Waiver Wire: Week 7
Week 6 saw a lot of our previous Waiver Wire touts pay off. Jerick McKinnon has officially been freed by the Vikings, Andre Holmes is going ballistic for Oakland and rookies Odell Beckham/Davante Adams are emerging. Assuming you already have these guys on your roster, this is a good week to sit tight and preserve your FAAB money or waiver priority. There are no Branden Olivers out there.
On to the Week 7 assets. Here is how I would rank the players available in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues right now. Notes and recommendations on each player will follow.
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Quarterbacks
1. Carson Palmer
2. Kirk Cousins
3. Brian Hoyer
4. Ryan Tannehill
Running backs
1. Jerick McKinnon
2. Isaiah Crowell
3. Brandon Bolden
4. James White
5. Bobby Rainey
6. Jonathan Stewart
7. Darren McFadden
8. Storm Johnson
* Ronnie Hillman is owned in 45 percent of Yahoo leagues. If available, he’d be my No. 1 add at RB.
Wide receivers
1. Andre Holmes
2. Odell Beckham
3. Davante Adams
4. Malcom Floyd
5. Cecil Shorts
6. Allen Robinson
7. Brandon LaFell
Tight ends
1. Clay Harbor
2. Jace Amaro
3. Austin Seferian-Jenkins
4. Jermaine Gresham
Defense/Special Teams
1. Browns
2. Redskins
3. Ravens
Kickers
1. Matt Prater
2. Brandon McManus
3. Chandler Catanzaro
4. Robbie Gould
QUARTERBACKS
1. Carson Palmer, Cardinals – Owned in 30 percent of Yahoo leagues
What shoulder issue? A true game-time decision Sunday thanks to his troublesome nerve situation, Palmer went out and threw 44 passes, completing 28 of them for 250 yards with two touchdowns. Yes, it came against the Redskins’ inept secondary. But an 80+ percent Palmer in this passer-friendly Bruce Arians scheme with three top-flight pass-catchers (Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Ellington) is going to put up numbers. He faces Oakland Sunday.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
2. Kirk Cousins, Redskins – Owned in 49 percent of Yahoo leagues
No one is going to want to come near Kirk Cousins this week after a second turnover-filled meltdown in three weeks. But the bottom line is that this guy puts up numbers and is at home facing a Titans pass defense ranked 18th in the NFL despite facing only Alex Smith, Tony Romo, Andy Dalton, Andrew Luck, Brian Hoyer and Blake Bortles so far. The Titans are also without SS Benard Pollard (heel). Cousins, who is averaging 330.2 passing yards and 2.0 TDs over his last four outings, is a great bet to fill the box score again. He'll be a sneaky FanDuel play because people won't be on him.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
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3. Brian Hoyer, Browns – Owned in 11 percent of Yahoo leagues
In seven full games as a Brown, Brian Hoyer has gone over 200 passing yards every game and compiled a 12:4 TD-to-INT ratio. Yes, he’s at the helm of a run-based offense which caps volume. But he’s also very aggressive with pushing the ball down the field, as evidenced in these stats laid out by Jonathan Bales. Hoyer is a decent streaming option for the next three weeks because of both the style he’s playing and the upcoming schedule: at JAX, vs. OAK, vs. TB.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
4. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins – Owned in 35 percent of Yahoo leagues
After a brutal first half in a difficult matchup against Green Bay in Week 6, Ryan Tannehill started to cook. He finished with a very respectable 244 yards and two touchdowns, one game after shredding the Raiders for 278 yards and two touchdowns. The former college wideout is also showing more of his athletic ability lately, running eight times for 84 yards in the last two weeks. Tannehill will carry upside into plus matchups at Chicago and at Jacksonville the next two weeks.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
Watch List: Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Mike Glennon, Austin Davis, Jake Locker, Robert Griffin III – I prefer Bortles to Brian Hoyer and Ryan Tannehill in a vacuum, but the upcoming schedule is tough: CLE, MIA, CIN. … Carr has impressive athleticism and a big arm, a combo we obviously like. But he has to face ARZ, CLE, SEA and DEN next. … Glennon isn’t worth holding through his bye in most formats. … Davis shredded DAL and PHL. Shockingly, he crashed back to earth against SF and gets SEA in Week 7. … Locker (thumb) remains a question mark for Week 7. … Kirk Cousins’ turnovers and losses are obviously great news for RG3.
RUNNING BACKS
1. Jerick McKinnon, Vikings – Owned in 37 percent of Yahoo leagues
If you’re in one of the 63 percent of leagues in which Jerick McKinnon is unowned, then I want to be in your league. As stated in this space repeatedly, McKinnon is a true athletic freak as explained in this Zach Whitman piece on SPARQ. The summary is that he’s in the 99th percentile of NFL running backs when it comes to measureables. So we knew it was only a matter of time before the Vikings promoted him over Matt Asiata and it finally happened in Week 6. McKinnon started against the Lions, out-snapping Asiata 48-15 and out-touching him 17-3. It’s a move that the coaches made early in the week and told the team, signifying a true changing of the guard. With this kind of usage, McKinnon projects as a RB2 weekly and I’m OK with dropping Asiata in shallower formats.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team leagues
2. Isaiah Crowell, Browns – Owned in 17 percent of Yahoo leagues
The gap between Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West is as wide as ever. West was a healthy scratch in Week 6, with coach Mike Pettine citing simple performance reasons. Speaking of performance, Crowell continues to run like the five-star recruit and SEC Freshman of the Year he was. He’s now averaging a whopping 5.38 YPC on his 44 carries this season, turning four of them into touchdowns. Ben Tate is clearly “the man” in Cleveland and the Browns love him, but Crowell has enough room for 6-10 carries in these upcoming matchups: JAX, OAK, TB. Of course, he’s also only one Tate injury away from RB1 status.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
3. Brandon Bolden, Patriots – Owned in 2 percent of Yahoo leagues
4. James White, Patriots – Owned in 3 percent of Yahoo leagues
Stevan Ridley went down with a season-ending knee injury midway through the third quarter in Week 6. The Patriots ran 23 plays after that, with Brandon Bolden getting six carries/no targets on 12 snaps and Shane Vereen getting two carries/no targets on 10 snaps. However, that is not what I’d expect going forward.
The Patriots were nursing a lead over the Bills and Bolden is a preferred clock-killer over Vereen. James White was also inactive and truer power-back Jonas Gray was parked on the practice squad. When Thursday night’s game against the Jets rolls around, this backfield is likely going to look very different. Complicating matters is that Bolden shoulders a heavy load on special teams, operating as a core player on all four kick units. Look, I’m not going to pretend I know what the Patriots are going to do going forward. They’re going to concoct different weekly gameplans depending on opponent and evaluate everything on a week-to-week basis. But I think they’ll expand Vereen’s base role slightly and use Bolden and White to fill the “big back” role by committee. Given that Ridley was only a crapshoot as a RB2 weekly, I’m not burning a waiver priority or a lot of FAAB money on either. I give Bolden the slight edge as the guy Bill Belichick seems to trust. White was also extremely unimpressive in the preseason, rushing 29 times for 80 yards with no touchdowns. He graded out 118th out of 128 running backs in PFF’s grades.
Recommendation: Both should be owned in deeper 12-team leagues
5. Bobby Rainey, Bucs – Owned in 29 percent of Yahoo leagues
The Bucs can’t go on with their stern commitment to Doug Martin too much longer. He ran for 45 yards on 11 carries in Week 6, but that production only came after the Ravens backed off thanks to a 35-0 lead. Martin still only averaging 2.89 YPC with zero runs of 20+ yards and is PFF’s No. 55 blocker at RB. Bobby Rainey, meanwhile, is averaging 4.85 YPC with three runs of 20+ and a slightly better blocking grade at 53rd overall. If this 1-5 team takes the bye to truly reevaluate the situation, they should at least five Rainey a chance to lead the committee. If stashers catch a break, Rainey will emerge as the starter.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper 12-team leagues
6. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers -- Owned in 16 percent of Yahoo leagues
DeAngelo Williams (ankle) is still at least two weeks away from a return, while Jonathan Stewart (knee) is trending toward returning his week. He’ll play in a committee, but the talent gap back to the likes of Darrin Reaves and Fozzy Whittaker is severe. If Stewart looks good, he should push for 12-15 touches against a Packers team that can’t defend the run. They’re 32nd in rush yards per game allowed, 24th in YPC allowed and T-28th in rush touchdowns allowed.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper 12-team leagues
7. Darren McFadden, Raiders – Owned in 40 percent of Yahoo leagues
In Tony Sparano’s first game as interim head coach, Darren McFadden got 16 touches on 46 snaps while Maurice Jones-Drew logged five touches on 15 snaps. It’s clear who the lead dog is here and we’re getting a theoretically explosive player for 12-18 touches weekly. The biggest problem with McFadden as a desperation RB3 is the upcoming schedule (ARZ, CLE, SEA, DEN) and lack of red-zone opportunities in this Raiders offense.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
8. Storm Johnson, Jaguars – Owned in 18 percent of Yahoo leagues
So maybe Toby Gerhart wasn’t the whole problem with the Jags running game after all? In a tasty spot against the Titans, Storm Johnson started and punched in a 1-yard touchdown early on, but finished with just 10 carries for 21 yards and one catch for negative-four yards. Due to game flow and ineptitude, the Jaguars are now averaging just 16.3 running back carries per game and their offensive line is PFF’s No. 29 run-blocking unit. It’s simply not a good spot to try to get stats from our running back and Gerhart (foot) could be back to reclaim his starting job as soon as this week.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
Watch List: Damien Williams, Tre Mason, Benny Cunningham, Antone Smith, James Starks, Juwan Thompson, Joseph Randle, Benny Cunningham, Jonas Gray – Williams should run ahead of Daniel Thomas as Lamar Miller’s backup. Knowshon Moreno (knee) is out for the season. … Zac Stacy’s grip on the job is loosening fast, but I’d be more excited about Mason and Cunningham if the schedule wasn’t so brutal. … Smith is fantasy’s No. 10 non-PPR running back while averaging 3.8 touches per game. But the Falcons have shown zero desire to truly get him more involved. … Starks and Eddie Lacy are now in a near-even timeshare. … Thompson is clearly ahead of C.J. Anderson for No. 2 duties behind Ronnie Hillman. … Alleged shoplifter Randle represents your weekly reminder to handcuff valuable backups. Alfred Blue, Knile Davis also come to mind. … Gray could be called up off New England’s practice squad and profiles as a true one-cut big back at 5’10/225.
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Andre Holmes, Raiders – Owned in 6 percent of Yahoo leagues
Regular readers of Rotoworld not only have Andre Holmes on their roster, but hopefully started him in each of his last two games. Once he got promoted to the starting lineup and Denarius Moore was a healthy scratch in the London game, all bets were off. As always, I direct you to this July column from Nick Mensio which highlighted the freaky size/speed ability of Holmes. Over the last two weeks, Holmes has played more snaps than any other Raiders wideout (86.7 percent) and led the team in targets (20). He’s the real deal.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team leagues
2. Odell Beckham, Giants – Owned in 37 percent of Yahoo leagues
Odell Beckham was my No. 2 add at wideout last week when the Giants had a full complement of weapons. Now they’ve lost Victor Cruz (knee) for the season. A Josh Norris favorite, the explosive Beckham will now start in two-wide sets outside and stay there when the Giants go to their preferred three-wide base. It’s a monster opportunity for a very talented player, putting him on the WR3 radar weekly going forward.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
3. Davante Adams, Packers – Owned in 6 percent of Yahoo leagues
Aaron Rodgers went into the Week 6 win at Miami raving about how Davante Adams is always open on film. Then he targeted his rookie on the first two plays of the game and also showed tremendous faith late on a Marino-esque fake-snap play. In between, Adams showed well, trailing only Jordy Nelson in targets and finishing with a 6-77-0 line. If not for some unfortunate luck (penalties, slips, batted balls), Adams’ box score over the last two weeks would look much, much prettier. He projects to hold the No. 3 job even when Jarrett Boykin (groin) returns, making him a fine weekly WR3.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
4. Malcom Floyd, Chargers – Owned in 23 percent of Yahoo leagues
At this point, we know what the 33-year-old Malcom Floyd is. He’s a big-play streaker that’s averaged a gaudy 17.6 yards per reception in his career. Of course, this style leads to a boom-or-bust, inconsistent kind of week-to-week fantasy play. So if you’re making an add here, just know what you’re getting into. It only helps a little bit that Eddie Royal (ribs) is in doubt for Week 7, as their route trees don’t really overlap.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
5. Cecil Shorts, Jaguars – Owned in 38 percent of Yahoo leagues
Cecil Shorts returned from his latest hamstring pull in Week 6, immediately reclaiming his starting “Z” role ahead of Allen Hurns and turning in a 10-103-0 line on a whopping 16 targets. It’s a reminder that this guy can really play when he’s healthy and the Jags know it. Shorts would be higher on the list if I had any confidence at all that he could sustain health.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
6. Allen Robinson, Jaguars – Owned in 12 percent of Yahoo leagues
Even with the entire Jags receiving corps back healthy, Robinson retained a starting gig – this time at the “X” spot. He continued to do work right around the line of scrimmage, catching 8-of-9 targets for 68 yards. The Jags are essentially using him as an extension of their inept run game, leading to at 25 catches over the last four weeks but just 236 yards and no touchdowns. Robinson is a PPR WR3 only for now, but has ability for more if the Jags change his role.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper 12-team PPR leagues
7. Brandon LaFell, Patriots – Owned in 7 percent of Yahoo leagues
Here are Brandon LaFell’s box scores by week: 0-0-0, 0-0-0, 4-46-0, 6-119-1, 1-20-0, 4-97-2. A sub-average player that’s always just around the corner from disappointment, I’m not buying into him as a player that’s going to step up for Tom Brady. But I can buy him as a desperation kind of WR4 because he’s playing 84.4 percent of the snaps over the last three weeks and faces the Jets’ inept secondary Thursday.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
Watch List: Robert Woods, John Brown, Jarvis Landry, Brian Tyms, Preston Parker, Corey Washington –Woods wouldn’t have seen 10 targets Sunday if Sammy Watkins wasn’t getting shadowed by Darrelle Revis. … Like the rest of Arizona’s pass-catchers, Brown is trending up with Carson Palmer healthy. … Landry showed very well in the slot with Brandon Gibson injured. Landry should keep the job. … If Tyms starts getting more than single-digit snaps, he’ll beast. Love this dude’s ability. … Parker is Victor Cruz’s direct replacement in the slot. But I’d love to see Rueben Randle move into the slot and preseason stud Corey Washington get a chance on the outside.
TIGHT ENDS
1. Clay Harbor, Jaguars – Owned in 3 percent of Yahoo leagues
In the three games since Marcedes Lewis’ ankle injury, Harbor is averaging 4.6 catches, 61.0 yards and 5.3 targets with one touchdown. Always a sneaky athlete that the Eagles even tried to move to wide receiver in 2013, Harbor is among the many beneficiaries of the spark Blake Bortles has given this offense. Harbor will be a TE1 streamer for deep leaguers against the Browns Sunday.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
2. Jace Amaro, Jets – Owned in 2 percent of Yahoo leagues
The 6’5/265 Jace Amaro was essentially an oversized slot receiver at Texas Tech, posting a 106-1352-7 line as a junior in 2013. His transition to the NFL has been predictably rocky, filled with drops and woes in blocking, but the Jets appear to have realized that they can play to his strengths. On Sunday, he lined up split wide regularly, running a route on 30 of his season-high 35 snaps. The result was 10 catches, 68 yards and a touchdown on a team-high 12 targets, including a goal-line fade over Broncos S T.J. Ward. There’s going to be a ton of inconsistency here due to Amaro’s inconsistencies and the Jets quarterback situation, but this kind of usage from a tight end is always worth a look.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper 12-team leagues
3. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Bucs – Owned in 3 percent of Yahoo leagues
I’m not giving up on Austin Seferian-Jenkins even though he’s totaled just 8-113-0 over the last three weeks. This is an athletic marvel at 6’5/262 who has played on 91.3 percent of the snaps during that span. Although Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans are going to eat up targets, there’s still room for ASJ to spread his wings a bit and return high-end TE2 value. When we combine playing time and talent, good things will eventually come. Note that ASJ is on a bye in Week 7.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
4. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals – Owned in 2 percent of Yahoo leagues
I’m not a fan of Jermaine Gresham’s natural ability as a receiver. But this situation has gotten dire for the Bengals. A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones are all expected to miss Week 7, leaving Gresham in line for another desperation call to duty in the pass game. The 6-68-0 line on seven targets should be the very top of the range owners expect heading into this week’s game at Indy.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
Watch List: Ladarius Green, Tim Wright, Josh Hill, Scott Chandler – Green’s usage and target count will get a little bump if Eddie Royal (ribs) misses time. … Wright simply isn’t getting enough snaps to be considered anything more than a TE2. … Hill and Ben Watson will share tight end duties while Jimmy Graham (shoulder) is out. But they can’t do Graham things, leaving Brandin Cooks and Marques Colston to pick up the slack. … Chandler’s fluky Week 6 performance can be thrown out as Sammy Watkins was getting shut down by Darrelle Revis. Chandler runs like a dad.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
1. Browns – Owned in 15 percent of Yahoo leagues
The Browns have a strong recipe for defensive success this week: A run-based offense that threatens to dominate time of possession, an attacking style thanks to Rex Ryan disciple Mike Pettine and a matchup with the Jaguars. In six games, the Jags have given up 27 sacks as a team and in 14 quarters, Blake Bortles has thrown seven interceptions.
2. Redskins – Owned in 4 percent of Yahoo leagues
The Titans played at home against the Jaguars in Week 6, yet still could only muster 16 points and 290 yards of total offense. Now they have to travel to Washington to face a defense that has more talent up front than many realize, specifically in pass rushers Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo. Ideally, this stream will be up against Charlie Whitehurst and not Jake Locker. But either way, it’s a good spot.
3. Ravens – Owned in 44 percent of Yahoo leagues
The Falcons’ only strength is throwing the football. The problem this week is that’s where this Ravens’ defense excels, especially in terms of stopping touchdowns. In six games this year, Jimmy Smith and company have allowed just six passing touchdowns. Now they’re at home and get to feast on an offensive line that simply can’t protect Matt Ryan long enough.
KICKERS
1. Matt Prater, Lions – Owned in 35 percent of Yahoo leagues
Coming off his suspension and surprise release from the Broncos, Matt Prater missed from 44 and 50 yards out in Week 6 – his Lions debut. But that was outside in windy conditions, while this week he will be in the kicker-friendly confines of Ford Field as part of a potential shootout with the Saints. Expect a big bounce-back performance while noting that Prater was 25-of-26 on field goals in 2013.
2. Brandon McManus, Broncos – Owned in 14 percent of Yahoo leagues
Normally, Brandon McManus’ upside is capped because the Broncos are so efficient in the red zone. But this week presents a bit of a stiffer test as they’ll face a weakened but still strong San Francisco defense. Of course, I prefer to stream McManus at home because his range is expanded by the Mile High air.
3. Chandler Catanzaro, Cardinals – Owned in 8 percent of Yahoo leagues
Chandler Catanzaro has quietly been spectacular this season, going 14-of-14 on field goals through five games. He’ll have an excellent shot at even more volume this week as the Cardinals travel to Oakland with starting quarterback Carson Palmer (shoulder) looking healthy.
4. Robbie Gould, Bears – Owned in 39 percent of Yahoo leagues
Robbie Gould has only gotten nine field-goal attempts through six games, but this home spot against Miami projects as a spot to raise that rate. It’s a game with an over/under of 49 and the Bears favored by 3.5 points, ideal game flow conditions for a kicker. We know Gould will make them if he gets them – his 86.1 conversion percentage is sixth-best all-time.
