Sunderland Season Preview
Every season the ultimate goal for any manager and team is to improve on last season. The task ahead of Dick Advocaat and Sunderland is to improve on the last three. At least. But the good news is – that task shouldn’t be too difficult. Or perhaps put another way, if they don’t perform better than the last three seasons the Black Cats’ Premier League luck might run out and their status expire.
Sunderland have finished 16th, 14th and 17th in the last three campaigns averaging a slither over 38-pts. The ‘magic’ 40-pt total has only been hit three times in the club’s eight-year stint. And had it not been for their recent hoodoo over bitter north-east rivals Newcastle United – bringing five wins from their last five meetings and unbeaten in seven – Sunderland would’ve been relegated in each of the last three seasons.
The 2014/15 campaign was perhaps their most disappointing. Certainly their most dull. Sunderland drew no less than 17 matches – that’s 44% - nine of which were goal-less. It was a shocker, but without any shocks. The season started poorly, got marginally worse. Then marginally better. Then ended. Whether the fans’ collective sigh of relief was at staying up or just because it was all over is open to debate. Even in survival, there was nothing great about the escape. PL status was secured with a 0-0 draw (of course) at Arsenal. If the 2014/15 season was a single match all but the most faithful would’ve been streaming for the exits by Christmas.
Dutch courage…
In fairness, boss Dick Advocaat can only be judged on the last eight matches. Gus Poyet paid for the turgid previous 30 with the sack in mid-March – the camel’s vertebrae finally fracturing after the humiliating 4-0 reverse at home to Aston Villa. The incoming Dutch master was bold, putting three forwards on the pitch in a 4-3-3 formation and it produced their best form of the season (W3 D3 L2). The transformation wasn’t spectacular but did the trick.
After a brief retirement at the end of last season – apparently a month was long enough for Mrs Advocaat to usher hubby back to work, if we can believe what we read! – the rebuild was quickly underway. Sunderland have been one of the most active and decisive PL team in the summer transfer window, with Advocaat clearly prioritizing the defensive area.
On-loan center-back Sebastien Coates came into the side after the 4-1 defeat at home to Crystal Palace (replacing Santiago Vergini) and did enough in the remaining six matches to earn himself a permanent contract. Right-back Adam Matthews was signed from Celtic for £2.5 million and French international center-back Younes Kaboul poached from Tottenham for around £3m. This after a protracted but ultimately fruitless pursuit of Nicolas Lombaerts from Zenit St Petersburg. The Argentine Vergini has since been allowed to leave.
The next - and arguably more difficult – job is adding the goal threat absent last season. Jermain Defoe was added in January and will shoulder the goal scoring responsibilities with near namesake Jeremain Lens, an £8m purchase from Dynamo Kiev. Advocaat knows Lens well from spells at AK Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven and has the option to use him in a central striking role or wide left. He is quick and direct and his role may depend on the outcome of winger Adam Johnson’s legal case or whether a buying club can be found for Steven Fletcher. The striker made just three scoring appearances in his 20 starts last season and has never recovered the momentum of his first four matches for Sunderland, where he scored five times. Likewise, Danny Graham and Connor Wickham have never looked like providing an answer to Sunderland’s goal scoring problems and would be sacrificed if alternatives could be brought in.
Advocaat will not have a bottomless pit to draw on though. The money men will be acutely aware that only seven teams have spent more than Sunderland over the last five seasons. And those seven filled the top seven places in the Pl last season. So we probably cannot expect more than another one addition. Which leads us to ponder how Dick Advocaat’s men might line up next season and how much value they might be to Fantasy managers…
Likely line-up…
In goal, Costel Pantilimon was one of the few (perhaps only) bright spots from last season. The ex-Man City stopper came into the side after a severe case of net rash sidelined Vito Mannone (who was not seen again after conceding ten in two matches at Southampton and at home to Arsenal). Despite Sunderland’s miserable season, only two keepers could boast a superior clean sheet ratio (11 in 28 matches: 39%). The giant Romanian is a guaranteed starter and if Sunderland’s new defensive acquisitions can have the desired effect, Pantilimon could be a reasonably priced alternative to the usual suspects.
Billy Jones and Adam Matthews will contest the right-back slot. Jones only played 14 times last season, but missed just four minutes of Advocaat’s eight in charge. On the opposite flank, Patrick van Aanholt was another bright spot (okay, there was another…). His total of five assists was only bettered by three other full-backs - Everton’s Leighton Baines (ten), Chelsea’s Branislav Ivanovic (six) and his Dutch counterpart at Newcastle Darryl Janmaat (also six). In the PL’s third worst attacking team that is no mean effort and worthy of note.
The summer acquisition of Sebastien Coates (permanently) and Younes Kaboul suggests the central defensive pair. Club captain John O’Shea has the versatility to provide cover right across the backline and only missed two matches last term (returning 12 clean sheets), so likely to figure regularly. Wes Brown’s year extension was something of a surprise (not all fans put it as politely as that…), but don’t expect Fantasy managers to be as charitable.
On paper, Sunderland have enough midfield quality and variety to compete in the PL. Dick Advocaat’s transfer policy – i.e. sort out the defense, then add attacking threat – would seem to bear this out. Jack Rodwell, Seb Larsson, Jordi Gomez, Lee Catermole and Adam Johnson are all players that could, should, or used to be playing at a better level than relegation dogfighters. Likewise, all seem to have fatal flaws in their game – which probably explains why they are not currently.
Rodwell’s fitness issues means he has never managed any momentum from his early days at Everton, through Man City or thus far at Sunderland. Larsson’s dead ball quality is as good as you’ll find outside the top six (perhaps top four), but he received more Yellow Cards (ten) than combined goals or assists (6) last term. You expect that from Lee Catermole (actually, you can expect more – Lee saw Yellow 14 times in 26 starts) but his combative role is key for the likes of Jordi Gomez to create. But four goals and two assists is – like Gomez – too lightweight a return. Adam Johnson’s particular weakness might yet land him in jail and the signing of wide-man Jeremain Lens and lengthy pursuit of Stewart Downing suggests that Johnson’s days might be numbered.
The role of new £8m signing Lens and the way Sunderland set-up next season may well depend on what signings are still to come. Advocaat ended lastly season boldly with three up front, with Jermain Defoe and Conor Wickham supporting Steven Fletcher or Danny Graham from wide positions. But there was an element of last chance saloon about the formation. Defoe remains the best finisher in the side and both his and Sunderland’s goal threat diminishes the further away from the penalty area he is. But the pace, directness and midfielder categorization makes Lens the most attractive option from a FL point of view. Fletcher and Wickham managed just five goals apiece last season and – along with Danny Graham – look as close to the exit as the first team.
So what can we expect…?
Dick Advocaat’s record suggests improvement. Sunderland’s summer spending suggests improvement. But their Premier League record urges caution. Over the last eight seasons Sunderland have spent a lot of money, whipped up plenty of hope and delivered very little. They already look better equipped than last season, but still a player or two short of mid-table. So expect improvement, but not much.
If Advocaat can maintain, even improve, their defensive record then Costel Pantilimon and Patrick van Aanholt should be on your radar, as cut price alternatives. Jermain Defoe makes some appeal based on PL pedigree – which is thin on the ground among Forwards – and price, of course. And for a midfield wildcard Jeremain Lens’ paces, power and relative unknown qualities might be worth a punt in the opening quarter of the season. But these are the only Black Cats that should be crossing your path this FL season…
Matt Nesbitt is a one-time player, long-time tipster and full-time fan of the beautiful game. He is a regular guest and the driving force behind Premier League Match Predictor. Email: mattnesbitt
