Waiver Wire: Week 4
This is why we build depth even when it doesn’t look like we have a hole in our roster. With six teams on a bye this week and key injuries at a thin tight end position, the men will be separated from the boys.
If you lost Dennis Pitta or Kyle Rudolph, you better hope you’ve been stashing a Travis Kelce, Niles Paul or Larry Donnell. If not, the pickings are slim. It’s a prime opportunity for those of us that have been carrying two quality tight ends to make a trade offer. In fact, it’s a great week to talk trade overall given all the byes and injuries. Our opponents’ lack of depth will be exposed.
On to the assets. Here is how I would rank the players available in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues right now. Notes and recommendations on each player will follow.
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Quarterbacks
1. Kirk Cousins
2. Blake Bortles
3. Geno Smith
4. Teddy Bridgewater
5. Mike Glennon
Running backs
1. DeAngelo Williams
2. Lorenzo Taliaferro
3. Alfred Blue
4. Isaiah Crowell
5. Darrin Reaves
6. Branden Oliver
7. Jerick McKinnon
* Donald Brown is owned in 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. If available, he’d be my No. 1 add at RB.
* Khiry Robinson is owned in 42 percent of Yahoo leagues. If available, he’d be my No. 2 add at RB.
* Darren McFadden is owned in 38 percent of Yahoo leagues. If available, he’d be my No. 7 add at RB (just after Alfred Blue).
Wide receivers
1. Allen Robinson
2. Jordan Matthews
3. Davante Adams
4.Marvin Jones
5. John Brown
* Brian Quick is owned in 38 percent of Yahoo leagues. If available, he’d be my No. 1 add at wideout.
* Andrew Hawkins is owned in 41 percent of Yahoo leagues. If available, he’d be my No. 2 add at wideout.
Tight ends
1. Travis Kelce
2. Niles Paul
3. Larry Donnell
4. Ladarius Green
5. Owen Daniels
* Heath Miller is owned in 56 percent of Yahoo leagues. If available, he’d be my No. 4 add at tight end.
Defense/Special Teams
1. Dolphins
2. Chargers
3. Ravens
4. Redskins
Kickers
1. Cody Parkey
2. Shayne Graham
3. Shaun Suisham
4. Matt Prater
QUARTERBACKS
1. Kirk Cousins, Redskins – Owned in 48 percent of Yahoo leagues
I’m going to keep this short because if you’re in a competitive league, Kirk Cousins should already be owned. Click on last week’s Waiver Wired here for more on why. Cousins’ performance in Philly on Sunday was as impressive as I’ve seen all year, as he flashed amazing accuracy and touch on both deep and short passes. He’s now gone over 300 passing yards in three of his five NFL starts, and this Jay Gruden scheme is perfect for Cousins. It’s the same pocket-passer friendly system that made Andy Dalton fantasy’s No. 5 quarterback and the same one that is not a fit for Robert Griffin III’s skill set.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team leagues.
2. Blake Bortles, Jaguars – Owned in 5 percent of Yahoo leagues
The Jaguars finally put a stop to the madness, benching Chad Henne in favor of Blake Bortles at halftime of Sunday’s loss to the Colts. The No. 3 overall pick proceeded to provide a predictable spark, going 14-of-24 for 223 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Is he going to make a lot of mistakes and throw a bunch of picks? Yes. Is he going to be aggressive and take shots downfield? Yep. We saw it in the preseason, as Bortles went 32-of-51 for 521 yards with two touchdowns. If we add up his five total NFL appearances, he’s averaging a spectacular 16.1 yards per completion. Bortles will have a healthy Cecil Shorts, an emerging Allen Robinson and a plus schedule to work with.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper 12-team leagues
3. Geno Smith, Jets – Owned in 13 percent of Yahoo leagues
Yes, Geno Smith’s turnovers have killed the Jets. But he continues to put up numbers even as the Jets equip him with embarrassingly poor weapons. Smith already has one 300-yard game and a 20-84-1 line on his resume this season, along with three rushing touchdowns across the final four games last year. If Eric Decker can get his hamstring right and Michael Vick stays on the bench, Geno will be a reasonable QB2.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
4. Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings – Owned in 3 percent of Yahoo leagues
Losing Adrian Peterson hurts Teddy Bridgewater’s outlook and losing Kyle Rudolph (groin) certainly doesn’t help either. Teddy profiles as game-managing, mistake-free kind of quarterback – not the vertical gunslinger OC Norv Turner likes. Without a running game to threaten defenses, the Vikings are going to continue to struggle to put points on the board and Bridgewater isn’t going to come up with a lot of fantasy points via his legs. In four preseason appearances, he rushed a total of three times for five years. Blake Bortles’ aggression can be seen in his 16.1 yards per completion (including preseason). Teddy is at 10.3 yards per completion.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
5. Mike Glennon, Bucs – Owned in 1 percent of Yahoo leagues
Wait, you mean a 35-year-old journeyman who had a good stretch for QB whisperer Marc Trestman isn’t actually a good quarterback? No way. Josh McCown (thumb) is sidelined for now, but don’t be surprised if Mike Glennon is more effective anyway. As a rookie, he went over 200 yards in six of his 13 starts and threw 19 touchdowns against nine interceptions. The Bucs have since added Mike Evans. Glennon gets to face a bad and beat up Steelers defense in Week 4.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 2-quarterback leagues
Watch List: Charlie Whitehurst, Zach Mettenberger, Matt Moore, Austin Davis, Johnny Manziel, Michael Vick – Jake Locker’s injured his throwing wrist Sunday. Whitehurst is the backup, but Mettenberger was pretty impressive in the preseason. … There’s suddenly a quarterback controversy in Miami with Ryan Tannehill regressing. Moore is one of the better backups in the NFL. … Austin Davis owns a 72.3 completion percentage and 93.1 passer rating. The Rams can’t go back to Shaun Hill after the bye. … The Browns are 1-2 heading to the bye. It doesn’t look like they’ll make the switch to Johnny Football yet. … We know that if Vick gets to start games, he’ll help fantasy owners.
RUNNING BACKS
1. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers – Owned in 36 percent of Yahoo leagues
The seas are parting for DeAngelo Williams. He’s expected back from a thigh injury for Week 4, which is perfect timing for the Panthers. Jonathan Stewart could be out a month with a sprained knee and Mike Tolbert is out at least a month with a leg fracture. When Stewart was sidelined for the first seven games last year, Williams averaged 16.2 carries for 68.1 yards and caught 13 passes for 121 yards. He only scored one touchdown during that span, but will have more TD upside during this stretch because Cam Newton is nursing a rib injury and goal-line back Tolbert is out. Williams is shaping up as a value play on FanDuel this week at only $5700.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team leagues
2. Lorenzo Taliaferro, Ravens – Owned in 7 percent of Yahoo leagues
Lorezno Taliaferro seized his big opportunity Sunday, rushing 18 times for 91 yards with a touchdown as the Ravens won in Cleveland. Is he the best back early-down, inside running back for the Ravens? Maybe. Bernard Pierce has been bad since the beginning of last season, failing to show the vision and cutback ability needed for this Gary Kubiak scheme. He’ll likely start once he’s over his thigh injury, but the leash projects to be very short. Taliaferro, a no-nonsense north-south fourth-round pick out of Coastal Carolina, needs to at least be stashed. There’s a good chance he’ll be very startable when the Ravens travel to Indy in Week 5. “He was running downhill, physical and was hard to tackle,” coach John Harbaugh said Sunday night about Taliaferro. “That is an element that is a big plus for an offense.”
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
3. Alfred Blue, Texans – Owned in 24 percent of Yahoo leagues
Arian Foster was a surprise scratch Sunday morning due to a hamstring strain that has been bothering him since the very beginning of training camp. I think it’s fair to call this a chronic issue, one that certainly isn’t helped by the massive workloads coach Bill O’Brien put on him the first two weeks. Even if Foster can return for this week’s game against the Bills, sustaining health is going to be a major issue here. Enter Alfred Blue, who started and got 13 carries in Week 3 while Ronnie Brown got three and Jonathan Grimes got one. Blue, clearly the backup here, needs to be owned for both now and the future. Note that the Texans face DAL, IND, PIT and TEN in Weeks 5-8 – a dream slate for running backs.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
4. Isaiah Crowell, Browns – Owned in 18 percent of Yahoo leagues
What’s going to happen when the Browns come out of their bye and Ben Tate (knee) is ready to go? Most likely, he’ll get his starting job back and lose some work to Terrance West. But that doesn’t mean we can’t gain value by holding Crowell, who is averaging 5.22 YPC and scored three times on 27 rushes so far this season. A talented and physical runner, he’s earned a role and outplayed West by a wide margin in Week 3. And if we look closely at Tate’s injury history, we know another major opportunity isn’t far away.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper 12-team leagues
5. Darrin Reaves, Panthers – Owned in 0 percent of Yahoo leagues
Jonathan Stewart (knee) and Mike Tolbert (leg) are both out, and DeAngelo Williams (hamstring) and Fozzy Whittaker (quad) are questionable. So that leaves Darrin Reaves, a 5’7/209 UDFA rookie out of UAB, as the last man standing. We know very little about Reaves, as he missed most of the preseason due to a knee injury and has zero regular-season carries. He didn’t get an invite to the Combine, but did run a solid 4.54 with a 10-foot-3 broad jump at his pro day. Bottom line is that there’s athleticism and an opportunity here.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper 12-team leagues
6. Branden Oliver, Chargers – Owned in 0 percent of Yahoo leagues
First, the Chargers lost Ryan Matthews (knee) for 4-5 weeks, then they lost Danny Woodhead (ankle) for the season and on Monday, the Cardinals stole Marion Grice off the Chargers’ practice squad. So now it’s just Donald Brown, Branden Oliver and whoever they bring in off the street. The 5-foot-8 Oliver was spectacular during the preseason, looking a little like Darren Sproles while rushing 35 times for 161 yards with a touchdown. Giving the ball to Donald Brown 31 times on the ground and targeting him six times as the Chargers did in Week 3 just isn’t realistic, so Oliver is going to get his touches.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
7. Jerick McKinnon, Vikings – Owned in 18 percent of Yahoo leagues
The Vikings had a week to develop a plan without Adrian Peterson. They decided to give Matt Asiata 40 snaps and 12 carries vs. 17 snaps and two carries for Jerick McKinnon. It’s clear the Vikings don’t trust McKinnon enough as a runner or in pass protection, because it’s blatantly clear Asiata isn’t going to give them anything besides reliability. McKinnon is still a stash for deep leaguers thanks to unique athletic ability. He’s also one injury away from the Vikings having no chance but to give him a shot.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
Watch List: Stepfan Taylor, James Starks, Denard Robinson – Andre Ellington’s foot is looking good heading into the bye, but Taylor looks like the direct backup. … Starks is your weekly reminder to handcuff properly. Jamaal Charles that didn’t have Knile Davis were kicking themselves Sunday. … Denard Robinson is creeping a little on struggling Toby Gerhart by showing well in garbage time.
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Allen Robinson, Jaguars – Owned in 2 percent of Yahoo leagues
Blake Bortles is about to change the face of this offense. Instead of a conservative scheme that takes sacks and can’t push the ball downfield, they’re about to get an aggressive, strong-armed rookie in there. It helps everyone from Toby Gerhart to the receivers. Allen Robinson is especially intriguing as Marqise Lee is injured and fallen out of favor with the coaches. Robinson, an athletic marvel with unique leaping ability, was a second-round pick for a reason and shouldn’t have trouble pushing ahead of Allen Hurns. Here’s Robinson’s snap count progression: 20 in Week 1, 30 in Week 2 and 42 in Week 3. He's turned his last 16 targets into 11-154-0. Expect to see him opposite Cecil Shorts a ton going forward.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
2. Jordan Matthews, Eagles – Owned in 18 percent of Yahoo leagues
Jordan Matthews had a breakout kind of game against the Redskins, roasting their linebackers for two touchdowns up the seam and finishing with eight catches. Don’t expect that kind of production weekly though, as the Eagles have happened to fall behind big in the first two games also and Matthews totaled just 3-54-0. He’s still not playing in two-wide sets and Nick Foles has a ton of mouths to feed. The rookie is higher on the list this week because he faces off with burnable 49ers slot corner Jimmie Ward in Week 4.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper 12-team leagues
3. Davante Adams, Packers – Owned in 7 percent of Yahoo leagues
Davante Adams only caught two passes for 11 yards and caught the ire of Aaron Rodgers for running a bad route in Week 3, but Jarrett Boykin also dropped two more catchable balls. The final snap count was 36 for Boykin and 35 for Adams. We’ve got an all-out rotation here, with week-to-week competition for No. 3 wideout duties. Both players need to be on benches while it sorts out, but Adams is the better stash as the one with the higher ceiling.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
4. Marvin Jones, Bengals – Owned in 15 percent of Yahoo leagues
Marvin Jones was going to be one of my Favorite Fliers until a nightmare offseason and preseason. First his hurt his ankle and then he broke his foot. But now the playmaker is nearing a return and is expected to be ready to contribute following the Week 4 bye. He’ll likely start off behind an improved Mohamed Sanu, but should eventually push Sanu into a slot role. Jones posted a 51-712-10 line while playing just 50.0 percent of the snaps last season.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
5. John Brown, Cardinals – Owned in 8 percent of Yahoo leagues
I know everyone is excited about John Brown as a T.Y. Hilton type for Bruce Arians. He has three touchdowns in his first three NFL games. But this is a No. 3 receiver playing just 53.3 percent of the snaps with either Drew Stanton or a dead-Carson Palmer. Brown will be a fine real-life asset for the Cardinals, but a boom-or-bust play for fantasy owners.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper 14-team leagues
Watch List: Odell Beckham, Donte Moncrief, Andre Holmes, Philly Brown, Santonio Holmes – Beckham (hamstring) isn’t expected back Thursday, but is getting closer. The Giants run more three-wide sets than anyone. … Moncrief is a name to monitor if T.Y. Hilton’s ankle issue pops up. … Holmes should see a boost in playing time with Rod Streater sidelined. … Philly Brown is the No. 2 wideout when Jerricho Cotchery sits because Jason Avant can’t play. … Anytime Brandon Marshall (ankle) sits, Holmes will get on the WR3 radar thanks to Trestman’s system.
TIGHT ENDS
1. Travis Kelce, Chiefs – Owned in 48 percent of Yahoo leagues
Travis Kelce is my No. 1 add at tight end for the fourth straight week. I take it as a personal insult that he’s still only owned in 48 percent of leagues. Kelce’s snap count has gone from 19 in Week 1 to 32 in Week 2 to 47 on Sunday. He’s turned 15 targets into a 10-166-1 line, showing special skills after the catch and demanding more usage. The big, national TV breakout game could very well be coming on Monday Night Football against the Patriots.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team leagues
2. Niles Paul, Redskins – Owned in 43 percent of Yahoo leagues
It’s way past time for 57 percent of owners to wake up on Niles Paul. The converted wideout is doing unique things on the field, like scoring on a goal-line fade (Week 2) and getting targeted on a deep wheel route on a 3rd-and-1 (Week 3). We don’t know when Jordan Reed (hamstring) will be back, but we do know he didn’t practice at all last week, has a long injury history and the ’Skins play on Thursday this week. Just be aware that when Reed does return, he projects to reclaim his starting job. The Redskins were too excited about his role this offseason to just give up.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team leagues
3. Larry Donnell, Giants – Owned in 40 percent of Yahoo leagues
Eli Manning has targeted Larry Donnell 23 times through three games, more than anyone else. It’s clear he has a liking for this slow-footed yet athletic tight end and the target count doesn’t project to slow down. Donnell has 18 catches already on the year and was on his way to his second touchdown when he lost a fumble Sunday. Upcoming matchups with the Redskins, Falcons, Eagles and Cowboys range from plus to dreamy.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team leagues
4. Ladarius Green, Chargers – Owned in 40 percent of Yahoo leagues
Ladarius Green is not on this list because his role suddenly changed or Antonio Gates got hurt. He’s on it because he’s facing the Jaguars on Sunday. In Week 1, Zach Ertz and Brent Celek combined for 6-62-1 against the Jags. In Week 2, Niles Paul gave them 8-99-1. Week 3, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen netted 8-92-2. The point is that the Jags are right there with the Cardinals and Cowboys in terms of the teams that can’t defend the tight end. Green is only going to play 20-30 snaps and Gates is usually featured in the red zone, but Ladarius owners at least have the right matchup this week. And the real payoff on a stash will come if Gates goes down.
Recommendation: Should be considered as a Week 4 plug-n-play
5. Owen Daniels, Ravens – Owned in 26 percent of Yahoo leagues
Dennis Pitta (hip) is done for the year and Gary Kubiak is still going to want to feature the tight end in his passing game. So now the question becomes what does Owen Daniels have left in the tank? To be frank, not much. Now 31 years old and coming off a 2013 fractured leg, Daniels is averaging 7.0 yards per reception on the season and can’t separate from anyone. He’ll get some volume and some red-zone chances thanks to this scheme that he knows so well from the Houston days with Kubiak, but the ceiling is not going to be very high – especially in Week 4 against a Panthers defense that figures to bounce back. He’s a plug-n-play for the desperate, although a Week 15 home game against the Jags is exciting if he makes it that long. Versatile FB Kyle Juszczyk and WR Marlon Brown will also be asked to full some of Pitta’s production.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper 12-team leagues
Watch List: Dwayne Allen, Andrew Quarless, Garrett Graham, Jared Cook, Austin Seferian –Jenkins, Levine Toilolo – Allen had a nice day in Week 3, but it came against the Jags. See the Ladarius Green entry for how much that means. Allen is not a featured player in this scheme, but I do prefer him to Coby Fleener. … Quarless played 32 snaps Sunday, compared to 11 for Richard Rodgers and zero for Brandon Bostick. … Most of Graham’s Week 3 production came in garbage time. Expect a much closer game when Buffalo comes to town Sunday. … Cook had his good game of the year against the Cowboys and still dropped a touchdown. Rams on a bye this week. … ASJ’s foot could be ready for Week 4 and Brandon Myers can’t run. It’s time for a youth movement in Tampa. … Toilolo always has a shot in the dark at a touchdown.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
1. Dolphins – Owned in 15 percent of Yahoo leagues
The Dolphins are currently tied for third in the league in sacks and have one of the game’s better run defenses. Now they get to play the Raiders. I typically shy away from stream spots that aren't at home (this game is in London), but I can’t pass up an opportunity to attack a Raiders team that ranks dead last in total offense, 28th in passing yards, dead last in rushing yards and dead last in points per game.
2. Chargers – Owned in 9 percent of Yahoo leagues
Hopefully you added my No. 1 waiver defense last week, the Chargers. As explained here, part of the reason was due to the upcoming schedule. The Chargers get to face Jacksonville at home this week, then the Jets at home before a road game at Oakland. It’s a dream stretch for streamers. This week would be a better spot if it was against Chad Henne instead of Blake Bortles, but it’s still a very plus situation.
3. Ravens – Owned in 47 percent of Yahoo leagues
I trust Vegas a lot when looking to stream. This week, they have the Ravens as a three-point favorite over the Panthers with a league-low over/under of 39. Essentially, they’re projecting the Panthers to score just 18 points. That’s enough for me to fire them up in leagues where you’re rewarded heavily for points allowed.
4. Redskins – Owned in 5 percent of Yahoo leagues
There’s a lot to like about the ’Skins this week. First, they play at home in the Thursday night game, always a massive advantage for defenses. Second, their run defense is big and strong, bordering on dominant while holding Arian Foster, Toby Gerhart and LeSean McCoy to 133 yards combined on 49 carries (2.71 YPC) so far. And finally, Eli Manning is always a threat for a multiple interception game even though he’s been solid for two straight weeks. The Redskins should be able to mask an already poor pass defense that will be without DeAngelo Hall (heel).
KICKERS
1. Cody Parkey, Eagles – Owned in 36 percent of Yahoo leagues
I’m surprised Parkey is so lightly owned considering the rabid-pace offense he plays for and the Eagles’ struggles in the red zone. The rookie has already made eight field goals and 11 extra points through three games while missing just one. Going on the road to San Francisco isn’t quite ideal, but expect plenty of opportunities.
2. Shaun Suisham, Steelers – Owned in 25 percent of Yahoo leagues
The Steelers offense showed it’s matchup-proof on Sunday night by going into Carolina and hanging a 37. Now they get to come home and face the Bucs, meaning chances should be easy to come by. Shaun Suisham has matured into one of the game’s most accurate kickers, going 66-of-71 (92.9 percent) over the last three seasons. That includes three makes from 50-plus.
3. Shayne Graham, Saints – Owned in 22 percent of Yahoo leagues
Shayne Graham hurt streamers in Week 3 by getting an extra point blocked and netting zero field-goal attempts. It doesn’t mean we should bail on our process. He’s a proven accurate kicker in an explosive offense and gets to play in the kicker-friendly confines of AT&T Stadium this week. The Saints/Cowboys game has the week’s highest total (53).
4. Matt Prater, Broncos –Owned in 28 percent of Yahoo leagues
It’s rare I would ever carry two kickers on my roster. But if you’re in a really deep league and can afford it, Matt Prater will come off suspension for Week 6. He was fantasy’s No. 2 kicker last year, trailing only Stephen Gostkowski of the Patriots. At the very least, get Prater on your watch list.
