Waiver Wire: Week 13
Week 12 was the quietest week I can ever recall in terms of injuries. Typically that means a bad week on the wire, but there is actually a lot to talk about this week at both running back and wide receiver. Depth charts are still churning, even as Thanksgiving approaches.
On to all the Week 13 assets. Here is how I would rank the players available in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues right now. Notes and recommendations on each player will follow.
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Quarterbacks
1. Josh McCown
2. Kyle Orton
3. Brian Hoyer
Running backs
1. Dan Herron
2. Latavius Murray
3. LeGarrette Blount
4. Pierre Thomas
5. Andre Williams
6. Doug Martin
Wide receivers
1. Kenny Stills
2. Jarvis Landry
3. John Brown
4. Charles Johnson
5. Kenny Britt
Tight ends
1. Jordan Cameron
2. Kyle Rudolph
3. Tim Wright
Defense/Special Teams
1. Rams
2. Giants
3. Ravens
4. Vikings
Kickers
1. Shaun Suisham
2. Matt Bryant
3. Blair Walsh
QUARTERBACKS
1. Josh McCown, Bucs – Owned in 33 percent of Yahoo leagues
Since regaining the starting job three weeks ago, Josh McCown is averaging 310.0 passing yards per game with five touchdowns against four interceptions. He’s also rushed 13 times for 59 yards during that span. Now McCown gets to come home and face a Bengals team on its third straight road game. It’s a nice spot for Mike Evans to keep his touchdown streak alive and McCown to go over 300 yards again. We know the Bucs aren’t going to be able to do anything on the ground with their broken run game.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper 12-team leagues
2. Kyle Orton, Bills – Owned in 13 percent of Yahoo leagues
Predictably putting the brutal Thursday night Week 11 game at Miami behind him, Kyle Orton lit up the Jets for 230 yards and two touchdowns with a 115.4 passer rating on Monday night. He now has a 12:3 TD-to-INT ratio on the year and is averaging 258.5 yards per game. Orton makes for a decent QB2 against the Browns in Week 13 and should get plenty of catch-up chances in Week 14 (at DEN) and Week 15 (vs. GB).
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper 12-team leagues
3. Brian Hoyer, Browns – Owned in 16 percent of Yahoo leagues
Brian Hoyer was terrible in Sunday’s win at Atlanta, consistently making terrible decisions and inaccurate throws while tossing three picks. That said, he went over 300 yards for the third time in four games and relentlessly targeted Josh Gordon – a strategy that will pay dividends. Hoyer could also very well get Jordan Cameron (concussion) back this week. Hoyer is in play for owners in two-quarterback leagues even in a tough spot at the Ralph in Week 13.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
Watch List: Zach Mettenberger, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Colt McCoy, Drew Stanton – Mettenberger used a fluky deflection and garbage time to put up a nice fantasy line against an Eagles team that bleeds fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. I wouldn’t go chasing him at Houston too strongly. … Speaking of Houston, Ryan Mallett’s season-ending injury puts either Fitzpatrick or Tom Savage in the saddle. Yawn. … If Robert Griffin III gets benched, McCoy would be a QB2 option. … Stanton had no shot at Seattle. He has a little bit of a shot at Atlanta.
RUNNING BACKS
1. Daniel Herron, Colts – Owned in 23 percent of Yahoo leagues
Trent Richardson and the Colts beat writers think that Dan Herron started Sunday’s win over the Jags because T-Rich was sick and missed some practice time. I’m not buying it. But the reality is that it doesn’t really matter – the Colts coaches wisely don’t want to expand Richardson’s role in the wake of Ahmad Bradshaw’s season-ending injury. It was bad enough that T-Rich was already limiting the offense on 15.2 touches per game. So now we have Herron stepping into what projects as an even timeshare in the league’s No. 1 offense. That resulted in a 12-carry, five-catch showing against the Jags for a very solid 96 total yards. It’s realistic that Herron can produce at a similar clip to Bradshaw, at least in terms of the touches and yardage. That was 12.8 touches for 72.5 yards a day.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team leagues
2. Latavius Murray, Raiders – Owned in 25 percent of Yahoo leagues
Latavius Murray managed to humiliate both the Chiefs and the Raiders last Thursday night. Everyone with a brain knew that the 0-10 Raiders should have benched Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden long ago, giving Murray a chance. For a reason unknown to intelligent society, the Raiders refused. But when they finally did, he turned four carries into 112 yards with two touchdowns before getting concussed. The athletic freak moves at a different pace than the other backs and is here to stay as the feature back once cleared from his concussion. Anything less would be unacceptable. Murray is behind Herron as an add for me because of a tough schedule to close the fantasy season: at STL, vs. SF, at KC, vs. BUF.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team leagues
3. LeGarrette Blount, Patriots – Owned in 31 percent of Yahoo leagues
What if Jonas Gray wasn’t late to practice last Friday? Would he have been the one going 12-78-2 against the Lions Sunday? We’ll never know, but it looks like Gray has blown his chance. Blount, a perfect power fit in New England who scored eight touchdowns in a three-game late-season stretch for Bill Belichick last year, took advantage of the opportunity. Now the newly signed, former Cheech and Chong Steeler gets a game against a Packers team that is far more susceptible to the run than the pass. It’s very likely that the Patriots take a more power-based approach than spread philosophy this week, suddenly placing Blount on the high-risk, high-reward flex radar.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team leagues
4. Pierre Thomas, Saints – Owned in 37 percent of Yahoo leagues
It’s not that Mark Ingram isn’t a very, very good running back. He has been all year, dating back to the preseason. The issue is that this Saints offense needs what Pierre Thomas can bring and Sean Payton knows it – as evidenced by an even 11-11 touch split between PT and Ingram on Monday night. Thomas, now averaging 4.5 catches per game on the season, is a must-add for owners in full-PPR formats.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team PPR leagues
5. Andre Williams, Giants – Owned in 38 percent of Yahoo leagues
We saw some interesting usage from the Giants on Sunday night. A healthy Rashad Jennings was the clear-cut feature back, but Andre Williams still got a few series to himself, finishing with 10 carries and one catch. He also fumbled near the goal-line (a play that was subsequently overturned by replay), yet Tom Coughlin surprisingly didn’t yank the rookie who then converted for a touchdown. Although Williams is a limited liability to me, the coaches clearly like him. Considering the next three opponents (JAX, TEN, WAS), Williams has some desperation appeal.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
6. Doug Martin, Bucs – Owned in 44 percent of Yahoo league
Word broke on Saturday that Doug Martin got “many” of the first-team reps in practice last week as he came off an ankle injury. He proceeded to start against the Bears, out-touching Charles Sims 12-8 and out-snapping him 28-26. An even timeshare makes some sense here as Sims was brought in to be a passing back complement and only has three NFL games under his belt. That leaves Martin as a desperation RB3/4 and Sims as a PPR RB3.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues
Watch List: Robert Turbin, Branden Oliver, Knile Davis – Marshawn Lynch’s back is balky and Turbin is clearly ahead of Christine Michael. … Ryan Mathews’ brief shoulder issue Sunday is enough reason to keep Oliver rostered. We know Mathews’ injury history. … Davis is your weekly reminder to handcuff wherever possible at this point in the season. It’s not limited to RB either – Tim Wright, Marquess Wilson and Cody Latimer can be considered handcuffs also.
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Kenny Stills, Saints – Owned in 34 percent of Yahoo leagues
In the first game since Brandin Cook’s season-ending thumb injury, Stills set career-highs in catches (8) and targets (9). So even though he only played on 67.5 percent of the snaps, the way he was used changed. Instead of just running the clear-out routes a la Robert Meachem/Devery Henderson, he got high-percentage looks and predictably did well with them. One of the more efficient receivers in football, Stills is a solid WR3 the rest of the way. Check out this upcoming schedule: at PIT, vs. CAR, at CHI, vs. ATL. And for those on FanDuel, note that Stills somehow costs just $5100 this week.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
2. Jarvis Landry, Dolphins – Owned in 20 percent of Yahoo leagues
Over the last four weeks, Jarvis Landry leads the Dolphins with 32 targets. Mike Wallace is second with 28, Brian Hartline has fallen off the map with 14 and Brandon Gibson is at 13. Clearly becoming a favorite of quietly impressive Ryan Tannehill, slot man Landry is averaging 6.0 catches for 48.7 yards with four touchdowns during that span. Now he gets a Monday night game against a brutal Jets secondary followed by a plus matchup with a Ravens secondary that is down to bare bones. Landry is a weekly WR3 play, especially in PPR formats.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
3. John Brown, Cardinals – Owned in 32 percent of Yahoo leagues
Adding to the best rookie receiving class the NFL has ever seen, John Brown has quietly been a beast with a limited role as the No. 3 receiver for the Cardinals. The T.Y. Hilton comparable finally got to spread his wings in Week 12 thanks to Larry Fitzgerald’s knee injury, but unfortunately it came in an impossible spot at Seattle. He still went 3-61-0 on five targets while playing 74.5 percent of the snaps. Now Fitzgerald is highly questionable again, this time with the Cardinals getting set to face Atlanta’s league-worst pass defense. Even with Drew Stanton under center, Brown will be a borderline WR3 if he draws the start in this matchup.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
4. Charles Johnson, Vikings – Owned in 1 percent of Yahoo leagues
I thought that Charles Johnson would need an injury to either Greg Jennings or Jarius Wright to be a factor in Minnesota. I was wrong. The coaches clearly want Johnson to have a role right now, playing him on 67-of-69 snaps in Week 12 even though Jennings (62 snaps), Cordarrelle Patterson (33 snaps) and Wright (8 snaps) were all active. Over the last two weeks, Johnson has turned a team-high 18 targets into 9-139-1 – and that’s with Teddy Bridgewater playing about as poorly as he can play. Johnson, from tiny Grand Valley State, is a player we’ve been tracking for a while now thanks to a prototypical 6’2/217 frame and 4.38 speed. Finally getting his big chance, there’s upside heading into a nice Week 13 home matchup against Carolina’s poor corners.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
5. Kenny Britt, Rams – Owned in 27 percent of Yahoo leagues
Against the Broncos’ very good corners in Week 11, Kenny Britt went 4-128-1 on seven targets. His box score wasn’t pretty in Week 12 against the Chargers (2-37-0 on six targets), but he get a 51-yard touchdown called back due to a facemask penalty on RT Joe Barksdale. Now Britt gets a home game against a Raiders defense that ranks 30th in passer rating against. We’ve all been burned by Britt frustration before, but he’s a WR4 option in this spot.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper 12-team leagues
Watch List: Robert Woods, Stedman Bailey, Andre Holmes, Malcom Floyd, Justin Hunter, Donte Moncrief, Marquess Wilson – With the Jets shading coverage toward Sammy Watkins, Woods got loose. It’s not something I’d bet on going forward. … Bailey is a part-time player in the Rams’ muddled pass game. … I’m never going to give up on Holmes’ skill set, especially when he’s getting 8.0 targets per game as he has the last two weeks. … The Rams’ pass rush kept Philip Rivers from looking long to Floyd. He shouldn’t have a problem getting open against the Ravens this week. … Don’t be fooled by Hunter’s nice box score against the Eagles. His 40-yard TD came on a deflection and he remains brutally inefficient. … Moncrief quietly played more snaps than Hakeem Nicks in Week 12. If Moncrief ever gets back up around 60-70 percent of the snaps, he’ll explode. … Wilson is the clear-cut No. 3 receiver in Chicago and should be grabbed by Alshon Jeffery/Brandon Marshall owners.
TIGHT ENDS
1. Jordan Cameron, Browns – Owned in 46 percent of Yahoo leagues
Jordan Cameron has suffered three concussions in the last two years. But after consulting with doctors, he’s been assured he’s not in danger of long-term issues and has decided to keep playing. As of right now, he appears on track to return in Week 13, which will immediately make him a TE1. Although Cameron has had a wildly disappointing year, he’ll see tons of single coverage with Josh Gordon back and has the athletic skill set to dominate 1-on-1 matchups.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
2. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings – Owned in 47 percent of Yahoo leagues
A lot of owners got burned in Week 11, Rudolph’s first game off sports hernia surgery. He played on just 14 snaps and didn’t catch a pass. But after shaking some rust off, he put up a 3-50-0 line on 61 snaps in Week 12. Clearly back to 100 percent, Rudolph now gets a reasonable home spot against the Panthers. As a red-zone threat and one that can play in the slot, he’ll be a borderline top-12 TE option.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
3. Tim Wright, Patriots – Owned in 16 percent of Yahoo leagues
Coming into Week 12, Tim Wright’s season-high for snaps was 21. Against the Lions, he played on 61 snaps as the Patriots went “12” more than they have all year and also spread the offense to avoid the league’s No. 1 run defense. So now the question is if Wright’s Week 12 usage is a sign of things to come or a one-week mirage. I lean toward mirage, especially in the short-term with a game at Lambeau on deck – the way to attack the Packers is via the run not the air. But given the ridiculously thin state of the position and Wright’s wideout-like skill set, he’s worth an add to see what develops. Unlike most of the tight ends in the league, Wright is at least capable of winning a week when he’s featured – and I’d bet the Patriots go pass-heavy against the Jets in Week 16, fantasy Super Bowl week. There’s also an added bonus of Wright getting a massive boost if Rob Gronkowski were to go down.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
Watch List: Mychal Rivera, Jared Cook, Niles Paul, Eric Ebron – Rivera needs volume to be effective and it’s really hard to bet on that. Especially in what should be a low-scoring game at St. Louis. … Jared Cook has another good matchup, but we know he’s unlikely to take advantage. … If Jordan Reed (hamstring) sits again, Niles Paul would intrigue me as a bounce-back player with potential for garbage-time stats against Indy. He played on 69.6 percent of the snaps last week and ran 20 pass routes. … Eric Ebron is averaging 4.6 targets per game over his last five outings, yet is still barely a TE2. That’s how bad he’s been.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
1. Rams – Owned in 42 percent of Yahoo leagues
I discussed the Rams’ surging D/ST in this space last week. I mostly liked them for this upcoming Week 13 home spot against the Raiders, but they showed that they can produce for us even in difficult spots on the back of a dominant defensive line. Over the last two weeks the Rams have faced Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers, and held them to a combined two touchdowns and three interceptions. Now they get to face Derek Carr and a Raiders team bound to fall back to earth after their first win.
2. Giants – Owned in 10 percent of Yahoo leagues
Blake Bortles has scarily entered the Gabbert Zone of late, failing to complete 60 percent of his passes in four of the last five games and sporting a hideous 8:15 TD-to-INT ratio on the season. This Jags offense is simply crumbling with no hope in sight. So even though the spot isn’t great for the Giants as they’re on the road off an emotional loss to the Cowboys, Bortles’ error-prone ways make NYG a play.
3. Ravens – Owned in 46 percent of Yahoo leagues
The Ravens may have been dropped as they had to play at New Orleans on Monday night. We can scoop them back up for a 1pm ET start against a Chargers team that is traveling across the country with a battered Philip Rivers. The Ravens’ talent woes at corner can be masked a bit by their run defense, pass rush and safety play – as seen in the Superdome.
4. Vikings – Owned in 16 percent of Yahoo leagues
I know readers have appreciated the “stash” options I’ve put in this space. Unfortunately, there’s not a lot for Week 14 that is under 50 percent owned I really love. Options that might be available (but are over 50 percent I’d stash include Houston (at JAX) and Green Bay (vs. ATL). If those aren’t available, a middling Vikings defense at home against a turnover- and mistake-prone Jets team fits the bill.
KICKERS
1. Shaun Suisham, Steelers – Owned in 35 percent of Yahoo leagues
Shaun Suisham has been a fine option all year, going 18-of-20 on field goals and getting at least two attempts in 7-of-11 games. The Steelers figure to move the ball all day Sunday as they come out of a bye against a Saints team on a short week.
2. Matt Bryant, Falcons – Owned in 33 percent of Yahoo leagues
Matt Bryant stayed hot in Week 12, hitting from 53 yards out for his ninth field goal in the last three weeks. He’s at home in the dome again this week and the Falcons have no prayer of running the ball against the Cardinals. That should lead to some red-zone sputtering.
3. Blair Walsh, Vikings – Owned in 32 percent of Yahoo leagues
One of the game’s best long-range kickers, Blair Walsh has two makes from 50+ in the last two weeks and five on the season. He also has at least two attempts in four of the last five games as Teddy Bridgewater’s struggles continue. Walsh gets a home game against a Panthers defense that can be exploited this week.
