is on the court). That means the dimes are not going to be there to complement the scoring. Plus, he doesn’t make threes and isn’t much of a thief with steals.
His upside is basically as a top-120 guy, so I’m not too bullish on adding him.
Jason Terry and Isaiah Canaan HOU (owned in 4 percent and 2 percent of leagues, respectively) - The Rockets are in deep trouble. Patrick Beverley has suffered three (!) hamstring injuries in the past month and the Rockets are going to sit him down for a while. I’d guess he misses another week and the Rockets will ease him back and keep his minutes around 20 for a week or so. They don’t want him turning into Corey Maggette.
On top of that, Isaiah Canaan had a bad ankle sprain and missed Saturday. He didn’t even travel and he might miss more games. Still, I think he can beat Pat-Bev back, which explains why he’s a pickup. Canaan was actually coming off a nice two-game stretch, so maybe he gets it going. We’re talking deeper weekly leagues here.
As for JET, he played a shockingly high 35 minutes on Saturday. That was the first time he played over 30 minutes in a game since March of 2013, but the Rockets needed him. They would really be playing with fire to give him that many minutes, so it’ll likely be in the mid-20s.
If he does get that kind of playing time, we can probably expect 12 points, three dimes a steal and two treys, which is start-worthy stuff. If you need someone in a pinch this week, he’s worth a look. The Rockets do only have three games, though. Plus, Canaan might make it back for one of those.
Four-game stream options (owned in less than 10 percent)
Alexey Shved PHI (owned in 1 percent of leagues) - He should get some serious run as the backup point guard and he also plays next to Michael Carter-Williams, too. Obviously you shouldn’t have high expectations, but he does get four games.
Austin Rivers NO (owned in 5 percent) - To be honest, I actually dislike Rivers a lot and he’s awful as a scorer, but he does have four games this week with solid matchups. If you want to chance it, you’re crazier than I am.
Hollis Thompson PHI (owned in 2 percent) - He should get four starts this week and will see minutes in the mid 20s. Thompson could score in the low double digits with some treys because Tony Wroten (knee) is out.
Forwards
K.J. McDaniels PHI (owned in 27 percent of leagues) - Hopefully he is in the dunk contest after making the NBA’s All-Vine Team. More importantly for us fantasy owners, McDaniels has actually seen some production on the stat sheet over his last five, averaging 14.0 points, 4.4 boards, 1.2 assists, 1.0 blocks, 0.8 steals and 1.4 triples in 28.0 minutes. The blocks are actually down from his 1.3 in 24.0 minutes per game on the season, too.
While his massive 21-point, 13-board line does come with a grain of salt because Tony Wroten didn’t play, it is not a huge issue. Wroten actually finished the game on Wednesday after his injury and KJM still played 33 minutes in that game while also playing 27 on Monday. Basically, Wroten is not his competition; that looks to be Luc Mbah a Moute, Brandon Davies and Hollis Thompson. All of those guys seem to be losing minutes and it’s opening up playing time — Davies plays power forward, but Mbah a Moute sliding to that spot opens up minutes at the three. Coach Brett Brown has actually used a forward tandem of Hollis and K.J. quite a bit in the last two weeks, too.
Brown has been bashing McDaniels at almost any chance he could up until last night. "My mom tweeted that he didn't box out on one play,” Brown said on the 4. Now, Brown finally said that McDaniels brings energy to the team. The Clemson product actually leads the team in plus-minus per game on the season (minimum of 12 minutes per game) and he's been wonderful on the offensive glass. Brett is running out of excuses to not play him.
Like 95 percent of rookies, he’s going to have some bad games, but the upside in blocks to go with some steals and treys makes him too tough to leave on the wire for me. Grab him and see what happens.
James Johnson TOR (owned in 9 percent) - Johnson hasn’t been great since his return from an ankle sprain. He has committed eight fouls in just 41 minutes, which has been a bugaboo for him in the past. He was a beast before the injury and we'll get to that in a minute.
As alluded to, Johnson is getting most of his minutes at small forward on the season. He probably makes the most sense as the starter and push Ross over to shooting guard. Before this recent cold spell, Johnson was actually posting mid-round value in standard leagues and he’s sitting at No. 93 right now in just 18 minutes per game. How? Defense.
Johnson has 1.3 blocks per game and 0.9 steals. That is no fluke and he’s been a 1-1 guy on defense in much of his career. The last time he was with the Raptors, Johnson played 25.2 minutes per game in 2011-12, averaging 9.1 points, 4.7 boards, 2.0 assists, 1.4 blocks, 1.0 steals and 0.3 treys. Those numbers translated to 10th-round value and he didn’t even shoot the ball well. This season, he’s taking 58.3 percent of his shots at the rim and is making 74.3 percent of those, which explains his tremendous 56.7 percent from the field. Plus, he’s still only 27 years old and hasn’t lost a ton of athleticism. Oh and he's a third-degree black belt in martial arts.
He’s played more than 24 minutes in just one game this year with a line of 16 points, five rebounds, one assist, four blocks, four steals and one turnover. That’s not bad. If you want upside in a standard league, it’s hard to top Johnson. Tonight’s game against the Lakers is going to be huge. If he’s going off, you better make sure you beat the rush.
Terrence Ross TOR (owned in 59 percent) - He’s played just 26 minutes per game on the season and has been able to turn in No. 98 fantasy value on a per-game basis. He’s actually cooled off lately and has seen his minutes take a slight dip. Obviously, that’s not going to happen anymore. You might remember Ross had his 51-point game last season in the same game when DeRozan suffered an injury. I would guess he gets about six more minutes of DeRozan’s playing time, but can he elevate his fantasy value?
He did a lot of his damage as a catch-and-shoot guy, but let’s take a little closer look. The following is a look at his performance and frequency on shooting off the dribble and how he’s done on pull-ups and catch-and-shoot attempts (this season is on top and last year is below; via NBA.com):
There are not a lot of differences, but the biggest one is actually the most important. He is putting the ball on the floor more, which he is going to have to do more now that DeRozan is out. Another major positive is that he is 10 percent better in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) on pull-ups this season. That’s huge because he will need to score on his own.
I think Ross has a real chance to score in the high teens and hit 2.5 triples per game. I’m a little worried of the letdown factor because he’s still not quite there as an ISO scorer. Plus, he’s only taking 12.7 percent of his shots at the rim, which has to come up if he wants to shoot even 44 percent from the field.
He is certainly worth a look in all standard leagues. If your team needs offense, Ross is probably the guy over JJ and also K.J.
Wes Johnson LAL (owned in 29 percent) - So much for Swaggy P hurting Wes. In the last week, Johnson has been the No. 29 player thanks to 1.3 steals and 1.3 blocks (defense is a common thread in this column, huh?). Last season he was one of three players to average 1.0 in steals, blocks and triples (technically 0.98 in blocks, but we’ll round up; Paul Millsap and Spencer Hawes were the the others).
Johnson is essential to the Lakers succeeding and he’s their best perimeter defense. It wouldn’t be a shocked to see him as a top-80 guy on the season.
Cody Zeller CHA (owned in 8 percent) - The Hornets really, really need production out of their power forward. Marvin Williams is not the answer and that signing makes less sense every day. Williams has been out for two games with an injury and could be back soon. His minutes were already trending down before the injury, though.
Zeller has seen his playing time go up with 29.4 minutes per game over his last five, averaging 11.2 points, 5.4 boards, 1.6 assists, 0.6 blocks and 0.8 steals on 44.7 percent from the field. There’s a pretty good chance he can stay in the 27-minute neighborhood even with Marvin back.
Zeller is shooting the ball much better at 47.3 percent from the field, which is up from 42.8 percent last season. Why? His jump shooting has jumped to 37.5 percent this season — up from 26.2 last season. Besides that everything else seems to be consistent, so he could be a 47 percent guy on the year. Although, I have him pegged at about 45.
If he blocked more shots, I’d like him a little more. He’s more of a 14-team guy.
Donatas Motiejunas HOU (owned in 14 percent) - He was a colossal letdown following the Terrence Jones (leg) injury, but he’s coming around now. Over his last five, D-Mo averaged 14.8 points, 7.8 boards, 2.2 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.2 blocks on 58.9 percent. As great as that sounds, that’s actually just seventh-round value.
The Rockets were playing fantastic ball with Terrence Jones and I don’t think Motiejunas has done enough to warrant a pickup in standards. Jones will likely get his minutes back and D-Mo will likely lose some run if/when Dwight Howard gets back.
Nikola Mirotic CHI (owned in 14 percent) - Taj Gibson is not close to a return and it’s led to some nice production out of Mirotic. He had a 24-point game on Nov. 21 and a five-block game on Friday. Meanwhile, Doug McDermott has lost a lot of ground.
The Bulls do only get three games this week and one would think Taj is not going to be out too far into December. If you want some short-term value, he’s worth a look. I wouldn’t count on him much right now with most of his value behind him. Although, if Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah or Taj need to miss time in the future, do not wait one second to grab Niko-Miro.
Shawn Marion CLE (owned in 13 percent) - The Matrix was the No. 1 player in his heyday and he’s actually been the 70th-best player in the past week. He’s playing around 28 minutes in his new role while adding some nice defense, treys and boards. Give him a look as an end-of-the-bench guy. There isn’t a lot of upside here, though.
Ersan Ilyasova MIL (owned in 50 percent) - While I really enjoy the Wu-Tang Clan and Ghostface Killah, I’m not a fan of Ghostface Ilya. His fantasy owners aren’t going to have supreme clientele for trade partners for the former fantasy Ironman back in the 2012-13 season.
He is coming in hot with is last two games, but the Bucks just don’t have a backup center. Once Zaza Pachulia and/or John Henson return, Ersan will likely fade away. No thanks.
Patrick Patterson TOR (owned in 10 percent of leagues) - It’s not just minutes with DeRozan and his shots are going to be spread around too. The Raptors run a lot of pick-and-pop with Pat-Pat and there should be more. He’ll have a chance to score 10 points off the bench with some other stats, too.
Four-game stream options (owned in less than 10 percent)
Anthony Bennett MIN (owned in 8 percent) - The Wolves were granted an NBA hardship exception, so that means Nikola Pekovic is not close to returning. Bennett has been in double-digit scoring in each of his last four and he’s adding some defense, too. He might be a top-100 player this week against four up-tempo teams (Philly on Wednesday).
Kyle Singler DET (owned in 3 percent of leagues) - He got the start on Sunday and the team seems to be cooling on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
Centers
Timofey Mozgov DEN (owned in 60 percent) - I’m not sure why he’s not owned in more leagues. Maybe because people don’t want to say “I picked up Mozgov yesterday” and have their friends say “Mozgov? That guy Blake Griffin dunked on? You’re a clown. I’m outta here in my KIA Optima, guy.” Anyway, Mozzy has been a top-40 player in the past two weeks and there’s little reason to think he won’t be a top-80 guy.
It’s pretty clear that JaVale McGee can’t play big minutes and Jusuf Nurkic is not ready yet. If Mozgov is not owned in your league, join a better one next year.
Brandan Wright DAL (owned in 44 percent) - He’s another player with a criminally low ownership. I covered his cool advanced stats last week in Use It or Lose It, so feel free to check that out for some more details.
His shooting has dropped a bit to just 73.8 percent from the field, but his foul shooting is up to 72.3 percent. Wright doesn’t turn the ball over much because he barely dribbles and he’s done a great job of being consistent. He has put up top-50 value on the season and he seems like a safe bet to be inside 100. Points aren’t the only fantasy category, you guys.
Tristan Thompson CLE (owned in 35 percent) - I’m not the biggest Tristan fan out there because his fantasy game just doesn’t translate. He’s played 24.7 minutes per game and it’s led to just 160th-ranked value. Thompson’s minutes jumped up to 39 on Saturday and that could continue for as long as Anderson Varejao (ribs) is out. I don’t think AV will be out long, though.
Samuel Dalembert NY (owned 12 in percent) - Strangely, he’s probably benefited the most with the Carmelo Anthony injury news (and there are no other Knicks on this list because nobody is really stepping up, and Melo could be back soon). He has taken 10 shots in each of his last two games with averages of 10.5 points, 10.0 boards and 2.0 blocks in 22.0 minutes per game.
He’s not the greatest pickup and always finds himself in a doghouse, so he’s more of a deep-league lotto ticket for blocks. By the way, I considered putting a strike through for this entire Sammy section.
Four-game stream options (owned in less than 10 percent)
Tyler Zeller BOS (owned in 2 percent of leagues) - He started on Sunday and coach Brad Stevens loves him. He's obviously not the greatest add, but he could be solid with many games.
Kyle O’Quinn ORL (owned in 6 percent of leagues) - He might actually be a pickup and could be solid this week. The Magic have a mess at forward, so most of KOQ’s minutes will be at Nikola Vucevic’s backup.
Rudy Gobert UTA (owned in 4 percent) - The Jazz played more of Gobert next to Derrick Favors, so that’s a good sign. Maybe his minutes take off a bit because holy cow Enes Kanter got turned inside-out last night.
Andrea Bargnani NYK (owned in 'I’m too lazy to look it up' percent) - Just kidding.
Thanks for reading and happy hunting on the wire!
