Unreliable Red Zone Receivers

The flip side of the wide receivers who dominated in the red zone in 2014 are those who could not have found the end zone even if led there by the most experienced cicerone. For some of these hapless receivers, their red-zone impotence was just a blip on an otherwise solid career. For others, it represented the latest in a long history of red-zone failure. Clues to how these receivers will fare in 2015 can be found in either possibility.

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Demaryius Thomas

Of wide receivers with at least five red-zone targets in 2014, 45 failed to convert 20% of those looks. Of all surprising names on that list, Demaryius Thomas might be the most shocking simply because he did not have the built in quarterback excuse so many of the other big names possessed.

Hobbled as he may have been, Peyton Manning was still one of the best quarterbacks in the league last year, and Thomas could only haul in six of the 39 passes Manning threw his way in the red zone. Emmanuel Sanders, who is four inches shorter and 43 pounds lighter, converted 30% of his red-zone looks last season, and Julius Thomas converted 60% of his chances.

The good news is this is likely just a one-year dip for Thomas. He converted 32% of his red-zone targets the first two years Manning was in Denver, and he has the athletic profile of a player who should have a well above-average conversion rate.

The bad news is Thomas is very unlikely to lead the league in red-zone targets again. If he hopes to remain among the elite touchdowns scorers at the position, he will have to become much more efficient in the red zone. He can certainly do that, but a fourth straight season of double-digit touchdowns for Thomas is less likely than it might appear.

Andre Johnson

A name which some may be shocked to see on this list is Andre Johnson, but this list is exactly where he belongs. The clear alpha receiver in Houston over the last decade, Johnson saw at least 10 red-zone targets in nine of the 12 years he was with the Texans including five seasons with more than 15 and three with more than 20. Despite all of those opportunities, Johnson has never once reached double-digit touchdowns in a single season, and he only has one year with nine.

Johnson, though, has a built in excuse for his career 22% red-zone conversion rate – which is the rate Antonio Brown and his 5-10, 180-pound frame managed last season. The quarterbacks the Texans paired with Johnson throughout his career have been simply atrocious. The six quarterbacks Andre Johnson has caught touchdown passes from in his career are David Carr, Tony Banks, Sage Rosenfels, Matt Schaub, Case Keenum and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Not even the Raiders are jealous of that list.

Regardless of quarterback play, it is concerning Johnson has managed a better than 17% conversion rate once in the last four years. Andrew Luck can certainly help, but how much growth can be expected from a receiver who will be 34-years-old when the season begins? Projections of eight or more touchdowns for Johnson are very aggressive. A repeat of Reggie Wayne’s five-touchdown performance in 2012 is a more likely outcome.

Julio Jones

Another surprising name which should be anything but is Julio Jones, who has scored just 12 of his 26 career touchdowns inside the red zone and has converted three of his last 21 red-zone targets into touchdowns. An injured and aging Roddy White has seven red-zone scores and a 27% conversion rate over that same period.

Julio did convert 35% of his red-zone chances in 2012, and he has the physical profile of a player who should dominate in close. At some point, though, that profile has to turn into reality, and if Jones is going to have the breakout season many are expecting, he will have to become a more dominant scorer in the red zone.

Kelvin Benjamin

Considering Kelvin Benjamin caught just 50% of his total targets last season, it should not be terribly surprising he converted only 18% of his red-zone looks. Despite being 6-5, 240, Benjamin has inconsistent hands and is not particularly adept at creating separation in tight areas. Even more than other wide receivers, his targets should tend to be of the contested variety as he nears the end zone, and those will always have a lower conversion rate than open looks.

Despite those issues, it stands to reason Benjamin will be more efficient in 2015. It would be difficult for a player of his size to do worse, and Cam Newton has actually been pretty good in the red zone the last two years, converting 25.7% of his red-zone passes into touchdowns. That is a better rate than Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Drew Brees over the same span.

Benjamin is never going to be an efficient player, but his natural abilities should make him much more efficient around the end zone. Though a loss in opportunities is likely on the horizon, that potential increase in efficiency could keep Benjamin in the nine touchdown range.

Jordy Nelson

It is not often two of Aaron Rodgers’ receivers end up on a least efficient list, but that is exactly the case for Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams. Adams had a wholly inefficient year which likely left even his most ardent supporters concerned, but Nelson is the real story.

With perhaps the best body control in the league and excellent ball skills, Nelson is the type of player who should be very good in the red zone, but his efficiently close to the end zone has been on a concerning downward trend. Nelson has seen a precipitous drop in red-zone efficiency over the last three years, falling steadily from 47% in 2011 to 18% last season.

Through volume and long touchdowns Nelson has managed to maintain his touchdown production despite the efficiency drop off, but coming of hip surgery and entering his age-30 season, it is fair to wonder if Nelson has peaked. He is extremely hard to fade simply because of how good this offense can be, but there are reasons for concern.

Vincent Jackson

It would be easy to assume the reason Vincent Jackson scored just two touchdowns in 2014 is because of bad quarterback play and a lack of offensive opportunities, but neither excuse holds up to statistical scrutiny.

Despite the Bucs scoring the fourth fewest points in the league last season, Jackson was targeted 14 times inside the red zone. It was not the 20 and 19 Jackson saw his first two seasons in Tampa Bay, but it was the 25th most in the league last season and only one less than Mike Evans. The opportunities were there.

Jackson also cannot blame quarterback play entirely for his disappointing season. Josh McCown and Mike Glennon combined to covert 23% of their red-zone passes into touchdowns, which is slightly above league average. Playing with the same quarterbacks, Evans managed to convert 40% of his red-zone looks.

The reality is Jackson is getting older. He has seen his red-zone efficiency fall each of the last three years, and there has been a clear downward trend since his peak in 2009. The 35% conversion rate player Jackson was when he came to Tampa Bay just does not exist anymore, and with Evans poised to become an even bigger factor in the offense, Jackson’s days as an eight touchdown player are likely over.

Larry Fitzgerald

Pour some out for Larry Fitzgerald. Once a touchdown specialist who converted 37.6% of his red-zone looks over the first six years of his career, Fitzgerald has become useless near the end zone recently. He has converted just 17 of his last 100 red-zone looks including zero last year, and he has not had a conversion rate above 25% in the last five years.

Quarterback play can certainly shoulder some of the blame for his lack of production, but, like Jackson and Nelson, Fitzgerald’s ability to create space in short areas is likely diminishing as he ages. Entering his age-32 season, there is not much reason to believe he will suddenly become a 30% guy again. Unless he is fed red-zone looks like he was in 2013, there is not a big touchdown season on the horizon.

John Brown

Everyone’s favorite breakout candidate and Fitzgerald’s running mate John Brown saw six red-zone targets his rookie year. Unsurprisingly based on his 5-10, 179-pound frame, Brown was not very successful with those looks, converting just one into a touchdown.

The easy rebuttal to Brown’s lack of success is it was only one year, and Brown should develop as he becomes more comfortable in the NFL and as the Cardinals’ quarterback situation improves. While that is fair, a study of Brown’s ready-made analog would suggest his rookie struggles in the red zone are likely to continue.

Despite his relative success, T.Y. Hilton has been a disaster in the red zone throughout his career. He has converted six of his 37 career red-zone targets into touchdowns and has not had a single season with better than an 18% conversion rate. In fact, Hilton has more touchdowns from 30 or more yards (11) than he does from inside of 30 yards (7) in his career.

While Brown is not the exact same player as Hilton, he is likely headed down a similar career path. That path will lead to big games and exciting performances, but it dead ends at a touchdown ceiling which will likely prevent Brown from entering the upper echelons of the wide receiver position.