Three-Point Stance: Gauging fantasy values of PHI's Mat(t)hews
Once a desirable fantasy locale, Philadelphia isn’t exactly a breeding ground for fantasy studs, at least according to most. In this edition of “The Stance,”Brad Evans and Brandon Funston, despite popular belief, exhibit some “brotherly love” over key Eagles commodities.
Before tackling our three burning questions, Andy Behrens also addressed the Eagles in a comprehensive fantasy team preview.
[Yahoo Fantasy Football is open for the 2016 season. Sign up now]
Many believe Jordan Matthews (46.4 ADP, WR26), deployed primarily in the slot, underperformed under Chip Kelly’s direction. Expected to see more action outside in Doug Pederson’s system, he could be on the precipice of a breakout. OVER or UNDER 999.5 receiving yards this season?
Brandon – OVER. In his third NFL season, can he improve by a whopping three receiving yards over last season’s tally (997)? You bet he can. I’m a fan of Matthews’ talent and especially his competitive drive. And you have to love his situation as the obvious go-to wideout. Philly allowed the fifth-most points in the league last season and, as a result, it pushed the offense to attempt the fifth-most passes. And, while the Philly defense could be better simply because of a change to Jim Schwartz at D-coordinator and the continued maturation of the team’s in-house defensive talent, it’s still a head-scratcher that it did virtually nothing to improve the unit in the draft or in free agency – all of this is to say that there is likely to continue to be issues on defense that push Philly to the air. And if that’s the case, Matthews, who was a top 12 fantasy WR from Weeks 9-17, should be in the best position to benefit again.
Brad – UNDER. The wideout attracted an appreciable amount of looks (128 TGTs) last season but managed a pedestrian 1.81 fantasy points per target, an outcome that ranked No. 36 among WRs. His 66.7 red-zone catch percentage (No. 12 at position) was outstanding, but unless Ertz resembles the nuclear weapon of late last year or Nelson Agholor gains respectability, double teams will be aplenty. Plus, the QB situation between Sam Bradford, Carson Wentz and Chase Daniel could be volatile throughout the year.
Essentially, Matthews is a fringy WR2 in 12-team formats. His ceiling is what Jeremy Maclin accomplished in Pederson’s system last year (87-1088-9 in 15 Gs). His floor is what he tallied as a rookie in 2014 (67-872-8). Mark me down for a final somewhere in between … 80-995-8.
The ‘Missing ‘T,’ Ryan Mathews (59.9 ADP, RB24), has rarely delivered on his massive promise. Various ailments have greatly hindered his production. Only once has he played a full season. No surprise, he’s landed inside the position’s top-12 just twice in five seasons. Is the following statement BELIEVE or MAKE BELIEVE? Mathews heads up the Eagles proposed RBBC and finishes inside the RB top-20 in points per game (10 G minimum).
Brandon – While a supposed RBBC will be in effect in Philly, I think there’s little chance that someone other than Mathews will be leading this backfield charge. And Mathews was excellent on a per touch basis last season, finishing juts 1.1 fantasy points per game behind teammate DeMarco Murray despite handling the pigskin 110 times less than Murray. In fact, from a per touch fantasy production perspective, Mathews has always been pretty good. Maybe not so much from a health and hold-on-to-the-ball perspective, but that’s not what we are debating here.
Murray was right at the top 20 mark among RBs in points per game last season. With what will likely be a similar workload to what Murray handled last season, I expect Mathews to do more with his opportunities and crash the top 20, BELIEVE.
Brad – As many of you are already aware, Mathews and I are no longer mutually exclusive. Though loyal to one another, our relationship isn’t monogamous. Still, my feelings toward the RB remain affectionate, especially this year.
Of course I BELIEVE the rusher will crack the top-20 in fantasy points per game. Though Wendell Smallwood and Darren Sproles will carve our minor roles, all indications suggest Mathews will tote some 15-17 touches per contest. Recall in a minimized role last year he averaged 5.0 yards per carry, gained 15 or more yards on 37.5 percent of his rush attempts and ranked No. 4 in fantasy points per opportunity. Odds of him getting eaten by a mountain lion are strong, but he’s an undervalued option around pick No. 60 overall. Roughly 1,100-1,300 combined yards with 6-8 TDs are attainable.
Similar to both Mat(t)hews, Zach Ertz has been an endless fantasy tease. Though he finished the 2015 season on a very high note, totaling the second-most valuable TE line from Weeks 14-17 (35-450-1) apprehension remains omnipresent. Going around pick No. 97 overall in early drafts (TE8) is Ertz OVERVALUED, UNDERVALUED or PROPERLY VALUED?
Brandon – PROPERLY VALUED, or at least close. I think he’s worth a top 10 selection at the position, but he’s on the backend of that list. My biggest issue is that he just hasn’t shown himself to be much of a red zone threat. He’s ranked outside the top 16 RZ targets each of the past two seasons, and he’s found pay dirt on just five of the 133 catches he’s hauled in over that two-year span. There’s been an average of 15 tight ends that have reached the five touchdown mark each of the past three season, and Ertz has yet to be included in that group. It’s pretty hard to finish well inside the tight end top 10 when you can’t contribute at least 5-7 touchdowns.
Brad – PROPERLY VALUED. In Pederson’s scheme, Travis Kelce finished No. 8 in total points last year and in 2014, a good sign Ertz will do the same.
The Eagles TE is a near lock for 100-plus targets and his red-zone share should increase, predictable outcomes that will greatly enhance his TD potential. Assuming it all comes together, bank on near identical numbers in receptions and yards with his TD total jumping into the 5-7 range.
Harass Brad on Twitter @YahooNoise and Brandon @1befun.
